While the 2023 NFL season is over, fantasy football is a year-long thing. Therefore, it’s never too early to look ahead to next year.
Today, I look back at the 2023 season, highlighting some of the top ADP values, breakouts, and busts at the quarterback position while also taking an early look at potential candidates in these areas for the 2024 season.
- More Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB | WR | TE
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Quarterback Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts
2023 General Review
It’s a new age in the NFL for the quarterback position. The average opening-day age for the top 12 quarterbacks last season was 25.9. All of the top 12 quarterbacks are under 31, with Dak Prescott the only one older than 28. Meanwhile, only three of the top 12 quarterbacks had over 390 rushing yards – Josh Allen (524), Jalen Hurts (605), and Lamar Jackson (821). With several first-time top-12 finishes in 2023, the quarterback position has never been deeper for fantasy players.
2023 Top ADP Values
The veteran had a disappointing 2022 season, averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game, totaling 23 passing touchdowns. However, Prescott was outstanding in Mike McCarthy’s first year as the play caller. He finished the season as the QB3, averaging 20.2 fantasy points per game, totaling 36 passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL. Furthermore, Prescott put up a top-three finish despite averaging 12.6 fantasy points per game over the first five weeks. By comparison, he was the QB1 over the final 11 weeks, averaging 24 fantasy points per game.
Rarely do quarterbacks have fantasy success in their rookie season. Stroud was only the fourth quarterback since 2012 to end his rookie year with a top-10 finish. More importantly, he led the NFL in passing yards per game (273.9) and touchdown touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.6-1), joining Tom Brady and Joe Montana as the only quarterbacks in the past 50 years to lead the league in both categories in the same season. The only difference is that Stroud is the only one to do it as a rookie.
2023 Top Breakouts
Many doubted Love heading into his first season as the starter. He began the year on fire, averaging three passing touchdowns and 21.7 fantasy points per game over the first two weeks. After hitting a slump, leading to many calling for his benching, the former Utah State star proved he is a franchise-caliber quarterback. Love was the QB2 over the final seven games of the fantasy season, averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns and 21.6 fantasy points per contest despite dealing with a banged-up receiving core.
After starting the final five regular season games as a rookie, Purdy had a breakout first year as the starter. The former Mr. Irrelevant pick finished the 2023 season as the QB6, averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game. He had the third-most passing touchdowns in the NFL, finishing only five behind Dak Prescott and one behind Jordan Love despite playing one fewer game. Furthermore, Purdy took advantage of his elite receiving core, tossing three or more touchdowns in nearly a third of the contests.
2023 Top Busts
Mahomes has only two QB1 finishes over his seven-year career. Yet, he gets drafted as the QB1 in most fantasy leagues every year. Last season, the superstar finished as the QB8, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game, averaging only 0.4 more fantasy points per game than Russell Wilson. Furthermore, Mahomes had the second-fewest passing touchdowns of his career as the starter while setting a career-high in interceptions (14). While fantasy players should consider him a top-five option for next season, Mahomes is no longer in the QB1 conversation.
The fantasy industry had high expectations for Lawrence heading into his third NFL season. Unfortunately, he was a massive bust despite the addition of Calvin Ridley. The former Clemson star’s touchdown production declined by four while his interceptions nearly doubled compared to the 2022 season. Lawrence finished the year as the QB12, averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game. However, he was the QB15 on a points-per-game basis among quarterbacks with at least six starts. Hopefully, Lawrence and the Jaguars turn things around in 2024.
2024 General Preview
Last year, C.J. Stroud was a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Meanwhile, Anthony Richardson was on his way to that feat before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Yet, the 2024 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks projects to be better than last year’s group. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy are likely top-10 NFL Draft picks. While fantasy players shouldn’t expect them to set the NFL on fire in their rookie season, the league has no shortage of young star quarterbacks.
2024 Potential ADP Values
Murray missed half of the 2023 season recovering from a torn ACL he suffered late the year before. Yet, the former Oklahoma star averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game, totaling 10 passing touchdowns in eight contests. By comparison, he averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game and had 14 passing touchdowns in 11 contests in 2022. Murray will be over a year removed from the torn ACL next season, be playing in his second year in the system, and likely have Marvin Harrison Jr. added to his receiving core.
Despite coming off a torn Achilles injury at his age, Minnesota wants Cousins to return next year. Fantasy players should hope for the same outcome, as the veteran has been an appealing fantasy quarterback since joining the Vikings. He was the QB7 on a points-per-game basis last season, averaging 18.7 fantasy points per contest, a higher average than C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, and Patrick Mahomes. Cousins will have an ADP outside the top 12 but will finish the year as a QB1 again in 2024.
2024 Potential Breakouts
Fantasy players would robbed of the chance to see Richardson have a massive rookie season. However, removing the matchup where he suffered the season-ending shoulder injury, the former Florida star was the QB2 in 2023 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 22.8 fantasy points per contest. Despite playing only four games, the rookie ranked seventh among quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns (four), finishing only two behind third place. Richardson could finish as the QB1 in his sophomore year unless there is some complication from his shoulder injury.
While the Titans are entering a rebuilding phase, Levis will be the full-time starter for the first time next season. The former Kentucky star shocked the fantasy community, dropping four passing touchdowns and 26.6 fantasy points in his career debut. Unfortunately, he had four passing touchdowns the rest of the year, averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game. More importantly, he struggled to stay healthy to end his rookie season. Levis could have high-end QB2 value next year if Tennessee improves their receiving core and offensive line in the offseason.
2024 Potential Busts
The former Alabama star began the 2023 season on fire, averaging 2.7 passing touchdowns and 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. However, Tagovailoa’s production fell off a cliff in the season half, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular season contests. Unfortunately, Miami has three starting offensive linemen set to be free agents in a few weeks and limited means to improve the team around the quarterback. Between the late-season struggles and lack of rushing upside, Tagovailoa is on my do-not-drat list.
Last year, C.J. Stroud had a top-10 season as a rookie. However, he is an outlier and not likely the start of a trend. He landed in the perfect situation to make him a fantasy star as a rookie. Meanwhile, Williams should be the top pick in all superflex dynasty rookie drafts. Yet, fantasy players shouldn’t expect a massive fantasy year out of him in 2024. Drafting the former USC star as anything more than a high-upside QB2 in redraft leagues is a mistake.
More Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep
- Erickson’s Early Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Notes: QB | WR
- 5 Players Experts Avoid Drafting
- 3 Breakout & Bounceback Candidates
- Early Must-Have Running Backs: Feb
- Early Must-Have Wide Receivers: Feb
- Early Must-Have QBs & TEs: Feb
- Early Undervalued Players: RB | WR
- Early Overvalued Players: RB | WR
- QB2s With Top-5 Upside: Feb
- RB3s With RB1 Upside: Feb
- TE2s With Top-5 Upside: Feb
- Players to Avoid: QB | RB | TE
- 3 Early Breakout Candidates
- 6 Early Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
- Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB | WR | TE
- RB Dead Zone Running Backs: Draft or Fade?
- Most Polarizing Running Backs to Draft
- Most Polarizing Wide Receivers to Draft
- Tight End Draft Dart Throws
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
