Fantasy Basketball Category Analysis & Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 18 (2024)

The second half of the NBA season is upon us, and now it’s time to shake things up a bit. With the landscape changing after an active trade season, we will start pushing the limits on how we identify and take advantage of opportunities on the waver wire.

While we will continue to strategically identify players who can take your team to the next level, things at this point in the game may not make sense and, to be quite frank, may get a little weird. Still, we are in this thing together, and it’s my job to be logical, illogical, right and wrong, all to encourage you to make your most noteworthy moves to get you that championship crown.

As always, I would like to thank the readers and members of our FantasyPros community. Your choice to read and engage with this article as a part of your fantasy basketball strategy means a lot. In a world packed with many options to satisfy your fantasy needs, including this article as part of your means to address them is humbling and immensely appreciated. With that said, let’s get down to business.

For those just joining us, welcome! This is your weekly dose of fantasy basketball possibilities as we explore and identify players who can help take your team to the next level in your quest for the championship crown of your league. It’s a long season, so it’s beneficial to maintain an “it’s-a-marathon-not-a-sprint” mindset as you strategize and tailor your weekly or season-long approach to maximize your team’s value and potential.

Each week, we will look at widely available players rostered in fewer than 65% of fantasy leagues on Yahoo!. We will focus on building strategies in eight-category leagues with standard scoring (more details outlined below).

Insights about the highlighted players will concentrate on how they can contribute to the aligned category but also touch on how they can contribute to various other categories.

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Fantasy Basketball Category Analysis & Waiver Wire Pickups

(Statistics and data courtesy of nba.com)

Fantasy Format

Scoring Type:

Head-to-Head (Most Categories)

Player Stat Categories:

• Points Scored (PTS)
• Total Rebounds (REB)
• Assists (AST)
• Steals (ST)
• Block Shots (BLK)
• 3-Point Shots Made (3PTM)
• Field Goal Percentage (FG%)
• Free Throw Percentage (FT%)

Roster Positions:

• Point Guard (PG)
• Shooting Guard (SG)
• Guard (G)
• Small Forward (SF)
• Power Forward (PF)
• Center (C) x 2
• Utility (UTIL) x 2
• Bench (BN) x 2
• Injured List (IL) x 3

About the Upcoming Week Analysis

The analysis evaluates four key areas to determine the players’ and teams’ performance potential against weekly opponents. This analysis considers categories: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, Three-Pointers Made and Field-Goal Percentage.

The analysis assesses the following:

Grades were developed by comparing players’ stats and team dynamics against opponents’ strengths and weaknesses.

Note: Data collected from NBA.com dated on Saturday, March 2, before main-slate game.

Points

Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG, SF – DAL): 51% Rostered

Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging 16.7 points (T-74th in the league), 3.1 three-pointers made (T-16th in the league) and 2.2 free-throws made (96th in the league) per game. while shooting 41.3% from the floor, 36.3% from beyond the arc and 87.5% from the free-throw line. He is an offensive enforcer on one of the league’s most offensively talented teams, with an offensive rating of 117.6 (seventh in the league). He will undoubtedly be positioned well to play aggressively as the team prepares for their postseason run.

While we all have our reasons for not seeing his rostering as a priority, and though a 51.0% rostership rating isn’t bad, it is too low for someone of his caliber at this point of the season. No doubt, his lack of consistency in rebounding, assists and STOCKs put a damper on his appeal, especially given his shooting inefficiencies from time to time. Still, we shouldn’t take for granted what he does offer. Not one acquisition will alter your team on its own; we all know this. However, Hardaway Jr. might be one of the few remaining plays you can get that has the potential to single-handedly alter your matchups when deployed strategically at an above-average magnitude.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Mavericks have three games this upcoming week. Dallas is gearing up for a week where their scoring prowess – seventh in the league with an average of 118.8 points per game – will be put to the test against the Pacers, Heat and Pistons. Their offensive strategy, characterized by a blend of pace and precision, faces varying degrees of defensive resistance.

