The calendar steadily approaching April indicates the 2024 NFL Draft and rookie hype season has officially reached all-new heights, especially for those invested in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.

• 2024 NFL Mock Drafts
• Expert Consensus 2024 NFL Mock Draft
• 2024 NFL Draft Guide
• 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles

The first-year talent that has entered the league the past few seasons warrants excitement because guys are hitting the ground running for fantasy football. The list is impressive: C.J. Stroud, Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, Puka Nacua, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Christian Watson, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

But there’s still some ambiguity with every prospect entering the league that should be considered when generating their fantasy value. And how the NFL thinks/views certain prospects based on their projected draft capital — and real draft capital post-draft — should be factored in.

Leveraging projected draft capital provided by Grinding The Mocks/NFL Mock Draft Database and using the historical rookie track record data from the late great Mike Tagliere to devise a value strategy is the best way to approach the 2024 rookie class. It will prepare you for dynasty rookie drafts and season-long leagues after each newcomer finds their NFL landing spot. It will also provide an edge against early pre-draft best ball average draft position (ADP) on Underdog Fantasy, Drafters and the FFPC.

Again, shout out to Tags for the 2021 version of this article that I will be referring to ad nauseam. He provided the backbone for the first version of this article, and each subsequent article that followed.

How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football (Pre-Draft 2024)

Running Backs

The data suggests a strong correlation between draft capital and running back production in fantasy football. This correlation isn’t surprising because draft capital is a better indicator of opportunity versus talent/skill. The running back position in fantasy football is heavily dependent on volume.

NFL teams are wising up to drafting a running back at the back end of round one or in the middle of Day 2, intending to run them into the ground through the extent of their rookie contract.

However, with the 2024 RB class in particular, draft capital is tougher to come by. The class is not as strong as in recent years, which was extremely evident by how heavily-coveted veteran RBs were during the 2024 free agency period.

Rookie Running Backs Since 2013

First-round rookie running backs, on average, see 239 touches per season — a number that ranked 22nd at the position last season and 20th the year before (2022).

However, the benchmark around 20 is slightly inflated due to the extra game, so I’d estimate the average is closer to the top 15 based on the previous 16-game season sample size (239 touches ranked 14th in 2021).

Najee Harris — 381 touches in 2021, tops in the NFL — is the best-case scenario for a first-round rookie volume-wise but still showcases the impact a first-year runner can make despite zero professional experience.

Last year we had two RBs selected in the first round — they delivered despite lofty expectations. Both finished as top-12 fantasy RBs averaging the exact touch output we should have expected.

But with no round-one RBs projected to be drafted in the 2024 RB draft class, 2022 looks closer to what we could see in 2024. We had three RBs finish with over 225 touches between Kenneth Walker, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier. The highest-drafted RB that season (Breece Hall) was on pace for 242 touches before his injury.

When the 2024 RB class is discussed, it’s often compared to the 2014 class — the last time we saw zero RBs drafted inside the top 50 overall selections. The 2014 RB class didn’t see an RB drafted until 54th overall (Bishop Sankey). Jeremy Hill was the second RB selected (55th overall) and touched the ball 249 times. Hill was the fantasy RB10. He also ran a 4.66 40-yard dash. Andre Williams was drafted in the fourth round. He finished with 235 touches and an RB23 fantasy finish.

Undrafted RB Braeden Oliver finished third with 196 touches (RB28). Third-rounder Tre Mason was fourth with 195 touches (RB27), followed by sixth-rounder Alfred Blue (183, RB44), third-rounder Terrance West (182, RB32), Sankey (170, RB45), undrafted Isaiah Crowell (157, RB31) and third-rounder Jerick McKinnon (140, RB47). Damien Williams also went undrafted in this class.

The last time we saw an RB class as bad as the 2024 class, two guys still hit over 200 touches. They also both just happened to be over 230 pounds. In fact, the majority of the best producers from a lackluster RB class offered weight above the 77th percentile (223 pounds). Size is a skill. And guys that stood with size that couldn’t be taught, got volume as rookies back in 2014. It’s interesting because the 2024 class has a few bigger backs that teams might be interested in given the landscape of lighter boxes in the NFL. If there truly is no RB that stands out from an on-field perspective, then I understand chasing an intangible such as size.

There is no guarantee we even get one RB drafted in round two this season, let alone round one. The consensus has FSU’s Trey Benson (RB34 ADP) to be selected inside the top 60 picks. He’s followed by Jonathon Brooks (RB37) and Blake Corum (RB39) as the other highest-drafted RBs at the round two/round three turn.

