Tonight’s eight-game MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has an unusual start time of 6:50 p.m. ET. In addition to the suggested pitchers, stacks, studs and values/punts, there are eye-catching pick ’em selections at Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks.
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Friday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
George Kirby (SEA) vs. BOS
George Kirby is a fantastic hurler in his stomping grounds. According to FanGraphs, in 164.2 innings at home in his career, he's had a 2.95 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 3.0 BB% and 26.4 K%.
The Red Sox are a much less imposing offense on the road than at home. Furthermore, their projected starters have had exploitable strikeout rates against righties since 2021 or debuting in the majors. The betting info is also favorable. According to BettingPros, the Mariners are -160, and the game's total is 7.5 runs. Kirby has a massive ceiling tonight.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs. COL
Merrill Kelly is the best pick in cash games against Colorado's hapless lineup. The Rockies' projected lineup has a decided lack of production against righties, and they're punchless on the road.
Conversely, Kelly loves home cooking. In 281.1 innings at home since 2021, Kelly has had a 3.10 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, 7.5 BB% and 24.6 K%. Furthermore, in 93.2 innings in Arizona last season, he had a 2.59 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 9.9 BB% and 29.0 K%.
Kelly should dominate the Rockies, and Arizona's offense should provide him with run support. As a result, the Diamondbacks are -225. Again, Kelly is the best pick in cash games and a superb choice in GPPs.
A.J. Puk (MIA) vs. PIT
A.J. Puk was stretched out in spring training to start. He hasn't pitched regularly as a starter since starting 13 games for Oakland's Double-A affiliate in 2017. Nevertheless, the lefty made the transition look seamless in the spring.
In four starts spanning 13.2 innings, Puk had a 1.32 ERA, 2.38 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 7.1 BB%, 41.1 K% and 30.0 SwStr%. Equally important, Puk was stretched to 82 pitches in a rock-solid final tuneup.
Puk is an exciting bargain option in a favorable matchup, and the betting info supports using him. The Marlins are -130, and the game's total is a non-threatening 8.0 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Astros have a cupcake to feast on tonight. Carlos Rodon had a 6.85 ERA, 5.34 xERA, 5.30 xFIP and 4.87 SIERA in 14 starts, totaling only 64.1 innings in 2023. He didn't assuage concerns about his struggles last season during the spring. In five spring training starts spanning 19.1 innings, he had a 4.19 ERA, 5.40 xFIP, 20.5 K% and a pitiful 8.2 SwStr%. Houston has many lefty-killers who should tee off on him.
- Home (Chase Field)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/ARI -225
The Diamondbacks beat the Rockies into submission last night, hanging 16 runs on them. They should fire up the machine again tonight against a lousy hurler. In 19 starts spanning 99.2 innings last season, Cal Quantrill had a 5.24 ERA, 5.85 xERA, 5.43 xFIP and 5.50 SIERA. The righty also had a career-low 13.1 K% and 22.6 CSW%.
Core Studs
- Jose Altuve is one of Houston's lefty-killers and sits atop their lineup. In 482 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he's had a .374 OBP, .227 ISO and 151 wRC+.
- Corbin Carroll hit 10 homers with a .364 OBP, .271 ISO and 144 wRC+ in 239 plate appearances against righties at home last season.
Value Plays/Punts
- In 343 plate appearances against lefties in his career, Chas McCormick has had a .382 OBP, .257 ISO and 163 wRC+.
- Since 2021, Jake Burger has hit 14 homers with a .333 OBP, .304 ISO and 143 wRC+ in 201 plate appearances against lefties.
- Quantrill yielded a .379 OBP, .472 SLG and .369 wOBA to 211 lefties last season. Joc Pederson has had a .335 OBP, .220 ISO and 120 wRC+ against righties since 2021 and can take advantage of the cushy matchup.
- In 466 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Chris Taylor has hit 18 homers with a .328 OBP, .213 ISO and 111 wRC+.
Friday's Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props
Jake Burger: 1.5 Hits + Run+ RBIs - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)/More (PrizePicks)
In addition to Burger's exploits against lefties since 2021, highlighted in the values/punts section, he has a tasty matchup. Last season, Martin Perez allowed 17 homers, a .282 batting average, a .346 OBP, a .460 SLG and a .346 wOBA to 473 right-handed batters. The veteran lefty also had a 4.45 ERA, 4.90 xERA, 4.96 xFIP, 5.08 SIERA, and a 1.40 WHIP. So, Burger should have run-production opportunities.
Carlos Rodon: 3.0 Earned Runs - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)
Carlos Rodon + Cristian Javier: Over 0.5 1st Inning Runs Allowed - Higher (PrizePicks)
Houston was a featured stack because they have eight projected starters with at least a 108 wRC+ against lefties since 2021. Moreover, six have had at least a 133 wRC+. It starts at the top with Altuve (149 wRC+), Yordan Alvarez (155 wRC+) and Kyle Tucker (134 wRC+). Furthermore, it doesn't get much easier for Rodon after that, but the elite hitting at the top of the order enhances the odds of the Astros scratching a run across in the first inning.
Still, the over for 0.5 runs allowed in the first inning could already be a winner at PrizePicks after the Yankees take their hacks. Cristian Javier had a career-worst season in 2023, coughing up a 4.56 ERA, 4.42 xERA, 5.16 xFIP and 4.76 SIERA. The Bronx Bombers have firepower at the top of their lineup. Thus, Javier can get touched up early, even if the primary motivation for this pick is Rodon's inclusion.
Corbin Carroll: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher/More
Carroll is a carryover from the core studs section in a tantalizing matchup. The FantasyPros projections love the toolsy outfielder tonight. Arizona's leadoff hitter is projected for 1.25 hits, 0.32 doubles, 0.16 triples and 0.16 homers. Carroll has the thump to go over 1.5 total bases in a single plate appearance with an extra-base hit. Yet, he also has the elite hitting ability to rack up a pair of singles for the over. Either path is viable.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
