MLB DFS, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props Picks: Thursday (3/28)

MLB’s Opening Day main slate differs at DraftKings and FanDuel, with nine games starting at 3:05 p.m. ET at the latter and eight at 4:10 p.m. ET at the former. Thankfully, all MLB games on Opening Day have pick ’em options at Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks, creating a vast pool to choose from.

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Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Pablo Lopez (MIN) at KC
Pablo Lopez had an excellent first season for the Twins in 2023 despite stronger ERA estimators than his 3.66 ERA. Lopez had the best xERA (3.00), the fifth-best xFIP (3.28) and the fifth-best SIERA (3.37) among qualified pitchers last season. Furthermore, Minnesota's ace had the fifth-highest strikeout rate (29.2 K%).

Lopez also shined on the road. In 95.2 innings on the road in 2023, he had a 3.10 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, 5.9 BB% and 28.3 K%. Lopez shouldn't face a substantial pitch count limit after reaching 73 in his final spring training start.

In addition, the betting info is DFS-friendly. The Twins are -125 favorites, and the game's total is 8.0 runs in a battle of aces.

Jesus Luzardo (MIA) vs. PIT
Jesus Luzardo was lights out at home last season. In 108.1 innings in Miami in 2023, the lefty had a 2.99 ERA, 3.74 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 8.0 BB% and 29.2 K%. Luzardo's strikeout ability elevates his floor and ceiling.

He has an adequate matchup, too. Pittsburgh's projected starting lineup has seven players with over a 110 wRC+ against lefties since 2021. However, five have had at least a 22.2 K%, and three have had at least a 28.1 K%.

Luzardo has ramped his pitch count up in every start in spring training, tossing 67 in his most recent turn. Thus, his pitch count isn't concerning and shouldn't preclude him from providing DFS value, especially at his bargain salary on DK. The betting info also supports clicking him into lineups. The Marlins are -130, and the game's total is 7.5 runs.

Cole Ragans (KC) vs. MIN
Cole Ragans morphed into an ace after the Royals traded for him last season. In 12 starts spanning 71.2 innings for Kansas City, the young lefty had a 2.64 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.4 BB%, 31.1 K%, 29.1 CSW%, 101 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 104 Pitching+. He checked all of the boxes for a burgeoning front-of-the-rotation pitcher.

Moreover, Ragans is ready to work deep into games after logging 93 pitches in his final spring training start. The Twins have firepower in their lineup, but Ragans is underpriced relative to his ability, making him a tantalizing GPP choice at both DFS outlets.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

• Home (Great American Ball Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/CIN -155

Josiah Gray was exceptionally lucky last season, tallying a 3.91 ERA compared to a 5.03 xERA, 5.12 xFIP and 5.08 SIERA. He has his work cut out on Opening Day in one of MLB's most hitter-friendly venues, and the Reds should knock him around.

• Home (Dodger Stadium)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/LAD -230

The Dodgers have a supremely talented and deep lineup. They're capable of crushing even MLB's best starting pitchers, and Miles Mikolas isn't close to that tier. Instead, he had a 4.78 ERA, 5.44 xERA, 4.76 xFIP and 4.81 SIERA. Moreover, the veteran righty's pitch-to-contact approach (15.9 K% in 2023) won't do him favors against LA's potent lineup.

Core Studs

• Since 2021, Freddie Freeman has had a .418 OBP, .209 ISO and 157 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand was superb in same-handed matchups at home last season. In 92 plate appearances against righties in Cincinnati, Encarnacion-Strand drilled seven dongs with a .348 OBP, .264 ISO and 141 wRC+. He also tore the cover off the ball in spring training.

Value Plays/Punts

• In 280 plate appearances against righties in Great American Ball Park since 2022, Jake Fraley has mashed 14 taters with a .346 OBP, .227 ISO and 123 wRC+. He's also a capable base stealer, swiping 21 in 111 games last season.
• Jesus Sanchez has hit 19 homers with a .348 OBP, .257 ISO and 133 wRC+ in 422 plate appearances against righties at home since reaching the majors in 2020.
• In 285 plate appearances against righties last season, Will Benson hit 11 homers with a .389 OBP, .252 ISO and 147 wRC+. He also stole 19 bases in 108 games.
• Javier Baez has hit 17 homers with a .335 OBP, .196 ISO and 121 wRC+ in 427 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.

Thursday's Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Frankie Montas: 5.0 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog Fantasy)/Less (PrizePicks)

Frankie Montas appeared in a big-league game only once last season. He navigated the spring healthy, but the Reds might not extend him too deep in games. To that point, Jon Anderson projects him for only 80 pitches today.

The context is also lousy for Montas's strikeout potential. First, Washington's projected lineup doesn't strike out often against righties. Second, Great American Ball Park is a hitter-friendly venue. So, Montas could get knocked around and chased quickly. As a result, FantasyPros projects him for just 4.67 strikeouts today.

Framber Valdez: 29.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)

Framber Valdez: 15.5 Pitching Outs - More (PrizePicks)

Framber Valdez loves home cooking. In 251.0 innings at home since 2021, he's had a 3.44 ERA, 3.01 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 8.0 BB% and 26.2 K%. Unsurprisingly, the workhorse hurler has piled up innings at home, too. Since 2022, he's recorded over 15.5 outs in 24 of 30 starts at home. Thus, the lefty is projected for 6.25 innings.

Freddie Freeman: 8.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)

Freddie Freeman: 7.5 Fantasy Score - More (PrizePicks)

In addition to Freeman's exploits against righties since 2021 that were highlighted in the core studs section, he has a mouthwatering matchup. Mikolas yielded a .285 batting average, .313 OBP, .488 slugging and .338 wOBA to 408 left-handed batters in 2023.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.