We could easily go two full rounds with zero RBs selected in this year’s draft.

Six RBs are projected to go here in total between Braelon Allen (RB48), Jaylen Wright (RB43) and MarShawn Lloyd (RB47); adding to the previous three already named.

Blake Corum is +300 to be the 1st RB drafted on DraftKings

He is +1500 to the 1st RB drafted on FanDuel…

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) March 20, 2024

Simply put, it’s a cluster of third-round RBs, where draft capital won’t be as much of a differentiating factor among the top rushers. The team landing spot will matter much more. Interestingly enough, all of these RBs are going slightly ahead of where last year’s middle-round guys went between De’Von Achane (RB49) and Tyjae Spears (RB50).

And all the RBs after the RB50 cutoff last season did not help fantasy teams in 2023. I’d argue none increased their dynasty value aside from maybe Roschon Johnson (he was RB51). Note that these guys were all on the Day 2/Day 3 cusp. Not a place you want to be as a rookie RB.

Considering the average rookie finish for a third-round RB is RB58, the top six rookies are being overvalued by the market based on expected third-round draft capital. And the top three (possible round-two picks but not locks) are being drafted at the average finish spot of a round-two RB.

This round three crop of RBs has extremely shaky floors. The round two draft capital gives them slightly more runway to be a team’s answer.

But from a total ceiling perspective, the nearly identical RB1% suggests the upside outcome is very similar between round two and round three running backs.

However, the major overall drop-off in running back production from round two to round three cannot be ignored. Most analysts and draft pundits cluster “Day 2 running backs” together because the draft is set up in that fashion but the facts advocate we should view them separately.

The volume and fantasy finish margin from round two to round three running backs is more significant than round three to round four running backs.

Tank Bigsby is the example from last season of a round-three running back who completely failed to fire.

Of the 34 running backs who’ve been drafted in the third round over the last 11 years, just five of them have finished as a top-24 running back in their rookie season, while 23 of them finished outside of the top-36 running backs.

Rookie running backs like Bucky Irving (RB54), Ray Davis (RB57) Audric Estime (RB59), Will Shipley (RB62), Dylan Laube (RB67), Frank Gore Jr. (RB67) and Isaiah Davis (RB73) face uphill battles to meet their respective ADPs with expected draft positions (EDP) outside the top three rounds.

Rounds 4-7 are where things become a crapshoot but there is some semblance to viewing the running backs selected in the first round of Day 3 in a separate tier from rounds five or later.

And it’s because round-four running backs look much more like round-three running backs from a post-draft production standpoint than their round five or later counterparts.

There’s a slightly higher hit rate in the fourth round than in rounds 5-7. Players like Tony Pollard, Dameon Pierce, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, Roschon Johnson and Michael Carter most recently enjoyed fantasy-relevant weeks as rookies. And for the most part, their values have stayed relatively steady in the dynasty context.

At least from a hit rate and floor standpoint. Because the ceiling-only argument leans more toward the fifth-round or later guys.

This makes sense as the later you get drafted, the less of a leash an RB has at the next level.

In the past five seasons, 55 running backs have been selected in rounds 5-7. Tyler Allgeier, Isiah Pacheco and Chase Brown have been the best of the bunch.

Over the same period, the big-hitting rookie running backs who significantly contributed to fantasy rosters were Phillip Lindsay and James Robinson, who both went undrafted. We’ve seen this more recently as well, with RBs like Jaylen Warren, Jaleel McLaughlin and Keaton Mitchell.

However, it’s still a massive uphill battle to wait until even early Day 3 to hear a running back’s name called.

From 2013 to 2021, just two Day 3 running backs finished as top-24 running backs (Jordan Howard in 2016, Zac Stacy in 2013). Pierce (RB27) and Allgeier (RB28) came extremely close to top-24 status in 2022. A few guys also came seriously close in 2021 — Elijah Mitchell (RB25), Michael Carter (RB29) and Chuba Hubbard (RB33) — but ultimately fell short of cresting fantasy RB2 status. Nobody was even close last season.

We should not value any rookie running back drafted on Day 3 with a top-24 price tag, regardless of their landing spot.

Part of this stems from these later-round backs having to earn touches and work their way up a depth chart. After all, the draft capital constitutes that teams don’t have to play them.

