We all know one of the easiest ways to dominate your fantasy baseball league is to find breakout players later in drafts. Knowing who to look for to maximize the value of your picks can be difficult but incredibly rewarding if you pull it off.
While this isn’t your typical “breakouts” article, it’s meant to serve the same purpose. Fantasy X-Factors are players who will be difference makers for both their team and your fantasy baseball team. Sometimes that player may be a second-rounder looking to take their game to the next level. Other times it could be an 18th-rounder with the potential to end up as a top-five talent at the position.
With that in mind, let’s cut the intro short and get straight into the list.
Fantasy Baseball X-Factors
Arizona Diamondbacks
If you rostered Brandon Pfaadt at some point during the 2023 regular season you had quite the wild ride. He went from leading the minors in strikeouts in 2022 to getting absolutely tattooed in the majors in 2023. He figured it out in the postseason, though, striking out 26 across 22 innings with a 3.27 ERA and a 24.1% K-BB rate.
If he can recapture that form he’s in for a season mirroring that of teammate Merrill Kelly.
Also considered: Gabriel Moreno, Eugenio Suarez
Atlanta Braves
Sean Murphy was the prized addition to the 2023 Braves. He proceeded to have one of the oddest, most up-and-down seasons in the league. He started the season losing playing time to Travis d’Arnaud, then went on a two-month stretch where he slashed .313/.386/.544, and finally ended the three months of the season hitting .192.
He cited the heat being a factor for his struggles (weird excuse but, ok). I hope with a year of adjusting he won’t have that issue this season. If that’s the case, Murphy is a lock as a top-seven catcher despite being drafted well after that.
Also considered: Ronald Acuna Jr.
Baltimore Orioles
Admittedly, I’ve been looking for an excuse to discuss Jackson Holliday. With as stacked as the Orioles lineup is with young talent, Holliday stands out above them all. All he’s done since being drafted is mash professional pitching. In 541 minor league at-bats, he’s hit .320 and flashed pop (57 XBH) and speed (28 steals). That’s translated this spring where he’s hitting .323 thus far, including a massive grand slam off a high fastball from fellow lefty Yusei Kikuchi.
He’s projected to start the season batting lower in the lineup. Should he find himself in the leadoff spot the sky’s the limit for Holliday as a rookie.
Also considered: Coby Mayo, Anthony Santander
Boston Red Sox
The 2023 post-hype breakout campaign of Jarren Duran was fun to watch. He found a way to go from question mark to one of the best doubles hitters in baseball. Despite injuries keeping him to just 102 games, Duran still managed 34 doubles and 44 total XBH.
In the second half of the season, pitchers refused to give Duran anything to hit. Should he start 2024 seeing pitches, Duran could be in line for a 50-double, 35-strong base season while hitting what ATC projects to be around a .262 batting average.
Also considered: Ceddanne Rafaela
Chicago White Sox
As of writing this, the White Sox’s projected Opening Day roster is bad. Really bad. But you know who hasn’t been? Eloy Jimenez. His power has never been a question mark. He’s got a career average exit velocity of 91.5 miles per hour (MPH) and a barrel rate of 12.2%. For Jimenez, it’s always been health.
He played 120 games in 2023, which, to be honest, is probably 30 more than we all expected. He’s shown this spring that the hit tool is still there and he can still flash the big power, so should his health let him once again play 120+ games the value return on his current average draft position (ADP) of 177 has the potential to be significant.
Also considered: Drew Thorpe, Colson Montgomery
Chicago Cubs
All the hype surrounding the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto has dimmed the spotlight on Shota Imanaga a bit. It shouldn’t have. That’s not a slight against Yamamoto, consider it a “Hey this guy is really good, pay attention” type of reminder.
Spring training stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. However, in just over nine innings, Imanaga has proven to be dominant. His 2.22 xFIP and 41.5% K-BB rate should translate come the regular season. Especially if he can keep elevating his fastball and burying his splitter in the dirt.
Also considered: Michael Busch, Justin Steele
Cincinnati Reds
It should come as no surprise to hear Elly De La Cruz is arguably the most polarizing player in fantasy baseball. He proved last season the elite upside is real. Hitting 35 XBH and recording 35 stolen bases in just 98 games will do that. The problem is the strikeouts. A 40.2% strikeout rate against lefties and 31.1% against righties left much to be desired.