The matchups against the defensively weaker Pacers (28th in OPP PTS) and Pistons (27th in OPP PTS) present a sizable opportunity for the Mavericks to capitalize and exploit their opponent’s efforts. Given the Mavericks’ offensive efficiency and their opponents’ defensive lapses, these games are poised to be high-scoring affairs. The game against the Heat (third in OPP PTS) represents a formidable challenge. This matchup calls for a strategic shift and heightened execution from the Mavericks to challenge the Heat’s opportunistic front. The Mavericks’ ability to adjust their game plan and exploit potential defensive weaknesses will be crucial in this matchup.

Hardaway Jr., with a respectable offensive rating of 117.2 and averaging 16.7 points per game, is a critical part of the team’s offensive success. His performance against the differing defenses of the Pacers, Pistons and particularly the Heat, will be something to note. The effectiveness of Dallas’ offense, heavily supported by Hardaway Jr.’s scoring ability, will be instrumental in dictating the Mavericks’ success in these contests.

On the Radar

Caris LeVert (SG, SF – CLE): 41% Rostered – 14.1 PPG – Rank: 100th

• Waiver Priority: Medium
• Opponent(s) (Wk.18): BOS, @ATL, MIN, BKN
• Average OPP PTS (Wk.18): 113.5
• Average OPP PTS Rank (Wk.18): 14th
• Hold Length: Week 18

Rebounds

Precious Achiuwa (PF, C – NYK): 59% Rostered

Precious Achiuwa has done a good job transitioning into his new role as a starter. He shows signs of putting together and sustaining a complete game, demonstrating his potential as a two-way player. While his 6.6 rebounds per game (56th in the league) is the focal point of his value proposition, his scoring ability may begin to resurface. It’s a small data set, but in his final and only season at Memphis, he averaged 30.4 minutes and 15.8 points per game. Since he joined the league, he has averaged 19.8 minutes and 7.9 points per game. For simplicity’s sake, if you were to double his current amount of minutes and points production, he would be averaging around the same mark.

With Julius Randle‘s and OG Anunoby‘s absence, the team will be looking for offensive production, a serious need to address if they hope to compete with the likes of Milwaukee, Boston and Cleveland. Achiuwa has the potential to significantly help if Isaiah Hartenstein can stay healthy, allowing him to settle more effectively and efficiently into a more offensive-focused role in the frontcourt. A role like this could be transformative for a lineup. Managers should see how they can get the most out of their bigs, and with his dual role as a four and five, he offers more flexibility for how you construct your roster.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Knicks have three games this upcoming week. New York, boasting the fifth-highest rebounding average in the league at 45.7 rebounds per game, has some intriguing matchups against the Hawks, Magic and 76ers this week. Each opponent presents a unique challenge to the Knicks’ rebounding capabilities, potentially influencing their overall performance in this crucial category.

Against the Hawks (23rd in OPP REB), the Knicks have a favorable matchup to exploit. This contest provides New York an opportunity to capitalize on Atlanta’s less competitive rebounding defense, potentially enhancing their own rebound totals. The Magic (1st in OPP REB) represent a significant hurdle. This matchup will require the Knicks to intensify their efforts on the boards, making a strategic approach to overcoming Orlando’s stringent defense a must. The game against the Sixers (18th in OPP REB) offers a moderately favorable setting for the Knicks and an opportunity for the Knicks to implement a balanced and tactical effort to compete against Philadelphia’s defensive setup to secure rebounds effectively.

Central to the Knicks’ rebounding strategy is the pace of play. As the team with the slowest pace in the league, quality possessions for the Knicks are pivotal to helping New York’s success in maximizing rebounding opportunities. The contrasting paces of their opponents, from the fast-paced Hawks to the more deliberate Magic, add an additional layer of strategic complexity to these contests.

Achiuwa’s presence on the boards has been significant in the team’s efforts. Achiuwa’s defensive rating of 113.6, coupled with an average of 7.6 rebounds per game, underscores his integral role in fortifying the Knicks’ rebounding strategy. His ability to compete against the Magic’s stifling rebounding defense, as well as exploiting opportunities against the Hawks and Sixers, will be crucial for New York’s success in these matchups.

