This is a guest post from PoolGenius, a site that provides data-driven NCAA bracket picks, projections, and tools.
We’ve spent 100+ hours poring over power ratings and advanced statistical game logs for all 68 NCAA tournament teams.
Besides understanding how leading prediction sources view each team, we’ve identified the exception cases (injury situations, lineup changes, etc.) that trip up even the most respected computer ratings.
See below for 10 bracket research highlights, plus a link to expert brackets that give you the best chance to win.
NCAA Bracket Picks from PoolGenius »
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10 Bracket Picking Tips For 2024
To win more bracket pools, you need to understand:
- Each team’s odds to advance
- How popular of a pick it is
The insights below revolve around one or both of those data points.
1) Let’s start with No. 1 Connecticut. Compared to top NCAA seeds over the past 13 years, Connecticut has both the fifth highest tournament win odds (based on our projections) and the fifth-highest pick popularity in bracket pools. So it doesn’t seem like bracket pickers in 2024 are piling on to Connecticut more than you’d expect them to, just because they are the defending champs. Sometimes the top seed in the bracket is such a popular pick that your best bet is almost always to avoid them. That’s not necessarily the case in 2024.
2) Yes, Connecticut is technically an overvalued NCAA champion pick in 2024 bracket pools. They have about 31% nationwide popularity as a champion pick, but less than 25% odds to win it all. However, sportsbook betting odds, which are typically very good predictors, also give Connecticut the best chance to win the 2024 NCAA tournament—and by a solid margin. Some sources, like Ken Pomeroy, disagree, and give No. 1 Houston the edge. So it really all depends on what projections you trust the most.
3) Comparing our tournament projections to nationwide pick popularity for higher seeded teams, No. 2 Arizona and No. 4 Auburn look like the most undervalued NCAA champion picks in 2024, though they each have less than a 1-in-10 chance to win it all (with Auburn riskier). Picking a team like that to make a very deep run means that you are taking on extra risk to avoid the top favorites, but if they pull it off (and knock off some popular picks in the process), your bracket should be in fantastic shape. But in some pools, especially smaller ones, it’s probably too much risk.
4) Compared to the past five years, there’s a lower chance than average that a No. 1 seed will win the title in 2024. However, those odds (46%) are higher than they were last year (42%), when the tournament looked wide open and then played out true to form, with a No. 4 seed, two No. 5 seeds, and a No. 9 seed in the Final Four. (By the way, read those seed numbers again, because they are proof positive that in years when unexpected things happen, even getting just one Final Four team right can be enough to win a bracket pool.)
5) The 2024 bracket has some particularly strong No. 9 seeds by historical standards, led by No. 9 Texas A&M, No. 9 Michigan State, and No. 9 TCU. It’s more likely than not that a No. 9 seed makes the Sweet 16 this year, and all four No. 9 seeds are being undervalued by the public in March Madness pools.
6) The No. 12 and lower seeds in 2024 are weaker than usual, due to a lot of upsets happening in conference tournaments this year and some of the top mid-majors migrating up to the No. 11 seed line. As a side note, don’t buy that hogwash that you need to pick at least one 12-over-5 upset in your bracket each year. Every tournament is different in terms of relative team quality at each seed line, and even though at least one 12-over-5 upset is still expected to happen this year based on win probabilities, picking the wrong one can cost your bracket’s prospects dearly.
7) No. 1 North Carolina is the public’s most overvalued team this year. UNC is being picked to make the Final Four at more than 43% rate, despite their chances of making it being significantly lower. There’s some sneaky-strong, undervalued competition in the West Region this year, including Arizona and Michigan St., No. 5 St. Mary’s, and others. It’s a interesting case where a portion of the public is not only undervaluing Arizona, but also underestimating the cumulative probability of UNC falling to a significantly lower-seeded opponent in this region.
8) Besides UNC, No. 3 Baylor is another team where the public’s expectations are far outpacing data-driven reality. Almost 70% of bracket pickers have Baylor in their Sweet 16, but according to our projections, Baylor doesn’t even have a 50/50 chance to get there, largely thanks to the expected strength of the No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 New Mexico winner, which Baylor would face in the Second Round.
9) If you’re looking for a First Round upset pick that’s close to a 50/50 proposition but also a public fade, No. 11 Oregon is only a 1.5-point underdog to No. 6 South Carolina in the betting market. Another fun one could be No. 9 Northwestern over No. 8 Florida Atlantic, after Florida Atlantic’s cinderella run to the Final Four last year. FAU is only favored by a couple points in the betting market, and the majority of the public is picking them to win.
10) The East Region is absolutely loaded in 2024, the proverbial “region of death.” Against more typical competition, Connecticut’s odds to win this tournament would have been even higher, but No. 2 Iowa State, No. 3 Illinois, and No. 4 Auburn are an absolute wrecking crew of 2-3-4 seeds, and all of them are being at least slightly undervalued by the public to reach the title game or win it all. How that region plays out is likely to be a big factor in determining winning entries in bracket pools this year.
Translating Data Into The Best Bracket
These are just a few examples of data-driven insights we’ve identified that will help you maximize your edge in a 2024 NCAA bracket contest. There are plenty more that we share with our subscribers at PoolGenius.
The challenge is translating all these insights into a 2024 bracket that optimally balances risk and reward based on your pool’s size, scoring system, and payout structure. For example, add upset bonuses or a non-traditional scoring system into the mix, and the best pick strategy for your bracket will change.
It’s an impossible task for any human, because of the scope of data and math required. Not including the play-in games, you need to make 67 unique pick decisions in your 2024 bracket.
There’s one combination of picks that gives you the best chance to win, and millions of ways to veer off course.
Get Expert 2024 Bracket Picks Now
The good news is that the technology at PoolGenius has you covered.
The algorithms we’ve developed have already simulated hypothetical 2024 bracket pools and tested the performance of millions of combinations of picks.
We’ve done all the heavy lifting in terms of crunching the numbers. You just click a button to get customized, ready-to-play brackets for your pool. (We actually provide five optimized brackets, in case you want to play multiple entries.)
Brackets are ready now, along with the most comprehensive suite of 2024 NCAA tournament projections, data, and matchup analysis tools.
NCAA Bracket Picks from PoolGenius »
(We also have tools for NCAA survivor pools and Calcutta auctions.)