He improved his swing decisions drastically in the second half of 2023. If he can continue that trend and get the strikeout rate in check, he has the quality contact numbers and speed to be worthy of his current second-round ADP.
Also considered: Nick Lodolo, Jake Fraley
Cleveland Guardians
Oh, how the mighty Shane Bieber has fallen. It’s fair to say we were all very “whelmed” in 2023 when it came to his season-long performance. Velocity was down, movement was down, strikeouts were down and hard contact was way up. His 47.6% hard contact was a career-high while his 13.7% K-BB rate was a career-low. A literal disaster of a performance for a guy we all hoped could return to glory.
This offseason he did the “I went to Driveline” thing. He made a concerted effort to increase his fastball velocity and regain command of his breaking stuff. If the offseason work can translate to in-season success, Bieber has a top-25 SP upside.
Also considered: Bo Naylor, Kyle Manzardo
Colorado Rockies
Speaking of the mighty fallen, how many of you remember MVP Kris Bryant? Granted, that was eight years ago, but it feels like a millennium ago. The injury bug can be thanked for that as he’s played just 122 games total the last two seasons.
In 2024, Bryant finally seems to be fully healthy. Although he’s batting just .182 this spring, his two home runs show his power may be coming back. He thrives on pulled flyballs and if he can get back to that version of himself at Coors Field, we can see the resurgence in his performance that was supposed to happen in Colorado.
Also considered: Ezequiel Tovar
Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal is one of the most exciting “what if?” players this season. After returning from injury, Skubal put together a run of 15 games down the stretch that was almost too good to believe. His 2.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP proved he has it in him to be dominant for more than just a game or two. Pair that with his 16.6% swinging strike rate (98th percentile), 33% CSW (99th), 30.9% ICR (99th percentile) and 28.4% K-BB rate and you get a pitcher that strikes hitters out like Spencer Strider while painting the zone like George Kirby.
Tarik Skubal, Filthy 3 elevated Changeup K Sequence…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/qrMm80pHEJ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 16, 2024
This spring, Skubal has had his fastball flirting with 98 MPH and his location has been elite. If he can continue this dominance into the season (and stay healthy), Skubal ends the season as a top-10 pitcher. If it comes crashing down, he becomes someone who cost you a crucial early-round pick.
Also considered: Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene
Houston Astros
Have you seen those “Fact or Cap” guys on TikTok? Chase McCormick’s 2023 season qualifies as crazy enough for them to take a look. After managing an identical amount of doubles (12), home runs (14) and stolen bases (4) in both 2021 & 2022, McCormick exploded in 2023. Despite playing essentially the same amount of games in 2023 he put together a masterclass of a season with 22 dingers and 19 steals.
He’s currently slotted for an everyday spot in the lineup in 2024, something he’s never had in his career. He is projected for 40 XBH and 16 stolen bases in just over 500 plate appearances by ATC. This is what makes McCormick an X-factor. Should he get that 500+ at-bats he may easily end the year in the 25/25 club. A rare but exciting club to be in for the often-overlooked outfielder in Houston. Those who draft him are likely to be rewarded handsomely.
Also considered: Kyle Tucker
Kansas City Royals
Everyone likes to do a “This year’s so-and-so” article. If I were to do one for 2024 it would be “Maikel Garcia is this year’s Yandy Diaz“. They profile very similarly on the batted-ball side of things. In fact, 2022 Diaz and 2023 Garcia could be the same player.
| Barrel% | Launch Angle | HH% | Average Exit Velo | xBA | |
| 2022 Diaz | 4.8% | 7.7 degrees | 49% | 92.2 MPH | .288 |
| 2023 Garcia | 3.9% | 6.1 degrees | 50.6% | 91.8 MPH | .274 |
One of the big differences between them is the good speed Garcia possesses. He stole 27 bases last season and has 30 stolen base upside this season. If he can take the same path and see a production jump in 2024, he could be a steal.
Also considered: Cole Ragans, Vinnie Pasquantino
Los Angeles Angels
2023 ended up being both the highest of highs and the lowest of lows for Zach Neto. After his speed run through the minors, he started great. He flashed great contact, good speed and enough power to keep things interesting. Then the injury bug bit and it all went downhill.