With Achiuwa’s performance as a key determinant, this week presents an opportunity for the Knicks to assert their rebounding dominance and showcase their tactical prowess in overcoming the challenges presented by their opponents.

On the Radar

Day’Ron Sharpe (C – BKN): 5% Rostered – 6.8 RPG – Rank: 52nd

• Waiver Priority: Low-Medium
• Opponent(s) (Wk.18): MEM, PHI, @DET, @CHA, @CLE
• Average OPP REB(Wk.18): 44.12
• Average OPP REB Rank (Wk.18): 19th
• Hold Length: Week 18

Assists

Dennis Schroder (PG – BKN): 63% Rostered

Dennis Schroder is a talented player, even at this stage of his career. Since his departure from Atlanta after the 2017-2018 season, inconsistencies in his play, role and health have substantially impacted his ability to sustain quality minutes to cement his status as a lead guard in the league. However, despite the question marks surrounding the validity and reliability of his contribution, he has yet to turn in a poor season. He now has a chance to position himself as a viable and critical part of the Nets’ immediate and long-term vision and is poised to remind us of his staying power when afforded the chance to do so.

While his 5.9 assists per game (29th in the league) may take a back seat to his scoring ability – 13.5 points per game (111th in the league) – as the Nets figure out how to deploy their backcourt assets best, Schroder is in an excellent position to turn in some team altering value for managers looking for an immediate and long-term answer for their guard needs. Schroder’s slow start, from a facilitation perspective, could be attributed to the current health of the team’s backcourt.

With Ben Simmons and Cam Thomas both less than 100%, the team could leverage Schroder in a two-guard role while deploying fellow teammate Dennis Smith Jr. as the one. If this is the case, Smith Jr. also becomes an intriguing play as his familiarity and understated talent.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Nets have five games this upcoming week. With a middle-of-the-pack assist average of 26.6 per game, Brooklyn faces various defensive challenges in their upcoming matchups.

The Nets are up against defenses that are relatively effective at limiting assists, going against the Grizzlies (11th in OPP AST) and the Sixers (14th in OPP AST). These matchups, given the Nets’ ranking and the slight edge their opponents have in assist defense, suggest a closely contested battle in the playmaking department. However, the Pistons (17th in OPP AST) and the Hornets (27th in OPP AST) present the Nets with opportunities to exploit weaker defenses and potentially exceed their assist averages. The Cavaliers (second in OPP AST) represent the toughest challenge, indicating a need for the Nets to elevate their playmaking strategies to succeed.

Brooklyn operates at a slower tempo, which could influence their assist production. This slower game pace might not inherently disadvantage the Nets. Rather, it could allow for more deliberate offensive setups against teams like the Pistons and Hornets, who play at a faster pace but have less stringent assist defenses.

A key component in this strategic endeavor is Schroder, whose performance and ability to generate assists against the varied defensive strengths of upcoming opponents will be pivotal. Despite a modest offensive rating, his assist ratio and percentage highlight his potential impact on the Nets’ playmaking success.

The Nets face a challenging but potentially rewarding series of games. With strategic adjustments and effective use of their playmaking resources, they can overcome defensive obstacles and maximize their assist production.

On the Radar

Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, SG – LAL): 45% Rostered – 5.7 APG – Rank: 32nd

• Waiver Priority: Medium
• Opponent(s) (Wk.18): OKC, SAC, MIL, MIN
• Average OPP AST (Wk.18): 26.37
• Average OPP AST Rank (Wk.18): 12th
• Hold Length: Week 18-19

Steals

Kelly Oubre Jr. (SG, SF – PHI): 50% Rostered

Kelly Oubre Jr. may be dinged up, but he is a multicategorical contributor that could pay off in a big way as you look to build depth and utility into your lineups. He is averaging 1.2 steals per game (37th in the league), which is great if you are looking to bolster your competitive position in this category. However, he is also averaging 13.7 points (104th in the league) and 4.5 rebounds (129th in the league) per game, offering some additional, impactful production in these two pivotal categories. While his play can sometimes be conservative and not as comprehensive as we would like, the numbers don’t lie.