Because they can only gain opportunity by showing out their talent in practices or preseason, I would highly recommend a lean towards the talent/athleticism of Day 3 running backs. For this class, size in particular.

Again, RBs are a dime a dozen. But RBs like Braelon Allen (235 lbs), Kendall Milton (225 lbs), Isaac Guerendo (221 pounds), Audric Estime (221 pounds) and MarShawn Lloyd (220 pounds) offer size not all RBs can bring. This is where I’d feel most comfortable placing my chips before we know draft capital.

The same goes for avoiding the smaller RBs such as Bucky Irving, Frank Gore Jr. and Cody Schrader.

If they land on a team that boasts a weak running back depth chart, that should be added to the equation. But if all else is equal, go with the best player you think can deliver when called upon.

The RBs I continue to gravitate toward — although I am concerned with a lack of draft capital — are Audric Estime and Kendall Milton.

In this year’s class, I’d try to stay clear of the top “projected” rookie RBs. Chances are their prices will only go down after they get drafted later than expected, in likely lackluster landing spots.

Brooks is an avoid, given he is coming off a torn ACL and one year of college production. The list of rookie RBs entering the NFL that were productive coming off season-ending injuries is thin. Todd Gurley is the lone success, followed by a long list of major RB disappointments.

Gurley was the 10th overall pick the year he was drafted. Brooks might be picked in round three.

I’d much rather opt to take shots on guys like Lloyd (RB47), Allen (RB48) and Estime (RB59) at their suppressed costs because chances are their ADPs only go up after they are drafted. Especially if any sneak into round two or the early third.

I’d be lying if I wasn’t interested in Jaylen Wright or Tyrone Tracy. Wright compares very well in athletics to the aforementioned Jerick McKinnon/Tre Mason type. Same with Tracy, although he is much more of a deeper sleeper. Tracy also compares well and played WR in college at Iowa before switching to RB in 2023 at Purdue. In his first year as a running back, Tracy led his draft class in yards after contact per attempt. He was so underrated in this draft class that he is not even in the draft-eligible pool for rookies on Underdog.

Am told NFL scouts had Audric Estime between 4.56-4.59 in 40 at Notre Dame’s Pro Day today. Big improvement from his Combine performance.

Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders were a few teams paying close attention.

— Ryan Roberts (@RiseNDraft) March 21, 2024

Kendall Milton is also free but his EDP is so low it’s tough to justify the selection, even at RB95.

As for the remaining rookie RBs…

I feel no need to take any of these backs: Bucky Irving (RB54), Ray Davis (RB57), Will Shipley (RB62), Dylan Laube (RB67), Frank Gore Jr. (RB67) and Isaiah Davis (RB73). They will all likely get Day 3 draft capital, giving them no guarantees at the professional level to do anything.

In this RB50-RB70 range, you are much better off taking more concrete handcuffs such as Allgeier, Antonio Gibson, Elijah Mitchell, Miles Sanders, A.J. Dillon, Kenneth Gainwell, Alexander Mattison or Israel Abanikanda.

Wide Receivers

Ask anybody five years ago how long it takes for a wide receiver to break out and the typical response would usually be three seasons. But how the college game has evolved in recent years has influenced how impactful wide receivers can be from the start. LSU standouts Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are the peak examples of the phenomenon, shattering records as first-year players. Ohio State WRs Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave found similar success in their most recent rookie seasons. Last season, the trend continued; although it was with WRs being drafted outside the first round between Tank Dell and Puka Nacua who dominated as rookies.

Rookie Wide Receivers Since 2013

We have reached the point that if a receiver hasn’t hit by “Year 2” nowadays, the panic button goes off as both real-life and fantasy teams look to move on.

And I can’t argue the logic with that. The track record of rookie WRs who do nothing in Year 1 is bad. The most recent “success” story is D.J. Chark, who had a great sophomore year after virtually doing nothing as a rookie. He has done nothing since.

However, compared to running backs, you can see a stark contrast in hit rates based on draft capital. Twenty-six percent of first-round wide receivers finishing as top-24 options is slightly more probable than a third-round running back ending as a top-24 option (18%).

The most fantasy-relevant rookie wide receivers are consistently drafted in the first two rounds. Thirty-eight rookie wide receivers have finished inside the top 36 (WR3 territory) over the last 10 years — 31 were drafted inside the top two rounds of the NFL Draft (82%).

Round two or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 62% clip.

