Pour one out for Tyjae Spears fantasy managers. Shortly after the NFL’s legal tampering period kicked off, a report came out that the Tennessee Titans had agree to terms with former Cowboys RB Tony Pollard. (Former) Titans RB Derrick Henry is a free agent, but it appears Tennessee is looking to move forward with Pollard and, presumably, second-year RB Tyjae Spears.

Let’s examine the immediate implications and fantasy impact of Pollard agreeing to terms with the Titans.

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Tony Pollard Agrees to Deal with Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard is expected to sign a three-year, $24 million contract with the Tennessee Titans, according to multiple sources.

Pollard is part of the Titans’ plan to replace longtime lead RB Derrick Henry, who spent eight seasons with Tennessee but isn’t expected to be re-signed as he hits free agency himself. Pollard will most likely share work with second-year RB Tyjae Spears.

Dallas Cowboys fans and fantasy managers were expecting big things from Pollard last season since he was no longer going to be splitting work with Ezekiel Elliott. But Pollard’s 2023 season was considered a disappointment — at least relative to his early-second-round average draft position.

After averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per target over his first four NFL seasons, Pollard averaged 4.0 yards per carry and 4.6 yards per target in 2023. It was probably naive to think such stellar efficiency numbers would carry over seamlessly from a part-time role to a lead role. Pollard, who turns 27 in April, had never logged more than 193 carries in a season before 2023 and wound up with 252 carries last year. But it’s also possible that Pollard played at least part of the season at less than 100% after sustaining a fractured leg and high ankle sprain in a playoff game against the 49ers at the end of the 2022 season. The injury required “TightRope” surgery, and Pollard himself has said he didn’t feel as if he had completely healed until Week 11 of 2023.

Even with improved healthy, it’s hard to see the move from Dallas to Tennessee as a positive for Pollard’s fantasy value. The Cowboys scored an NFL-high 509 points last season and ranked fifth in total yardage. The Titans finished 27th in points and 28th in yardage. Pollard goes from having Dak Prescott as his quarterback to working with Will Levis, a largely unproven second-year man. The Titans’ offensive line is considered an area of weakness.

But there’s optimism in Nashville. The Titans replaced head coach Mike Vrabel with Brian Callahan, who served as offensive coordinator for the Bengals from 2019 to 2023. Bill Callahan, Brian’s father and one of the most well-regarded offensive line coaches in football, takes over as Tennessee’s OL coach, and the Titans are expected to sign free-agent center Lloyd Cushenberry as part of a badly needed makeover up front.

Although it’s hard to tell exactly what the Titans’ offense will look like in 2024 with Brian Callahan and new offensive coordinator Nick Holz at the controls, it’s probably a good sign for Pollard that Titans RBs had a 22.3% target share last year, eighth highest in the league. Henry and Spears combined for 63 targets in the nine games Levis started last season, so Levis doesn’t mind checking down to his running backs. Improved firepower at the WR and TE positions could certainly change the target distribution for the Titans, but Tennessee had one of the worst pass-catching groups in the league last season and is probably destined to be below average in that area again in 2024. Pollard has had at least 39 receptions in each of his last three seasons.

Hard to love Tennessee as a landing spot for Pollard, but one reason for optimism: Titans RBs had a 22.3% target share last year, 8th highest in the league.

— Pat Fitzmaurice (@Fitz_FF) March 11, 2024

Spears had a promising rookie season, and some fantasy managers were hoping to see Spears in a lead role with the Titans this year. He finished with 838 yards from scrimmage last year on 152 touches. But Spears reportedly doesn’t have an ACL in one of his knees, so the Titans might be looking to carefully manage his workload. Pollard did his best work as a timeshare back in Dallas, so it seems inevitable that Pollard and Spears will share the load.

When free agency and the 2024 NFL Draft have wound down, expect to see Pollard’s ADP settle into the low-end RB2/high-end RB3 range, with Spears as a low-end RB3. In dynasty formats, Pollard and Spears should both be regarded as low-end RB2s.

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