This is my first MLB DFS article of the season! I love playing MLB DFS because we have more statistics than any other sport. With that said, the opening week can be challenging because we really only go off of last year’s statistics. That’s mostly what we’ll do here, so let’s zone in on these games starting at 4ET.
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Tanner Bibee (CLE) at OAK
Oakland has the worst offense in baseball, and we will use pitchers against them every day. They were either 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and XWOBA last season. They might be even worse this year, which is scary against a breakout pitcher like Bibee. The Guardians righty registered a 2.98 ERA and 1.18 WHIP last year and had even better numbers in the minors!
This is my first MLB DFS article of the season! I love playing MLB DFS because we have more statistics than any other sport. With that said, the opening week can be challenging because we really only go off of last year’s statistics. That’s mostly what we’ll do here, so let’s zone in on these games starting at 4ET.
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Tanner Bibee (CLE) at OAK
Oakland has the worst offense in baseball, and we will use pitchers against them every day. They were either 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and XWOBA last season. They might be even worse this year, which is scary against a breakout pitcher like Bibee. The Guardians righty registered a 2.98 ERA and 1.18 WHIP last year and had even better numbers in the minors!
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) vs. LAA
G-Rod got off to a rough start in his debut month last season, but he hit his stride after a move to the minors. The top pitching prospect from last season had a 2.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9 rate over his final 11 starts last year. That’s on par with the amazing averages he posted in the minors, and we expect him to go off every time he toes the rubber in this pitcher-friendly ballpark. Not to mention, LA is projected to be one of the worst lineups without Shohei Ohtani, which is why G-Rod is a -180 favorite in this game.
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs. WAS
This is a risky option, but not many people have the upside that Greene does. The right-hander scored over 43 FanDuel points six times last season, posting an impressive 12.2 K/9 rate. That ability to strike batters out is what makes him enticing for DFS, especially against a team like Washington. The Nats were 21st in WOBA and 22nd in runs scored but were even worse in the second half.
Joe Ryan (MIN) at KC
Ryan was one of the best starters in the first half of last season, but some homers crushed his averages in the second half. We’re willing to overlook that because Ryan had a 2.98 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through the opening two months of last year. That fantastic form should be easy to duplicate against a team like Kansas City, with the Royals ranked 26th in wOBA and 28th in OBP. That was on full display when Ryan scored 43 FD points in both of their matchups.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Cincy will be a popular stack all season, possessing all of these talented young hitters in one of the best parks in baseball. That would make them intriguing against anyone, but Corbin has been one of the worst starters over the last five years. In fact, Corbin has compiled a 5.62 ERA and 1.55 WHIP since 2020. That’s why the Reds are projected to score 5.5 runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Lance Lynn)
The Dodgers are always a dangerous stack, but we definitely want to use them against Lynn. The veteran surrendered the most home runs in baseball last season, posting a 5.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in the worst year of his career. Lynn may be washed as a pitcher, and betting on a resurgence against a lineup with three MVP candidates would be dangerous.
Core Studs
- Freeman had a .500 OBP in his first two games in Korea and followed it up with a dinger on Thursday. That’s what we expect from this slugger, sporting a .410 OBP and .951 OPS since joining LA three years ago. He also has superb splits and should slice through an aging veteran like Lynn.
- Seager is one of the best hitters in baseball, and we want to have exposure to him against Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs righty has a 4.43 ERA over the last three years and has one of the worst K rates in baseball. That’s terrifying against a contact machine like Seager, totaling a .390 OBP, .623 SLG, and 1.013 OPS last year. He also had a 1.075 OPS against right-handers as well.
- Walker has developed into one of the best power hitters in the game, and he’s one of the best bets to go yard in this matchup. Let’s start there because he faces Austin Gomber‘s 5.53 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last two years. This also gives Walker the platoon advantage from the right side, as he amassed a .922 OPS against lefties last year.
- Many people have Encarnacion-Strand as a breakout this year, hitting cleanup for this dangerous Reds lineup. We already talked about how pitiful Patrick Corbin has been over the last four years, and CES should take advantage of that from the right side. In his final season in Triple-A, Encarnacion-Strand had a .405 OBP, .637 SLG and 1.042 OPS.
Value Plays/Punts
- Muncy is always risky because he’s just as likely to homer as he is to strike out four times. We might get both of those occurrences here, but that home run potential makes Muncy an elite GPP option. The slugger faces a pitcher who surrendered the most dingers last year while providing a .878 OPS against righties since the start of last season.
- India wasn’t even projected to start for the Reds this year, but some injuries have forced him into an everyday role as the leadoff hitter. If we want to stack Cincy, we have to use their leadoff hitter. It’s hard to understand why India fell out of favor for the Reds anyway, generating a .350 OBP and .769 OPS throughout his career.
- Hayes has always been a glove-first player, but the bat is starting to come around. He had a .933 OPS over the final 45 games of last year and carried that form into spring training. That means we might see a breakout in the making, which is awesome since he had a .847 OPS against lefties last year. This is not a scary southpaw either, with Ryan Weathers posting a 5.88 career ERA and 1.53 WHIP.
- Tampa is always a tempting stack because they have these platoon guys that always go off. Ramirez is one of them, accumulating a .966 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor last season. That always has him in the heart of their lineup against lefties, and it’s not like we’re worried about Yusei Kikuchi‘s 4.71 career ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
Saturday’s Top Underdog Player Props
Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 0.5 RBI – Higher (Underdog Fantasy)
We expect CES to bat cleanup for Cincy and have plenty of RBI opportunities against Corbin.
Michael Soroka: 5.0 Strikeouts – Lower (Underdog Fantasy)
Soroka has been sidelined for most of the last four years, making just 10 starts in that span. That will likely limit his pitch count in his debut, with Soroka clearing five strikeouts in just two of those 10 starts in that four-year span.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.