MLB DFS & Player Props Picks: Sunday (3/31)

This is going to be a challenging slate to navigate. Playing DFS in the opening week is difficult enough, but we’re already creeping into the backends of these rotations. While that gives us plenty of hitter options, the pitching selections are thin. With that in mind, let’s start there!

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Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Bailey Ober (MIN) at KC
Some of the most intelligent people in our industry have Ober pegged as a breakout this year, and it’s easy to understand why. The Twins righty allowed three runs or fewer in all but four starts last season, registering a 3.37 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over the last two years. That sort of form makes him hard to avoid against KC, with the Royals ranked 26th in wOBA and 28th in OBP last year.

Michael King (SD) vs. SF
New York didn’t want to part ways with King, but that was necessary when acquiring a stud like Juan Soto. The Padres might’ve landed an ace, though, with King collecting a 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last two years. An ugly relief appearance in Korea might deter some DFS managers, but that would be silly in a home start against a 21st-ranked Giants offense.

Tyler Wells (BAL) vs. LAA
Baltimore has become one of the best places to pitch, with Camden Yards ranked as one of the most pitcher-friendly environments since moving the walls back. That was beneficial for Wells, who posted a 3.39 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home last year. Those are unbelievable averages from such an affordable player, especially since he faces an Angels lineup that parted ways with Shohei Ohtani.

Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs. COL
This one scares me because Pfaadt was one of the worst pitchers in the opening months of last year. In any case, he turned it around and returned to the stud we saw in the minors. From August on, Pfaadt had a 4.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 9.8 K.9 rate. We love that since he had a 3.58 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 34 percent K rate throughout the minors, and Colorado isn’t far from that. The Rockies have ranked last in nearly every offensive metric on the road in three straight years!

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Atlanta Braves (vs. Ranger Suarez)

• Road (Citizens Bank Ballpark)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/ATL -140

The Braves will be in this section all season. They ranked atop nearly every offensive category last season and sport the same lineup we saw in that unbelievable campaign. They were also even better against lefties, which is scary for Ranger Suarez. The Phillies southpaw accrued a 4.18 ERA and 1.42 WHIP last year. All of that has Atlanta as one of the highest projected lineups in a hitter’s haven like Citizens Bank Park, projected to score 5.5 runs.

Texas Rangers (vs. Jordan Wicks)

• Home (Globe Life Field)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/TEX -140

While this guy’s name is close to John Wick, we expect him to be on the other end of the barrel here. Texas was a Top 5 offense in runs scored, OBP, and OPS last season, posting even better numbers at home. That’s terrible news for Wicks, posting a 4.62 xFIP last season. That’s why the Rangers are one of the highest-projected offenses on this slate.

Core Studs

• Garcia has developed into one of the best players in fantasy, collecting 97 homers and 50 steals over the last three years. That’s why he was in the heart of the top offense in the AL from last year, and we can’t fade him against a lefty like Wicks. Garcia had a .362 OBP and .862 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor last season.
• Not much needs to be said about Acuna. This guy could hit 50 homers and steal 100 bases, and it really wouldn’t be that shocking. That’s a bit outlandish, but he was the top-scoring player in fantasy last year by a significant margin. That makes him an easy play against a lefty like Suarez, flirting with a 1.000 OPS against southpaws last year.
• Not enough people talk about how ridiculous Yordan has been throughout his career. His worst year was a .877 OPS, falling just shy of a 1.000 OPS throughout his five-year career. That’s genuinely tremendous, and he’s always been better against right-handers. Alvarez amassed a 1.044 OPS against right-handers last year!
• Ramirez has been a Top 5 player in fantasy almost every year since I started writing, and he kicked off the year with a dinger on Friday. His power-speed combo isn’t matched by many players in the league, and we love that he faces Paul Blackburn. The Oakland arm had a nightmarish 1.54 WHIP last season and a FIP north of 5.00.

Value Plays/Punts

• Jung is one of the sneakiest bats in this Texas stack, batting behind Garcia and Seager. That’s the spot you want to be in, with Jung generating a .782 OPS in a breakout campaign last year. His splits are what really make us excited. He sports a .995 OPS against lefties while scoring 18.4 FD points in his debut on Friday!
• Burger has a goofy name, but this guy is no joke on the field. What’s made him so dangerous are his sensational splits against southpaws. The Marlins third baseman has a .598 SLG and .944 OPS against them over the last three years. That’s hard to overlook against Bailey Falter, faltering his way to a 5.36 ERA and 1.41 WHIP last year.
• McNeil isn’t the most exciting option in fantasy, but there are not many better bets for a guy getting on base multiple times. The Mets second baseman has a .298 AVG, .360 OBP, and .798 OPS throughout his career. That’s difficult to find from such a cheap player, especially since McNeil has the platoon advantage against Colin Rea‘s 4.74 career ERA.
• We had Hayes in this section yesterday, and we’re going right back to the well for all the same reasons. This youngster fell just shy of a .950 OPS over the final two months of last year and posted similar numbers in spring training. That means a breakout campaign could be on the horizon, asking him an enticing option against Trevor Rogers. Not only did Hayes have a .847 OPS against lefties last year, but Rogers registered a 5.26 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last two years.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Ronald Acuna: 0.5 Runs – Higher

Acuna will bat atop the best lineup in baseball in what’s a favorable matchup. They’re projected to score five runs, and we expect Acuna to be one of them.

Jake Burger: 0.5 RBI – Higher

Burger should hit in the heart of Miami’s lineup, making him a good bet for an RBI when evaluating his splits.

Jake Irvin: 5.5 Strikeouts – Under

Pitching in Great American Ballpark is horrifying for any pitcher, with Cincy projected to be one of the highest-scoring lineups on this slate. That makes this strikeout line hard to understand, with Irvin recording five or fewer strikeouts in 16 of 24 starts last year.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.