This is a guest post from PoolGenius, which has expert brackets ready now.
Every March, the public gets a bit too optimistic about some of the higher-seeded teams in the tournament.
As you scramble to get your 2024 NCAA picks in, here are three popular picks you should think twice about auto-advancing in your bracket.
(If you’re really in a fix, we’ve got you covered with ready-to-play brackets customized for your pool.)
No. 4 Alabama
Alabama got a No. 4 seed based on their overall body of work this season, and they had a chance to win the SEC regular season with just a few games remaining.
But the Crimson Tide imploded on defense down the stretch, and their defensive numbers are pretty bad. They can score on anyone, but have difficulty getting stops, and that is often a bad trait to have as a better seed in the NCAA tournament.
Alabama starts off the 2024 tournament against a peaking-late Charleston team, and then would face the winner of No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon, another very good mid-major.
As a result, our objective projections only give Alabama a 43% chance of reaching the Sweet 16, yet over half (55%) of all brackets nationwide are picking them to make it there.
No. 3 Baylor
This year’s version of the 2021 NCAA champion catches a tougher-than-people-think draw to the Sweet 16.
Baylor is another team that is explosive on offense, but rather middling on defense for an at-large team. And on offense, their weakness is turnover rate, where they are below average.
Baylor is a large favorite (but not a lock) against No. 14 Colgate, a team that forces some of the longest possessions in Division 1. If the underdog can control clock, it could get interesting.
However, by far the biggest threat lurks in the Second Round, where either No. 11 New Mexico or No. 6 Clemson would present danger. That’s particularly true of New Mexico Lobos, who are actually favored in that First Round game.
New Mexico rates as our 24th-best team in the 2024 bracket, and was woefully underseeded by the Selection Committee after winning the Mountain West Tournament. They excel at forcing turnovers.
We have the odds of Baylor making the Sweet 16 at close to a coin flip (49%), while the public is picking it 67% of the time.
No. 1 North Carolina
We don’t like to make a habit of highlighting No. 1 seeds in this column, but we did it successfully last year, and this situation is similar. So here goes.
In 2023 we highlighted No. 8 Arkansas team as a problem for No. 1 Kansas. Arkansas had performed poorly in close games (a known luck factor), but ranked in the Top 20 of our predictive rankings.
No. 9 Michigan State fits that description this year. The Spartans went 2-8 in games decided by six points or fewer, a big reason why they are a No. 9 seed. But they rank in our tournament Top 20.
Michigan State’s First Round opponent, Mississippi State, is also above average for a team in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game. So UNC will likely face a challenge in the Second Round.
North Carolina is not at the same level of the other three No. 1 seeds in 2024, and rates below an average No. 1 seed in recent years. Several other teams could have easily gotten the Selection Committee’s nod for the final No. 1 slot.
So this is a case where perception may not match reality. We still have North Carolina with a 59% chance of making the Sweet 16, and thus technically expect them to make it.
But those odds are well below the public’s rate to have UNC in the Sweet 16, which are a whopping 85%. That 26% difference between our odds to advance, and the public’s rate, is the largest for any of the top seeds this year.
Bonus Note
We did not list No. 4 Kansas above, but they will now be without leading scorer Kevin McCullar in the tournament.
Partly as a result, Kansas is actually our least likely top 4 seed to advance to the Sweet 16, with odds of only 35% to do so.
Many people are aware of Kansas’s injury woes, though. Overall, the public is only giving them a 44% chance to make it.
So Kansas is absolutely a team to be careful about, but you also won’t differentiate yourself from the majority of your bracket pool opponents by having them lose in the Second Round.
The Takeaways
Should you pick Alabama, Baylor, and North Carolina all to lose before the Sweet 16? Almost certainly not, unless your pool awards huge bonuses for upsets. (Then you might consider it.)
However, crafting a bracket that intelligently and selectively takes some stands against overvalued teams in 2024 is a key strategy for winning more NCAA bracket pools.
The other side of the coin—knowing the teams that are being underrated by the public, and can make for great picks to make deep runs in your bracket—is just as important.
We’ve got all the data, and we used it to generate optimized brackets for all flavors of pool sizes, scoring systems, and payout structures.
The best bracket for your pool is ready right now.
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