Drafting a winning fantasy baseball team is part art, part science, and part hoping your first-round pick doesn’t spend half the season on the injured list. Here is the strategy I’m employing for my 12-team, 5×5 drafts.

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Kelly Kirby’s Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy & Targets

Rounds 1 – 4

If I have the first pick, it’s Ronald Acuna Jr. Even with some concern about his knee injury, the talent and upside are too great to ignore. However, with a 91.7 percent chance of having a different pick, here is how I’m breaking down the first four rounds:

Rounds 1 & 2:

• My first pick needs to be a player who contributes across the board and is projected to exceed 600 plate appearances.
  • ? Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Freddie Freeman
• The current ADP has eight outfielders going in the first 12 picks, whereas the second round has only one (Yordan Alvarez). If my league has five outfielders, I want to leave with one between these two rounds. If it only has three, I’m okay waiting.
• In the second, I’m going after a third baseman if one of these players is available. I want a high-floor guy, and those three have proven to be steady options.
  • ? Jose Ramirez, Austin Riley, Rafael Devers.

Rounds 3 & 4:

• The third round brings a few outfield options to grab if I didn’t take one already and who might contribute in all five categories.
  • ? Michael Harris II.
• In the fourth, I’m looking at pitching, particularly ? Pablo Lopez or ?George Kirby, if they are available.
  • ? I am avoiding Zac Gallen (too many innings in 2023) and Tyler Glasnow (injury risk is too high).
• If there is a run on pitching prior to my pick, I am good with either?Randy Arozarena or ? Adolis Garcia.

Rounds 5 – 8

Rounds 5 & 6:

• If I haven’t taken a pitcher yet, I am definitely looking for one now.
  • ? Framber Valdez, Freddy Peralta, Logan Gilbert
• If I do have one, I am okay taking a closer like Jhoan Duran.
  • ? Emmanuel Clase is on my “avoid” list this year.
• Overall, I would like to have two pitchers in my first six picks.

Rounds 7 & 8:

• The seventh round is my favorite, weirdly enough. In previous years, I’ve thought of rounds 7-10 as a “dead zone,” but this year, I feel like there are some sneaky good fantasy players to be had between picks 84-108.
  • My favorite mid-round guy is ? 1B Triston Casas. Saying that I will probably reach for him at least once isn’t as much of a prediction as it is a guarantee.
• I’m not hellbent on getting a first baseman in this area, but if there is a run on them, I will grab one of these two as I feel like they are the last of the position before a dropoff.
  • ? Yanier Diaz or Spencer Torkelson
• Other players in this range that I like
  • ? Joe Ryan, Justin Steele, Cole Ragans, Tanner Bibee, Evan Carter, Seiya Suzuki
• Players I am avoiding
  • ? Xander Bogaerts, Dylan Cease, Spencer Steer, George Springer

Rounds 9 – 14

Rounds 9 & 10:

• Hopefully, there is an available closer from this group. I like them in this order.
  • ? Andres Munoz, Paul Sewald, Pete Fairbanks, Ryan Helsley.
• ? Dansby Swanson is a solid fantasy player insofar as he is on the field and will get nearly 600 at-bats, which is difficult to find past this point in the draft. He’s my target in the 10th.

Rounds 11 & 12:

• And now we’ve arrived at this year’s dead zone. I hate these two rounds.
• The “what-does-he-have-left” veteran pitchers
  • ❓ Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Shane Bieber
• The “elite-in-only-one-category guys”
  • 1️⃣ Luis Arraez, Esteury Ruiz
• The “fine-I’ll-take-him-but-I’m-not-happy-about-it” outfielders
  • ? Ian Happ, Masataka Yoshida
• If it’s a five-outfielder league, I’d take a boring veteran who can protect my batting average and provide some help with runs in the 75 range.
• If it’s not, I’m okay pairing the two one-category guys together.
• I also love ? Cal Raleigh’s power at catcher, so I am willing to draft him and Arraez (batting average) together.
  • He is likely to be overdrafted, so I’m not counting on him still being around.

Rounds 13 & 14:

• Time to focus on pitching. I’d like to come out of these two rounds with another closer and SP.
  • ? Bailey Ober is a name that many analysts are on as a sleeper, and I agree with them.
  • ? I also like Michael King’s potential in San Diego.
• Reliever-wise, I’m eyeballing ?Adbert Alzolay.
• I have also grown to believe in redemption for ?Carlos Rodon and/or ? Cristian Javier (but I’m not drafting both).

Rounds 15 – 25

Rounds 15-25:

• Come round 15, and I am prepared to alternate between “safe floor veterans” and “high upside youngsters.”
• One of my most important fantasy philosophies is that there is no shame in drafting “safe” veterans. It may not be sexy, but most of the time, those who win have a team with more of those than young, exciting rookies.
• Don’t draft two catchers in single-catcher leagues unless one of them has dual eligibility.
• High-end closer handcuffs who will boost your ratios are strong picks, especially past Round 20.
• If two players are equal and one is eligible at multiple positions, he gets the nod.

Whatever your strategy, good luck with all of your drafts!

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