From June 15th, he hit just .174 with a 31% strikeout rate and a contact rate that dropped 11%. That’s seemingly the version of Neto everyone remembers coming into 2024. He’s shown this spring he’s fully healthy, hitting .282 with five XBH and three stolen bases. Although he is likely to bat toward the bottom of the lineup, Neto is going late enough in drafts that he makes for an excellent value pick.
Also considered: Taylor Ward
Los Angeles Dodgers
The 2024 Dodgers are going to be must-watch television. It feels like everyone on their team is an MVP candidate and the ones that aren’t are still perennial All-Star caliber players. Then you have Gavin Stone.
2023 was a rough year for him, amassing a 9.00 ERA and a 5.9% K-BB rate in 31 major league innings. This spring he looks like a new man. Granted, spring numbers need to be taken lightly, but he’s striking people out at an impressive rate. His 24.2% K-BB rate is elite and after officially being named the Dodgers’ fifth starter, the sky may be the limit for Stone. He’s very cheap in drafts and may end the year as the biggest breakout pitcher of 2024.
Also considered: Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Miami Marlins
This spot was originally slated to go to Eury Perez, but with the injury news, it now goes to the next man up. Jazz Chisholm is an X-factor in his own right. Arguably one of the few players in baseball with legitimate 40/40 upside… if he could only stay healthy.
Last season was probably his best yet, going 19/22 with 33 total XBH in under 100 games. If he stays healthy, he’s Fernando Tatis Jr. If he doesn’t, he’s going late enough in drafts you can still enjoy his healthy stretches without worrying about it crippling your team.
Also considered: Josh Bell
Milwaukee Brewers
Admittedly, I don’t like a ton of Brewers this season, but I love Jackson Chourio as an X-factor. In a league filled with youngsters who excel in all five tools, Chourio seemingly fits the bill as the next man up. Expect to quickly see his name amongst the likes of Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr, Corbin Carroll and Elly De La Cruz.
He amassed 51 XBH and 44 stolen bases across 128 minor league games in 2023. He did this while maintaining a strikeout rate below 20% and a 57% hard-hit rate in his short stint in Triple-A. Chourio is the real deal and the definition of an X-factor.
Also considered: Willy Adames, Freddy Peralta
Minnesota Twins
Royce Lewis gets the nod much for the same reason as Chisholm. The talent Royce Lewis possesses is immense. The ability to stay healthy, on the other hand, is severely lacking. Lewis has played just 118 games since the conclusion of the 2019 season. Essentially what equates to 73% of one season’s games over four years.
425 FEET pic.twitter.com/BvutvNh8f2
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) March 1, 2024
When he’s healthy, there’s no question about his talent. In 54 major league games last season, he had 15 HRs, 22 total XBH and six stolen bases. All while sporting an impressive 11.7% barrel rate. If he stays healthy, he has “I can hit 35 dingers in my sleep” type of power. Let’s all hope that happens.
Also considered: Bailey Ober
New York Yankees
Surprise, surprise… another all-around performer gets his name on the X-factor list. This one is slightly different, though. Anthony Volpe had a 21/24 season in his rookie year. Arguably the most overlooked 20/20 season in recent memory.
Yes, the batting average was rough but that’s where the X-factor comes into play. In the minors, Volpe was known for making great contact, limiting strikeouts, stealing bases and getting on base. His strikeouts and walks moved in the wrong direction at the major league level. He may have started and ended his rookie year on cold streaks but he did have a stretch from June to August where he slashed .240/.315/.455 with 26 XBH and eight steals in 74 games. Should we get something similar to that from Volpe in 2024, a 25/25 or better season is well within reason.
Also considered: Anthony Rizzo, Juan Soto
New York Mets
The fireballer is back in town for the Mets and it couldn’t come fast enough. The man with one of the most iconic entrances in the history of baseball is fully recovered from his freak World Baseball Classic injury and is ready to get back to dominating hitters. So far this spring, Edwin Diaz has shown he hasn’t changed one bit. Granted, he’s only pitched two innings and faced the minimum six batters, but he’s struck out three, walked none and his slider has looked disgusting.