With the Sixers fighting to stay alive in the East and the league as a whole, one could say they will require everyone to play above their potential and out of their comfort zone, presenting Oubre Jr. with the perfect opportunity to show up in a big way. While the validity of his production is strong, it is more than understandable to question the reliability and consistency of his value from game to game. Still, don’t let that cloud your evaluation of this talent too much, preventing you from seeing how he could be an integral asset to your lineup for the long haul.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Sixers have four games this upcoming week. With their league-leading average of 8.5 steals per game, Philadelphia is set to face off against a range of offensive fronts in their upcoming matchups against the Nets, Grizzlies, Pelicans and Knicks.

Against the Nets (fifth in OPP STL) and Pelicans (fourth in OPP STL), who are among the league’s best at limiting opponent steals, the Sixers might face a tougher challenge. These games will test the Sixers’ defensive agility and their ability to disrupt their opponents’ ball-handling. The matchup against the Grizzlies (23rd in OPP STL) appears to be more advantageous for the Sixers. This game could provide Philadelphia with ample opportunities to capitalize on their defensive strengths and potentially exceed their average steals per game. The Knicks (sixth in OPP STL) present a slightly difficult challenge. Yet, considering Philadelphia’s leading status in steals, they still possess the potential to leverage their defensive prowess effectively across these games.

Oubre Jr., with a defensive rating of 116.4 and averaging 1.2 steals per game, stands as a critical piece in the Sixers’ strategy to generate steals. His performance will be pivotal, especially against teams with strong ball control like the Nets and Pelicans. The Sixers’ pace of play, coupled with Oubre Jr.’s defensive skills, suggests that while the matchups against the Nets and Pelicans might be more challenging, there remains a significant opportunity against the Grizzlies and a balanced scenario against the Knicks.

The Sixers’ upcoming games offer a mixed bag of opportunities for steals production. The effectiveness of their defense, particularly Oubre’s contribution, will be crucial in exploiting these opportunities and navigating the challenges.

On the Radar

Jalen Suggs (PG, SG – ORL): 48% Rostered – 1.4 SPG – Rank: 14th

• Waiver Priority: Medium
• Opponent(s) (Wk.18): @CHA, @WAS, @NYK, IND
• Average OPP STL (Wk.18): 7.12
• Average OPP STL Rank (Wk.18): 13th
• Hold Length: Week 18

Blocks

Nick Richards (C – CHA): 52% Rostered

Although he hasn’t necessarily taken full advantage of his situation in Charlotte, Nick Richards has been a great source of defensive value for those looking to bolster their competitive advantage in blocks and rebounds. He is averaging 1.3 blocks (22nd in the league) and 8.0 rebounds (34th in the league) per game. While this is the focal point of his immediate value proposition to managers, his understated value as a scorer could begin to shine through as the Hornets progress through the rest of the season.

His pedigree as a scorer stems from his final season at Kentucky, when he averaged 29.6 minutes and 14.0 points a game. He hasn’t been allotted even close to that amount of time on the floor since entering the league. Yet, his career average of 16.1 minutes and 6.5 points a game somewhat supports the notion that he could emerge as a scoring contributor, especially with the exciting of Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington, plus injuries to LaMelo Ball.

At this point, the biggest threat to him being able to break out as a player and fantasy darling truly is the overall direction and commitment of the Charlotte coaching staff and organization. He could be a game-changer late in the season if they decide to seriously establish some cohesive identity within their front and backcourts, allowing Richards to serve as a two-way enforcer.

Upcoming Week Analysis

Charlotte faces a challenging week ahead, with matchups against the Magic, Wizards and Nets. Currently ranked 22nd in the league for blocks with an average of 4.7 per game, the Hornets’ block production is modest when compared to their upcoming opponents’ ability to prevent blocks. The Magic (sixth in OPP BLK) and Nets (13th in OPP BLK), with their relatively stingy block allowances, may not seem like the most favorable matchups. However, the Wizards (24th in OPP BLK) present a more opportune matchup for the Hornets to exploit.

The Hornets’ pace positions them for strategic advantages. Against the fast-paced Wizards, they can dictate game flow to enhance defensive setups, potentially increasing block opportunities. Matchups with the Magic and Nets, teams with similar tempos, present closely contested scenarios where slight pace adjustments could yield defensive benefits for the Hornets.