But similar to the running back position, there’s another drastic fall from round two to round three. Just 4-of-45 third-round wide receivers have finished top-36 since 2013, including one hit over the past four seasons — Tank Dell as the WR37. He likely would have easily surpassed this rank had it not been for the injuries.

There have been 35 wide receivers drafted in the fourth round from 2013-2020. Not a single one finished as a top-50 wide receiver in their rookie year.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only fourth-round WR to buck the trend since 2013. The Lions’ rookie wide receiver was the extreme outlier in this category in 2021, finishing as the WR21.

It was more of the same in 2023, with fourth-round rookie WRs between Derius Davis, Tyler Scott and Charlie Jones.

The primary takeaway is to go aggressively after wide receivers with round one or round two draft capital but be extremely wary of those that go round three or later. St. Brown’s blazing 2021 season is not the norm; fantasy managers should not chase the possibility because it will not be easily replicated.

And neither is Puka Nacua’s unprecedented ascension to WR1 status in 2023.

But attacking rookies in the 2024 draft class in the first two rounds will be easy because there’s a boatload of WR talent that should be drafted in the first two rounds. Last year, we got eight WRs in the first two rounds. The betting line for WRs to be selected in round one is set at O/U 6.5 WRs. Ten WRs have expected draft positions inside the top 34, per Grinding The Mocks. Thirteen WRs have expected draft positions inside the top 64 picks. The famous 2014 draft had 12 WRs selected in the first two rounds.

Simply put… some rookie WRs have ADPs that are too low.

Last season, all non-Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR30) rookie WRs were being selected after WR45. The year before, the top six rookie names were in the WR34-WR54 range.

The market has adjusted quickly to the ADPs of the big three WRs in this class: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR10), Malik Nabers (WR23) and Rome Odunze (WR31).

Odunze is going where Smith-Njigba went last season. Even though he’s a lock to be a top-10 pick. It’s also the same range guys like Drake London and Chris Olave were selected the year before. It’s also similar to the same pre-draft ADP Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith owned three years ago.

Harrison’s price tag is out of control, so I’d much rather take Nabers nearly 14 spots lower. But among the big three, Odunze’s the best value with the projection he will be a top-10 pick. The concern is he falls victim to what happened to Smith-Njigba a season ago — landing on a Bears depth chart with two established WRs already in place. Shane Waldron did this in Seattle last season.

From a value perspective… there’s a surplus of rookie WRs to target outside the big three.

Brian Thomas (WR38), Adonai Mitchell (WR48), Xavier Worthy (WR52), Troy Franklin (WR53), Ladd McConkey (WR55), Keon Coleman (WR58), Roman Wilson (WR69), Xavier Legette (WR70), Ricky Pearsall (WR73) and Ja’Lynn Polk (WR76).

Note that Malachi Corley (WR78) and Devontez Walker (WR80) are much closer to the round two/round three cusps and are best to be avoided for now.

Again, rookie WRs last season — in a weaker class — were going ahead of all the non-Brian Thomas WRs.

North Carolina’s Josh Downs was the WR69 in early best ball ADP last season. Jahan Dotson was overlooked pre-draft as the WR74 (rookie WR6) in early ADP despite projected draft capital at the end of round one in his draft class.

The ADP matches the consensus mock drafts and big boards of the WRs expected to be drafted first. But their overall ADPs are not fully capturing the odds of the overwhelming evidence that we will get close to 20 WRs drafted in the first three rounds, with potentially up to 15 in the first two rounds. In round two, the Panthers, Patriots, Chargers, Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Steelers, Cowboys, Lions and Ravens could all be in the market for another WR.

I’d bet we see picks 33 and 34 both be WRs by the Panthers and Patriots. Keep an eye out for one of these former Huskie WRs landing in New England. Patriots WRs coach Tyler Hughes spent the 2023 season at the University of Washington as a quality control coach on offense.

Among the rookie WRs going outside the top 48, my favorite values are Xavier Worthy, Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman and Xavier Legette. Their draft capital should be either round one or early round two.

One of Leggette’s closest comps is Davante Adams, per Mock Draftable. Another close comparable is Donte Moncrief, also a 2014 prospect.

Washington’s Jalen McMillan also looks like he’s being slept on. He’s a strong slot WR with an early breakout age and is a strong route runner. His ADP is WR95.

Malik Washington looks potentially overrated as the WR23, per the NFL Mock Draft Database. He looks like a lock as a Day 3 pick.

