Welcome to Sleeper Picks. Sleeper’s newest offering promised plenty of entertainment and action, and they delivered. We will break down our top three picks for tonight’s NBA action. Sleeper is quickly becoming one of the most popular season-long fantasy platforms, and they are expanding into other areas based on demand. Each week in this space, we’ll talk about some strategy for the new platform while providing our favorite NBA more/less picks.
NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (3/6)
John Collins (F/C – UTA): 16.5 points
Lauri Markkanen will be sidelined for another game on Wednesday, which makes Collins value at 16.5. Collins has recorded 17 or more points in four of his last five games. He has not really upped his shooting volume with Markkanen sidelined but is expected to be more active tonight against a competitive Chicago Bulls team. Collins will be better off at the four in this matchup, so if you have the wherewithal to wait this total out until closer to game time when the starting lineup is revealed, you can determine whether or not this is the high-probability play intended. The Bulls have surrendered 24.04 points per game to the power forward position but just 21.93 to opposing fives. Nikola Vucevic is not an ideal matchup for an undersized big like Collins, so jab the More on Collins only if he is starting at the four.
Pick: More
Damian Lillard (G – MIL): 2.5 three pointers made
Dame has been heating up from deep since the all-star break, draining three or more three pointers in each of his last five games. The percentage from deep is still not as good as it could be, so there is still another level for Lillard to reach to truly transform from Damian back to Dame Time. Dame should be all the way up for a matchup against Steph Curry and the Warriors and is going to take enough threes for the More to hit here. Efficiency will be key, but the Warriors have surrendered an exploitable 2.61 three pointers per game to the point guard position. Dap the More on Damian for Wednesday night.
Pick: More
Chet Holmgren (F/C – OKC): 9.5 rebounds
I expected this total to be set at 8.5 after Chet managed just seven rebounds on Monday, but for one reason or another, it has been raised to 9.5. Chet has recorded nine or fewer rebounds in four of his past five games played and has hauled in four, six, and 10 rebounds in his three games against the Portland Trail Blazers this season. Yes, the 10 proves he can haul in 10 or more again tonight, but he’s averaging just 7.5 on the season, aligning head-to-head data with form and averages. This is a Less play all the way. Hit the Less on Holmgren for Wednesday night basketball.
Pick: Less
Writers note: The lines are constantly changing on Sleeper (and sometimes expiring), so there is a high probability that one or all of the numbers may no longer be the same when you open your app. There are excellent values when they are first posted, with the only catch being that they are not all released at the same time. Vigilance could provide a solid return on investment this season, literally.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.