Much of his X-factor appeal comes from the fact he has the potential to be one of the best closers in baseball. With all the injuries happening to closers around the league, Diaz is primed to return to his dominant self and prove he’s worth an early-round selection. Especially if that strikeout rate returns to the insane 50.2% number he put up in 2022.
Also considered: Luis Severino
Oakland Athletics
Going closer back-to-back wasn’t intentional but there’s nobody on the Athletics roster who excites me more as a fantasy baseball X-factor than Mason Miller. The current top prospect may have just been up for a cup of tea at the majors last year before succumbing to injuries but it was a dominant one. His fastball touched 102 MPH and lived in the top of the zone and he buried his slider down and away to righties. Although his cutter got touched up a bit, he did a great job locating it.
Now fast forward to 2024. He’s been named as a potential closer for the Athletics who are already pretty void of major league talent. Especially in the bullpen. Miller is currently being drafted around pick 251. With all the injuries to closers, if Miller gets the nod, he has immediate upside. Even if Oakland isn’t very good, Miller can still find his way into 15 or so saves, which is more than enough to return value.
Also considered: Zack Gelof
Philadelphia Phillies
Bryce Harper went into 2023 coming off an elbow surgery that typically negates any good a player does at the plate. To be fair, it did in the beginning. Especially since Harper decided to be Superman and come back too early. He returned in May and hit just five home runs over his first 73 games. He had a sparkling .289 batting average but was essentially void of power.
The power kicked back in after that (sort of) and now we’re faced with a dilemma. Has Bryce Harper become a 20-25 home run guy who can hit .300 and play a good first base? Or does Bryce Harper still possess that 35+ home run ability and can flirt with .300? I think he has that power. If so, there’s reason to believe he can return first-round value.
Also considered: Bryson Stott, Zack Wheeler
Pittsburgh Pirates
By the end of last season, it felt like people had forgotten about Oneil Cruz. The 2022 rookie, who threw the hardest, hit the hardest and ran the fastest was leaped by Elly De La Cruz. The glimmer of awesome that was Oneil Cruz was a thing of the past.
Cue the “Hold up wait a minute, y’all thought I was finished” music…
This spring training, Cruz has returned with a vengeance. He’s not only made sure people remember the name, he’s done it with an exclamation point at the end. His seven home runs are the best in spring training. He’s scored 13 and driven in 14 in just 11 games. Plus, he’s hitting .355 with a strikeout rate of just over 20%. Oh ya, he’s also mashing. He’s already recorded five batted ball events of 110+ MPH. He’s flying up draft boards for good reason. He may be the biggest X-factor not currently going in the first round. If he stays healthy, a historic season may be in store.
Also considered: Henry Davis, Jared Jones
San Diego Padres
The fact we have three different rookies named Jackson aiming to set the baseball world on fire in 2024 is magical. Jackson Merrill is possibly the most interesting of the bunch. Chourio and Holliday both put up otherworldly numbers in the minors. Merrill flashed pop and speed last season, going 15/15 in 114 games. His hit tool is what’s most intriguing.
Merrill moving to a completely new position in center field is going to be a project in itself but that hit tool should help ease his transition. He struck out just 12% of the time last season. There are a few things that translate from minors to majors — plate discipline and contact are two of them. Should he stay the course, Merrill could have a ton of sneaky late-round upside.
Also considered: Xander Bogaerts, Luis Campusano
San Francisco Giants
He signed! Blake Snell signed! And now that he has, we can finally analyze the type of impact he can have on the… Giants?
The two-time Cy Young winner should perform nicely in the much more pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. We all hate the double-digit walk rate, I get it, but Snell was one of only two pitchers to have a 45+% whiff rate on three different pitches. His fantasy value slipped due to him not having a team. His real value was certainly in question with that walk rate. Snell landed with the perfect team to make him worthy of the X-factor title.
Also considered: Jorge Soler
Seattle Mariners
I wrote a Mariners sleepers & busts article for Pitcher List in January and listed Dominic Canzone in the bust section. However, I mentioned it was because he had been buried on the depth chart.
He seemed to take that personally.
