An old adage is that you can’t win your draft in the first few rounds but you can lose it. The earliest rounds are typically where you want reliability from your selections. As the draft progresses, you begin to target more upside. It’s about finding the balance between reliability versus upside that best fits your team.
By the last few rounds of your draft, reliability among players is nearly nonexistent. All the players in that range have question marks or they would be going earlier in the draft. It’s a matter of determining which question marks you think have answers that can provide big returns.
Big returns are what we are looking for when targeting lottery tickets. In this article, we will focus on players selected outside the top 300 in FantasyPros’ consensus average draft position (ADP). No offense to players such as Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson or Jeff McNeil, who all have ADPs in that range, but they are not lottery ticket material. We know what they offer and it isn’t the big returns we’re hoping for late. Read on to find the late targets we’re looking for.
Lottery Tickets to Target
Erick Fedde (SP – CWS)
Wait. Erick Fedde has a 5.41 career ERA over 454.1 innings. Isn’t he the type of pitcher who is not lottery ticket material? He was very much trending that way in his Washington Nationals days. Then, he went to the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) last season to play baseball and learned a new pitch in the sweeper. It helped him bring home the league’s Rookie of the Year and KBO MVP awards. His one season in Asia was a statistically dominant one — 209 strikeouts to only 35 walks over 180 innings with a 2.00 ERA and 20 wins.
After one year in Asia, Fedde is back in the majors with the Chicago White Sox. With the trade of Dylan Cease to the Padres, Fedde is the presumed ace of this team and will pitch as many innings as possible. Fedde is a late lottery ticket to select to see if the sweeper works as well in MLB as it did in Korea.
Reynaldo Lopez (SP, RP – ATL)
Reynaldo Lopez established himself as one of the best relief pitchers in baseball in the past couple of seasons. When he signed with the Atlanta Braves this offseason it was initially believed to be as a setup man for closer Raisel Iglesias. Instead, it was announced he’d compete for a starting rotation spot. He’s competed with both Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver in spring training.
Smith-Shawver is likely to start the season in the minor leagues. Elder has pitched poorly this spring with an ERA over eight. Conversely, Lopez has been fantastic with a 1.54 ERA. All indications are Lopez has secured the fifth-starter role. With the Atlanta offense backing him, wins should be abundant. He should put up a usable ERA and WHIP and record enough strikeouts for fantasy value.
Gavin Stone (SP – LAD)
With both Walker Buehler and Emmet Sheehan expected to start the season on the injured list, there is an opening in the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation. With his dominant spring training, Gavin Stone is the most likely option to fill that void. So far in spring training he is 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA, a 0.62 WHIP and nine strikeouts over nine innings. He is an entirely different pitcher than the one who gave up 31 earned runs in 31 big league innings last season.
If we had never seen those 31 major league innings, there would be much more enthusiasm for him going into this season. Over the last two minor league seasons, he has pitched 222 innings. He posted a 2.96 ERA and 288 strikeouts in those innings. Going into last season, Stone was thought of similarly to Bobby Miller. Could we be drafting Stone in the same range as Miller next season? It’s worth taking him with a late selection to find out.
Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
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- Justin Mason’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- KC Bubba’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Blake Meyer’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Mason’s High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy (Premium)
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