If you’ve ever played Texas hold’em you know pocket aces is the most fortunate hand you can be dealt. By starting the game with two aces, you start the game with an advantage over your opponents. It’s important to note everything can change once more cards are added to the game via the flop.
In fantasy baseball, pocket aces is the strategy that involves getting two ace pitchers in the first few rounds. The idea behind the strategy is that you’ve covered all of the pitching categories except saves. The pitchers you take in the first few rounds should offer you low ratios, high strikeouts and plenty of volume to make the ratios more effective.
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Just like the flop can change the outcome of pocket aces in poker, injuries and luck have that same effect in fantasy baseball. Don’t bank on victory because you went pocket aces; just know it’s possible.
Pocket Aces Strategy
Is it a Viable Strategy?
Pocket aces is losing popularity as a strategy. Using average draft position (ADP) data demonstrates this change. This season, there are currently six pitchers with a top-36 ADP. In 2022 and 2023, nine pitchers had top 36 ADPs. For the 2021 season, that number was 13. FantasyPros’ ADP data goes back to 2015. Six pitchers in the top 36 would be the fewest of any of those years.
Part of the decline in the pocket aces strategy is that the hit rate hasn’t been what drafters were hoping for. Of those nine pitchers with top-36 ADPs last season, only three are going in that range again this season. Those three pitchers, Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes now are the top three in ADP for 2024. Some of the pitchers who went within the top 36 last season included Sandy Alcantara, Jacob deGrom and Shane McClanahan, who this season are completely undraftable with their injuries. Therein lies the risk with pocket aces.
But a good way to win in fantasy sports is to zig when everyone else zags. In 2022, if you had planned on going pocket aces with the sixth pick in a 15-team league, based on ADP, you would have been able to select Gerrit Cole, who was going as the SP1 that season. But, based on ADP, you would have only been able to get the SP7 as your second ace. This year, you could have the SP1 and the SP4 from that same position.
Thinking of it in that context, it still can be a viable strategy. If you went with pocket aces last season, it is possible you could have had both Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider. That would have meant you started your draft with 35 wins, 503 strikeouts, a 3.20 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over almost 400 innings — more than viable but it requires selecting the correct pitchers.
Pocket Ace Targets
Corbin Burnes (SP – BAL)
For this article, the two pitchers with first-round ADPs are going to be excluded as targets. If you have the option to select either Spencer Strider or Gerrit Cole based on your draft slot, they are likely to return that value. They are each fine building blocks for a pocket aces strategy.
The third pitcher off the board, according to ADP, is Corbin Burnes. He finds himself pitching in the American League for the first time in his career as he was traded to the Baltimore Orioles during the offseason. Even coming off of a down season, Burnes still makes a lot of sense as a pitcher to target for your pocket aces strategy.
When the words “down season” are used, it usually doesn’t involve a 3.39 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and 200 strikeouts. But that is the standard Burnes has established for himself. The 3.39 ERA was his worst since 2019. The 200 strikeouts were his lowest total in the last three seasons. His 1.06 WHIP led the National League last season but it was also his worst WHIP since 2019.
When those statistics entail a down season, you understand why Burnes is a good choice as a pocket ace. While there were some signs of decline last season, it feels more likely those were an aberration rather than the start of the trend. Burnes is bankable for innings, strikeouts and good ratios. That’s an ace you want on your team.
Pablo Lopez (SP – MIN)
Earlier in his career, there were consistent concerns about Pablo Lopez’s shoulder. He spent time on the injured list in 2018, 2019 and 2021 with shoulder injuries. Then, something changed in 2022. He made 32 starts with the Marlins, setting a new career-high with 180 innings pitched. The question going into last year was how would his shoulder hold up in his first season with the Minnesota Twins.
It held up just fine. He started another 32 games and set another new career-high with 194 innings pitched. The new innings pitched helped him to set career-best marks in wins and strikeouts. The ERA and WHIP were plenty usable at 3.66 and 1.15, respectively.
With back-to-back seasons of 32 starts, it appears the previous shoulder concerns are no longer an issue. of The Statcast data from last season suggest another level of dominance is attainable for Lopez. His pure stuff allows him to have a 34.3% chase percentage, which is elite. That many strikeouts may mean an even lower ERA in 2024.
With an ADP of 38, Lopez is not one of the six pitchers with a top-36 ADP. He should be in that range, though. His ADP is pulled down a bit by Yahoo. On their website, you can get a fantastic deal on him at pick 46. He has everything you want in a pocket ace — volumes, strikeouts and positive ratios.
Pocket Ace Avoids
Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR)
If you are taking the pocket aces approach, your pitcher must provide enough innings for the ratios to be truly beneficial. That has typically not been an issue with Kevin Gausman. He has made over 30 starts in the past three seasons with at least 174 innings in each season. That streak may be coming to an end, though.
Earlier in March, there was a report that Gausman was dealing with shoulder fatigue. He has yet to pitch in any official spring training capacity. The Blue Jays had him have an MRI of his shoulder which showed no structural damage. While that is encouraging news, it was also believed to be serious enough that they asked him to have an MRI in the first place.
If everything is alright with his health, Gausman meets all the qualifications to be a pocket ace. He offers good ratios with volume and plenty of strikeouts to add additional value. But there is already a shoulder injury concern. It was about this time last season when we first heard about Brandon Woodruff needing to go on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. He would pitch some last season but now he is going to miss all of this season. Hopefully, that never happens with Gausman, but there is enough of a concern to fade him in the early rounds when many other stud pitchers are available.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP – LAD)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been arguably the most dominant pitcher on the planet for the past three seasons. His worst ERA during the past three seasons in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) organization is 1.68. This season, he’ll be playing in MLB for the Los Angeles Dodgers. But there are reasons to think he is not going to be a pocket ace.
In the NPB, teams typically use six-man rotations. While Yamamoto accumulated at least 170 innings in the last three seasons, it’s possible that won’t happen with the Dodgers. They have plenty of starting pitcher options. They are going to want their best options available for their likely playoff run. That is the time when we are more likely to see Yamamoto reach 170 innings, which won’t help your fantasy teams.
Another facet of the pocket aces strategy is knowing what you are getting. While it’s likely Yamamoto will come to America and be a fine pitcher immediately, there is the possibility of an adjustment period. The ball is different in the NPB. It will be a longer schedule than he is used to with much more travel. There are enough questions surrounding his situation to go elsewhere when looking for your second pocket ace.
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