Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets: Jonah Heim, Brandon Nimmo, Christian Walker (2024)

It’s key to look at fantasy baseball draft projections to get a deeper sense of player values as you put together your draft strategy. Luckily, according to Zeile Consensus Projections and stats from recent seasons, many good players who slip away have alternatives who can perform at a similar level with less draft cost according to their average draft positions (ADP).

2024 Batter Comparisons at Different ADP

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR): ADP 27 / Christian Walker (1B – ARI): ADP 77

Zeile Projections	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	H	BB	SO	SLG	OPS
Vladimir Guerrero	662	582	92	32	100	6	.284	.358	165	67	99	.508	.866
Christian Walker	642	566	82	28	93	6	.254	.328	144	62	129	.462	.790

Perhaps the cover of MLB The Show 24 is not the best pick in fantasy. Guerrero is certainly a top player, but Zeile predicts Christian Walker to have a very close season. Walker, who turns 33 on Opening Day, has been underrated throughout his career. However, the first baseman is finally getting respect on draft radars after back-to-back seasons of 30-plus homers and headed into a contract year.

It is hard to say no to Guerrero. The Dominican slugger had a jaw-dropping 2021 season when he came in second in MVP voting after a performance akin to his Hall-of-Fame father. Disappointingly, if one looks at his stat pages, that 2021 season is starting to look like an outlier instead of a norm. Guerrero led the league in 2021 with a 167 OPS+ but has had an average 118 OPS+ in the other four years of his career. This is a very impressive number, yet it is not on par with the MVP form managers expect from Guerrero every year.

In a vacuum, Guerrero is the better player. This is not a vacuum, though, and drafting Walker could allow a team to take a slight hit in production in return for an overall better roster.

Randy Arozarena (OF – TB): ADP 41 / Brandon Nimmo (OF – NYM): 182 ADP

Zeile Projections	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	H	BB	SO	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	644	560	89	24	82	26	.260	.337	146	65	156	.448	.785
Brandon Nimmo	645	554	89	19	67	5	.267	.353	148	74	129	.439	.793

Arozarena’s balanced talent makes him one of the best outfielders and earns him this early draft position. The Rays star is especially valuable in category leagues due to his three-season long 20-20 streak and overall ability to contribute to many categories.

Nimmo is also one of the best outfielders in the game. The Mets leadoff hitter is one of the most underrated bats in fantasy. Drafters should take advantage. The Zeile Projections show the true extent of Nimmo’s quiet talent – he has Arozarena beat in quite a few categories despite going almost 150 picks later in the draft. Projections are just projections, but Nimmo has consistently put together good seasons when healthy. Although Arozarena possesses a more well-rounded skill set, Nimmo can provide similar value much later in the draft.

J.T. Realmuto (C – PHI): ADP 73 / Jonah Heim (C – TEX): ADP 185

Zeile Projections	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	H	BB	SO	SLG	OPS
J.T. Realmuto	514	462	66	19	67	15	.256	.312	118	38	125	.446	.758
Jonah Heim	495	449	56	18	64	2	.246	.307	110	40	95	.422	.730

Realmuto is currently the second-highest catcher in ADP, trailing only Adley Rutschman. The 33-year-old has proven that he is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, but fantasy managers must discern if drafting him this early is a good decision. Yes, he is projected to post great stats as a catcher, but there are decent options far deeper into the draft class. The difference in projected performance between Realmuto and Jonah Heim is much smaller than the large gap in ADP suggests.

Heim had a 2023 breakout campaign that recognized him as an All-Star. The Rangers backstop is very enticing at this position, but if a manager is unsure that he is legitimate then there are many other catchers in this range, such as Francisco Alvarez, Mitch Garver and Keibert Ruiz. Realmuto is also known for his speed, a part of his game that will deteriorate as he ages.