The Florida Swing is a real gauntlet this season. The PGA Tour has blessed us with some incredibly riveting golf this winter but as we cross the vernal equinox we are also culminating our jaunt through the Sunshine State at the Valspar Championship. Last week at The Players was yet another display of dominance for Sir Scott Scheffler, Esq. He will not return to his diminutive “Scottie” until he shaves off his championship beard.
Scheffler’s reign over the golf world has never been stronger. I advised everyone last week that he was as good of a chalky option as one could put in their DFS lineups and maxed out at 35% exposure. This was paired marvelously with Xander Schauffele and Brian Harman, along with value leverage hammers Sahith Theegala and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. I almost wish the Florida Swing would continue in perpetuity with how locked in we’ve been over the last month plus.
PGA DFS: Valspar Championship (2024)
(Salary Prices Courtesy of DraftKings)
The Valspar Championship will mercifully not feature the world’s best golfer but this is a stronger field than in previous years at Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Fla. The players will need to navigate a very demanding Copperhead Course, home of The Snake Pit. Holes 16, 17 & 18 are the most difficult closing three-hole stretch on Tour. The par-71 track stretches to around 7,300 yards, with a unique mix of four par-5 holes and five par-3s. Accuracy is essentially everything here, with extreme demands put on finding fairways and sticking it close on approach from more than 175 yards in most cases.
Weather is expected to be a major factor on Friday for the second round, with strong winds and rainy spells. The course doesn’t need inclement weather to bare jagged teeth. Only twice has the winner of the Valspar finished with a score better than 10-under par. The players who are strong in the accuracy department off the tee will be preferred. I mixed various approach metrics to differentiate between the golfers. The Bermuda rough is unruly, so long-distance scrambling is mixed with strokes gained around the green and bogey avoidance. There is a lot of chalk concentrated at the top of this field, so it will be important to limit exposure to no more than 30% on any one golfer when building lineups. With a forked tongue and fangs dripping with venom, let’s dive in.
High-Priced ($9,000 & Above)
- Chalk Plays: Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, Cameron Young, Nick Taylor
- Chalk Fades: Justin Thomas, Brian Harman, Tony Finau
- Leverage Plays: Jordan Spieth, Min Woo Lee
Mid-Priced ($7,600 to $8,900)
- Chalk Plays: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Aaron Rai, Doug Ghim
- Chalk Fades: Keith Mitchell, Maverick McNealy, Taylor Moore
- Leverage Plays: Beau Hossler, Sepp Straka, Thorbjorn Olesen
Value-Priced ($7,500 & Below)
- Chalk Plays: Daniel Berger, Joel Dahmen, Bud Cauley
- Chalk Fades: Billy Horschel, Lucas Glover, Sam Ryder, Andrew Novak, Carson Young
- Leverage Plays: Taylor Montgomery, Brendan Todd, Ryan Fox, Adam Schenk, Davis Thompson, Ryo Hisatsune, Kevin Yu, Alex Smalley, Ryan Moore, Chan Kim, Hayden Springer, Tyler Duncan, Kevin Roy