Dominic Canzone, two-strike approach… pic.twitter.com/q7fNE6Tikv
— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) March 18, 2024
I know spring training stats aren’t supposed to matter but Canzone has used this spring to play his way into a starting left field nod for Seattle. In 30 at-bats this spring he’s hitting .300 with six XBH and nine RBIs. This doesn’t feel like a fluke, either. Last season he had a 12% barrel rate and an xSLG 70 points higher than his actual SLG. His 33.5% ideal plate appearance rate was one of the 10 highest. Canzone gives serious 2018 Mitch Haniger vibes. If he can live up to that, 2024 will be something special.
Also considered: Julio Rodriguez, Bryan Woo
St. Louis Cardinals
Wilson Contreras’ first year in St Louis was a roller coaster ride. He went from heir apparent to Yadier Molina, to immediately being not very good at baseball, to ending the year on an incredible hot streak. That hot streak is where the X-factor tag comes into play. Can he find a way to bottle that second-half magic and allow it to roll over into 2024?
From July, Contreras slashed .339/.440/.619 with 23 XBH and he even stole a base. His barrel rate (15.2%), hard-hit rate (48.8%) and line drive rate (23.4%) were career-high levels. Everything was going right for Contreras. He picked up for what Nolan Arenado lacked down the stretch. Contreras is currently projected to hit in the heart of the Cardinals lineup. Look for a top-five positional finish if he can capitalize.
Also considered: Jordan Walker
Tampa Bay Rays
This is the first and only player on this X-factor list not starting the season on an Opening Day roster. The reasoning behind that is odd. The Rays are likely playing with service time, regardless, the potential Junior Caminero has is real. There are few players in the minors — or majors for that matter — with the type of power Caminero possesses.
In 2023, Caminero played 124 games across three levels, hitting 32 home runs, 19 doubles and driving in 101. With a full season’s worth of games at the major league level, Caminero can hit 35+ home runs. There is really nobody on the Rays roster blocking him from achieving that level of playing time. He may not be able to realize his full potential right out of the gate but Caminero still has 500+ major league plate appearances on the way this season. He’s going to be the next big Rays breakout star.
Also considered: Ryan Pepiot
Texas Rangers
There aren’t many baseball names hotter than Wyatt Langford at the moment. He went from second overall pick to blazing through the minors in just a couple of months. Langford is the true definition of a five-tool player. He’s done everything he can to prove that this spring training.
Enter the same song and dance about spring training not supposed to matter here, but, sometimes a player can perform so well you might take extra notice. Five big-time home runs, a .378 batting average and a 1.198 OPS will do that. Even with fellow Rookie of the Year hopeful Evan Carter on the roster, Langford has found ways to outshine the rest of his World Series champion teammates. He’s flying up draft boards currently. by this time next year, we could be talking about him as a potential first-round pick.
Also considered: Corey Seager
Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, DH)
Are you guys ready to play a fun game of “Which Vladdy will we get this season?”. It seems to be a running theme these last few seasons. While we all want Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to return to his former 48-home run self, he’s been on a bit of a free fall in some key stats.
| AVG | OPS | HR | Hard-Hit% | |
| 2021 | .311 | 1.002 | 48 | 55.2% |
| 2022 | .274 | .818 | 32 | 50.4% |
| 2023 | .264 | .788 | 26 | 49.2% |
He’s seen a pretty drastic decrease in a majority of his power numbers since that amazing 48-home run season. Despite that, Guerrero will still be hitting in the heart of a playoff-contending lineup. He’s still hitting the ball hard and will find some level of success. Teammates Bo Bichette and George Springer are great but the true X-factor on that team is Guerrero. If he can improve even slightly in 2024, he starts to flirt with first-round-worthy production.
Also considered: Chris Bassitt
Washington Nationals
A true breakout player in 2023, CJ Abrams went from a vastly underachieving top prospect to an elite shortstop. By season’s end, Abrams was one of only four players with 15+ home runs and 40+ stolen bases. The other three were Ronald Acuna Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Bobby Witt Jr. — three perennial MVP candidates.
There were certain improvements Abrams had to make to get to that point. Raising his abysmal 1.7% walk rate from the year prior was a good first step. With his elite speed, getting on base more was crucial. He also tripled his barrel rate, raised his hard hit rate by 5% and turned a good chunk of his groundballs into line drives and flyballs. We have yet to see if he can replicate or build off last season. With the potential he flashed, it’s exciting to think of just how good he can be this season.
Also considered: Joey Meneses, Josiah Gray
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