With a defensive rating of 119.3 and averaging 1.3 blocks per game, Richards stands as a critical force in these contests. His performance against these teams, particularly the Wizards, could be crucial for the Hornets to bolster their block production.

This week’s games are not just tests of the Hornets’ defensive mettle but also opportunities for Richards to assert his influence on the defensive end. The varying offensive threats posed by the opponents, alongside the Hornets’ game environment, could shape the outcomes of these matchups, potentially tilting the scales in favor of the Hornets where it seemed less likely.

On the Radar

Dereck Lively II (C – DAL): 48% Rostered – 1.5 BPG – Rank: 16th

• Waiver Priority: Medium
• Opponent(s) (Wk.18): IND, MIA, @DET
• Average OPP BLK (Wk.18): 5.53
• Average OPP BLK Rank (Wk.18): 23rd
• Hold Length: Week 18-19

Three-Pointers Made

Duncan Robinson (SG, SF – MIA): 39% Rostered

Duncan Robinson is going to shoot, shoot, shoot and shoot. Even with all of the constant changes and adjustments with the rotation, the only thing that has seemed to slow him down is health. It takes him some time to ramp up, which could detract from his immediate and long-term appeal. Still, he is an offensive weapon that can offer you some competitive boost in the more nuanced offensive categories, setting you up firmly to compete in other major performance categories.

He is averaging 2.8 three-pointers made (26th in the league) on 6.8 three-pointers attempted (31st in the league) per game. He is equally aggressive in his shot selection from the floor, going for 4.6 field goals made (130th in the league) on 10.1 field-goal attempts (121st in the league) per game. To go along with his high volume profile, his efficiency isn’t that bad either, as he is averaging 13.3 points (115th in the league) per game while shooting 45.5% from the floor and 40.9% from beyond the arc.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Heat have four games this upcoming week. Miami’s approach to leveraging its three-point strategy reveals challenges and opportunities in a series of matchups with varying defensive strengths against three-point shots. With an average of 12.4 three-pointers made per game, positioning them 17th in the league, the Heat’s capability from beyond the arc is set to be tested against teams like the Pistons (seventh in OPP 3PM), Mavericks (20th in OPP 3PM), Thunder (26th in OPP 3PM) and Wizards (11th in OPP 3PM). These teams present a spectrum of defensive efficiency against the three-pointer, from the stringent Pistons allowing just 11.9 per game to the more permissive Wizards at 12.5.

The Heat’s methodical pace provides a tactical advantage against opponents like the Pistons, Mavericks, Thunder and Wizards, facilitating the exploitation of defensive weaknesses through carefully selected three-point shots. Miami’s slower game tempo could enable them to turn their pace into a strategic asset for efficient perimeter scoring.

With an offensive rating of 113.1, the Heat demonstrate adequate scoring efficiency, which could open up three-point scoring avenues against the defensive weaknesses of teams such as the Mavericks and Wizards. With his notable offensive rating and three-point capability, Robinson emerges as a pivotal figure in this equation, potentially carving out significant opportunities against the fluctuating defenses of the Heat’s adversaries.

This scenario paints a nuanced landscape for the Heat’s three-point ambitions. By leveraging Robinson’s sharpshooting and designing play schemes to penetrate the defensive lapses of their opponents, the Heat are positioned to potentially amplify their three-point output. Their success will largely depend on integrating their controlled pace with precise, high-quality three-point shots, aiming to outsmart and outplay the defensive setups of their varied opponents.

On the Radar

Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG, SF – DAL): 51% Rostered – 3.1 3PM Rank: T-16th

• Waiver Priority: Medium-High
• Opponent(s) (Wk.18): IND, MIA, @DET
• Average OPP 3PM (Wk.18): 12.06
• Average OPP 3PM Rank (Wk.18): 8th
• Hold Length: Week 18-19

Field-Goal Percentage

Marvin Bagley (PF, C – WAS): 54% Rostered

Marvin Bagley is here to stay. Barring any injury setbacks, he is poised to solidify his spot in the frontcourt alongside Kyle Kuzma as the Wizards look to shape and evolve their talented, albeit understated, stable talent. He is shooting 58.1% from the floor (57th in the league) but is doing so while playing aggressive ball and asserting his two-way presence in the process, totaling 8.2 field-goal attempts per game (164th in the league).

