The DFS hot streak through the PGA Tour’s Florida Swing continued in a big way last week at Bay Hill. Champion Scottie Scheffler was in 30% of my lineups, many of which were paired with Will Zalatoris. Most of our fades also hit the skids at Arnie’s place. Scheffler has found some strong putting form to go with his immaculate ball striking. This times up perfectly with the opportunity to repeat at The Players Championship this week, where he dominated with a five-stroke victory last year.
The Players is considered the “fifth major” by a great many golf fans. TPC Sawgrass is an outstanding championship golf venue, teeming with excitement and stunning variance. There has never been a repeat champion in the 50-year history of the event. If Scheffler is to break that incomparable streak, he will need to command that new mallet on some of the most challenging surfaces on Tour.
Sawgrass is Pete Dye’s Mona Lisa. The wry smile is a peculiar little 7,200-yard stroll through the Northern Florida swamplands. Distance bears no advantage here. Considered a positional golf course, Dye tricks the golfer with abnormal sight lines and more hazards than native reptiles. One must plan every shot to prepare for the next, and execute it as such. The greens are Bermuda overseeded with Poa, Bent and Rye. The complexes are minuscule and as well-guarded as any in the world, while also carrying an extreme level of undulation. The signature 17th hole is an isthmus jutting into a serene lake, mown into a two-tiered potato chip peninsula that looks as small as a sun hat floating at only 140 yards from the tee box. Dye was a diabolical man and, like me, loved carnage.
PGA DFS: The Players (2024)
(Salary Prices Courtesy of DraftKings)
Since the level of variance is to the extreme, my player pool has expanded considerably. Key metrics for this event hinge on accuracy off the tee and proximity on approach from 150 yards and fewer. There are birdie opportunities to be had, with just as many bogeys to be avoided. Sawgrass greens are some of the toughest to hit, so there is a massive emphasis on form around the green. Past performance in this event is a plus but not heavily weighted. Recent form (last 24 rounds) carries more consideration in my model this week. All stats were filtered for courses on Bermuda. Let’s hope we’re “better than most” this week.
High-Priced ($9,000 & Above)
- Chalk Plays: Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Shane Lowry
- Chalk Fades: Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama
- Leverage Plays: Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth
Mid-Priced ($7,600 to $8,900)
- Chalk Plays: Russell Henley, Ben An, Brian Harman
- Chalk Fades: Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, Tom Hoge
- Leverage Plays: Sahith Theegala, Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott, Chris Kirk
Value-Priced ($7,500 & Below)
- Chalk Plays: Keith Mitchell, Erik van Rooyen, Nick Taylor, Austin Eckroat
- Chalk Fades: Alex Noren, Doug Ghim, Aaron Rai, Andrew Novak, Carson Young
- Leverage Plays: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Jake Knapp, Nicolai Hojgaard, Beau Hossler, Chan Kim, Steve Stricker
