Early Monday morning, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that WR Mike Evans, the top free agent WR about to hit the open market in a couple of weeks, had re-signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a two-year deal worth $52 million ($35 million guaranteed). As we’ll do through NFL free agency, we look at the deal and what it means for the fantasy football landscape and Evans’s value in 2024 and beyond. Our own Pat Fitzmaurice breaks it all down below.

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Mike Evans Re-Signs with Buccaneers

Mike Evans has agreed to a two-year deal with the Buccaneers worth $52 million, including $35 million in guaranteed money, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Evans, who turns 31 in August, has played 10 NFL seasons, all of them with the Bucs.

After scoring only six touchdowns in 2022, Evans had 13 TD catches in 2023, tying Tyreek Hill for the league lead. The seventh overall pick of the 2014 NFL Draft, Evans has topped 1,000 yards in each of his 10 seasons in Tampa. With a 1,000-yard season in 2024, Evans would tie Jerry Rice’s record for most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons by a receiver. Rice went over 1,000 yards in 11 straight seasons from 1986 to 1996.

Evans currently sits 10th among wide receivers and 27th overall on the all-time touchdown list with 95, tied with Raiders WR Davante Adams.

There wasn’t a great deal of enthusiasm for Evans during the 2023 fantasy draft season. His average draft position, according to FantasyPros consensus ADP data, was WR29, No. 71 overall. It’s a safe bet that Evans won’t be available in the sixth round of 12-team drafts again after his 79-1,255-13 receiving performance last season. Evans’ Expert Consensus Ranking for 2024 is currently WR15, No. 28 overall.

BREAKING: WR Mike Evans has agreed to a new two-year, $52 million deal with the #Buccaneers, according to @AdamSchefter pic.twitter.com/KnHhtWsXrY

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) March 4, 2024

The Evans pessimism a year ago was more about the Tampa Bay QB situation than Evans himself. Baker Mayfield had averaged a modest 226.2 passing yards and 1.4 touchdown passes per game over his first five NFL seasons and was widely regarded as one of the league’s lesser starting quarterbacks entering the 2024 season. But Mayfield established new career highs with 4,044 passing yards and 28 TD passes in 2023.

Evans commanded a 24.7% target share and 40.7% air yards share last year. His 1,906 air yards were a league-high, and his average depth of target was a robust 14.0 yards.

There’s little doubt Evans will maintain hefty target and air yard shares in 2024. He remains the Buccaneers’ primary intermediate and deep threat in the passing game. The presence of accomplished slot receiver Chris Godwin, who’s under contract with the Buccaneers for one more season, helps ensure that Evans doesn’t see endless double-teaming from defenses.

The Evans signing, coupled with the Bengals’ franchise-tagging of Tee Higgins, has made this year’s crop of free-agent receivers far less appealing. Michael Pittman, Marquise Brown and Calvin Ridley are the most appealing WRs due to hit free agency — and there’s a good chance the Colts will use the franchise tag on Pittman. Fortunately for receiver-needy teams, this year’s rookie WR class is regarded as one of the best in years.

– Pat Fitzmaurice

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