The last thing I want to note — again tying things back to the 2014 NFL Draft — the talent/production pool fell off a cliff after round two. Even in a talent-rich WR class, NFL coaches and GMs sniffed out almost all the top producers in the first two rounds. In a sense, nobody aside from John Brown and Martavis Bryant slipped through the cracks.

Dial in on the rookies with projected round one or two draft capital and reap the rewards. Especially in the late rounds. Grabbing these late-round WRs allows you to stockpile RBs, QBs and TEs earlier in your best ball drafts.

Tight Ends

There was once a time when you could always look the other way in redraft leagues when it comes to rookie tight ends. Kyle Pitts from three years ago looked like the lone exception to the general rule of thumb. He was used more like a wide receiver in the Atlanta Falcons offense, which is why he found success as the TE7 overall in his first season. The dude is also just a unicorn and no standard rookie tight ends should be compared to him. But give credit to Matt Ryan, no stranger to fueling fantasy success.

At the time, Pitts joined Evan Engram as the only rookie tight end to finish as a top-12 option over the last 10 years. Although Pat Freiermuth came close in 2021, finishing 2021 as the TE13 thanks to seven receiving touchdowns. The Penn State product is also the first rookie tight end selected in the second round to finish as a top-18 option since 2013.

I am burying the lede here, of course. 2023 brought us an elite rookie tight end and the overall fantasy TE1 in Sam LaPorta. Fellow rookie Dalton Kincaid also finished as a TE1 (TE12). We have now had four rookie tight ends finish inside the top 12 as rookies. And all played with good quarterbacks.

Tucker Kraft was also productive at TE28 as was fellow rookie Packers TE Luke Musgrave (TE31). Michael Mayer was the TE33 to round out a beyond-productive tight-end rookie class.

Rookie Tight Ends Since 2013

Still, a rookie tight end needs strong draft capital to produce in Year 1. 2022’s best-performing rookie tight end, Chigoziem Okonkwo, as a fifth-rounder is out of the norm.

Simply put, a rookie tight end almost always needs to be drafted in round one for hopes of fantasy relevance in Year 1 with a respectable 67 target average (TE20 last season). Round two is much tougher to get behind for any tight end historically — at least until last season.

For those with high hopes on rookie tight end Brock Bowers delivering in Year 1, you are in luck. He’s the TE9 in ADP as a sure-fire lock to be a high first-rounder and the No. 1 overall tight end selected. The Georgia product is also not being slept on in any capacity compared to last year’s first-round projected TEs between Mayer (TE21) and Kincaid (TE25).

Even so, Bowers is being drafted very close to his ceiling as a locked-in fantasy TE1, with the potential that he does not get a favorable landing spot. Part of the reason why highly drafted rookie tight ends have failed is they go to bad teams with bad QBs.

But unlike last season when we had a depth of strong rookie TEs — six inside the first two rounds — this year’s class falls drastically after Bowers. No tight end is being mocked in round two. The highest TE after Bowers is Texas’ Ja’Tavion Sanders at No. 53 overall. After that, we have just three more inside the top 105 between Cade Stover, Theo Johnson and Ben Sinnott.

Also, there’s a lack of top landing spots for tight ends. The top destinations are headlined by the Colts and Panthers, followed by the Titans, Jets, Chargers, Rams, Giants and Commanders.

Bowers’ betting odds favor the Jets as his top spot, followed by the Colts, Bengals, Chargers and Broncos. Per Tony Pauline, the Chargers, Titans, Bears and Jets are all in on Bowers. It’s possible he won’t make it past Denver at 12.

The Chargers would be ideal, as would the Jets. Titans would be a decent spot. And the Bears could be a disaster given all the mouths to feed in that offense. Chances are Bowers gets a landing spot where he can produce from Day 1. That makes him worth the upside as the TE9, even though it’s not much of a “value” selection. He can be a difference-maker and it is cheap enough to justify the price.

Among non-Bowers rookie tight ends, Sanders is being drafted as the TE25. That’s way too high for a potential late second-round pick. Sinnott, Johnson and Jaheim Bell are the next highest-drafted rookies, between 38-54.

Right now, the only tight end that looks like a value is Cade Stover at TE60, despite the highest projected draft capital after the top two. Stover is well-rounded and has sure hands (only two recorded drops). He scored 10 TDs in the last two seasons. He’s not the greatest blocker, which could lend itself to him being used more in a strict receiving role. He was first recruited as a linebacker before switching to tight end.

Stover is going eerily close (87th) to where Tucker Kraft was mocked in 2023 (70th overall).

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