Bagley is averaging a respectable 11.7 points (144th in the league), 6.1 rebounds (68th in the league) and 0.7 blocks per game (96th in the league). The stench of an injury-riddled career at this point still creates an understandable risk-averse approach to handling his integration into your lineups. Still, be sure to see the cup half-full at some point so you don’t miss out on a potentially game-changing asset at this point in the season.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Wizards have four games this upcoming week. Washington, ranking 18th in the league, is positioned well to capitalize on their upcoming matchups. They face the Jazz (21st in OPP FG%), Magic (19th in OPP FG%), Hornets (27th in OPP FG%) and Heat (14th in OPP FG%). The varying degrees of rankings within these matchups suggest the Wizards have a moderate-to-high advantage against most of their upcoming opponents.

The Wizards’ league-leading pace of 103.62 indicates a high-tempo game strategy, contrasting with the slower paces of their upcoming opponents, particularly the Magic and Heat, ranked 26th and 28th, respectively. This disparity suggests that the Wizards’ fast-paced play could increase their field-goal attempts, potentially exploiting the slower-paced defenses to create more scoring opportunities. This is especially true against teams like the Hornets and Jazz, who are less effective in defending field-goals.

Moreover, with the Wizards’ offensive rating at 110.6, facing opponents with defensive ratings ranging from moderately efficient Magic to less effective Hornets, there’s a clear pathway for the Wizards to leverage their offensive efficiency for higher FG% production. The matchups against the Jazz and Hornets appear particularly favorable, given these teams’ lower defensive ratings, indicating a higher potential for the Wizards to score efficiently.

Bagley’s efficiency far exceeds the defensive capabilities of the upcoming opponents, suggesting that he could be a critical factor in exploiting these defensive weaknesses.

The combination of the Wizards’ overall offensive capabilities, their fast-paced play and Bagley’s individual efficiency, presents a promising scenario for capitalizing on the defensive vulnerabilities of their upcoming opponents.

On the Radar

T.J. McConnell (PG – IND): 14% Rostered – 54.1% FG% Rank 85th

• Waiver Priority: Medium-Low
• Opponent(s) (Wk.18): @DAL, MIN, @ORL
• Average OPP FG% (Wk.18): 46.8%
• Average OPP FG% Rank (Wk.18): 10th
• Hold Length: Week 18

Free-Throw Percentage

De’Andre Hunter (SF – ATL): 54% Rostered

De’Andre Hunter is an offensive talent who has been able to reintegrate himself almost effortlessly back into the picture on a talented Hawks squad fighting to keep their post-season hopes alive. With the injury to Trae Young, the team will be looking to address the dip in their offensive production, and Hunter could serve as a viable stabilizing tool as they figure things out. He doesn’t offer much ceiling as an offensive weapon, but he provides a solid floor of production that you can build on as you get more creative with the rest of your lineup.

His aggressive play style helps the team manage tempo by exploiting weak defenses, as demonstrated by his work at the free-throw line. Hunter is averaging 3.6 free-throw attempts (65th in the league) and 3.2 made free-throws (56th in the league) per game, shooting 88.8% from the charity stripe (66th in the league). He is also averaging 15.2 points (92nd in the league), 3.9 rebounds (170th in the league) and 0.8 steals (T-171st) per game. Hunter is also shooting 48.0% from the floor and 41.6% from beyond the arc, some additional incentive to begin seeing him more as a foundational piece to supporting your production across several categories.

On the Radar

Bruce Brown Jr. (PG, SG, SF – TOR): 44% Rostered – 86.4% FT% Rank T-90th

• Waiver Priority: Medium
• Opponent(s) (Wk.18): @NYK, CLE, @MEM, NOP
• Average OPP FT% (Wk.18): 77.8%
• Average OPP FT% Rank (Wk.18): 12th
• Hold Length: Week 18

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