Late Sunday night, on the eve of the NFL’s legal tampering period, reports broke that former Seahawks and Broncos QB Russell Wilson is signing a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers. With the Broncos on the hook for the majority of Wilson’s salary, he is expected to sign for the $1.21M veteran minimum in Pittsburgh.
Let’s examine the immediate implications and fantasy impact of Wilson signing with the Steelers.
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Russell Wilson Signs with Pittsburgh Steelers
Russell Wilson is expected to sign a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The Broncos are still on the hook for $38 million of Wilson’s $39 million salary, Schefter reports, and the Steelers will pay Wilson a reported $1.21 million in 2024, making Wilson a budget-conscious solution to their QB problem.
The 35-year-old Wilson threw for 3,017 yards in 15 games last season, with 26 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. Wilson’s completion percentage (66.4%), yards per attempt (7.2) and passer rating (98.0) all improved after his disastrous 2022 debut with the Broncos, but there seemed to be friction between Wilson and first-year Broncos head coach Sean Payton, who benched Wilson for the final two games of the season.
Pittsburgh entered the offseason in dire need of QB help after seemingly waiving the white flag on the Kenny Pickett experiment. Pickett, the 20th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, made 12 starts in each of his first two seasons and did little to make Steelers fans think he could be the team’s quarterback of the future. He averaged 172.5 passing yards per game and 6.4 yards per attempt last season, with six touchdown passes and four interceptions.
Wilson will be asked to pump life into a Pittsburgh passing game that includes the intriguing WR duo of Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, plus capable young TE Pat Freiermuth. There have been reports that the Steelers are open to trading away Johnson, though it’s unclear whether the signing of Wilson makes the possibility of a Johnson trade less likely.
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Wilson’s addition could bode well for Pickens, who’s flashed superstar potential but hasn’t been a consistent performer over his first two NFL seasons. Pickens had 63 catches for 1,140 yards last season and averaged a league-high 18.1 yards per catch. Pickens topped 100 receiving yards in five games last season, including a memorable 195-yard, two-TD outburst against the Bengals in Week 16, but he was held under 50 receiving yards in 9-of-17 games. Wilson was among the leaders in deep-ball rate last season, with 13.4% of his pass attempts covering 20 or more yards. He helped D.K. Metcalf become a big-play star in Seattle, and Wilson facilitated a 10 TD season for WR Courtland Sutton in Denver last year.
As for Wilson’s fantasy value, he finished QB14 in total fantasy points last season and QB13 in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks who made six or more starts. The Steelers ran the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the league last season (46.7%). Part of that was undoubtedly due to the limitations of Pickett and late-season starter Mason Rudolph, but the Steelers were also happy to leverage the talents of RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
Pittsburgh’s new offensive coordinator, former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, is fond of the running game, too. Atlanta ran the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the league last season (47.8%), although the Falcons had QB problems of their own. Wilson’s arrival might mean more a more balanced Pittsburgh offense, but it’s unlikely that the Steelers will become pass-happy in 2024.
Wilson hasn’t been as prolific a runner in recent years as he was for most of his 10-year stay in Seattle — no surprise for a quarterback who’s now in his mid-30s — but Wilson isn’t completely inert. He ran for 341 yards and three touchdowns last season. It was his highest rushing total since 2020.
Considering Wilson’s age, his limited rushing potential and the possibility that the Steelers will skew run-heavy, Wilson is best viewed as a midrange to low-end QB2 in redraft leagues for 2024. For dynasty, I have him ranked QB30, but he’s still a worthwhile asset and starting-caliber player in superflex leagues.
Wilson’s arrival in Pittsburgh casts doubt on Kenny Pickett’s NFL future. Pickett will now be a redraft afterthought in 2024, undraftable in all but the deepest of leagues. In dynasty, you’d be lucky to get a third-round 2024 rookie draft pick for him.
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