Reaching typically isn’t ideal in fantasy baseball drafts. The wisdom of the crowd has value, and with drafters sharper than ever, average draft position (ADP) data is tighter. Nevertheless, there are exceptions to the rule. Two pitchers in the American League Central are exciting options worthy of popping in advance of their ADPs. The first is a burgeoning ace, and the second might be turning back the clock after getting into the lab during the offseason.
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- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
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- Fantasy Baseball Projections
Pitchers to Reach For
Cole Ragans (SP/RP – KC) | 94.0 ADP
Cole Ragans didn’t demonstrate much to get excited about when he was in the Rangers organization. However, the light went on immediately after the Royals got their hands on him last year. According to FanGraphs, in 12 starts spanning 71.2 innings for the Royals, Ragans had a 2.64 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.4 BB%, 31.1 K% and 29.1 CSW%.
The lefty also had rock-solid pitch data in Kansas City, tallying a 101 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 104 Pitching+. Furthermore, his slider is lethal. It had a 123 Stuff+ modeling grade with the Royals and a 48.4 O-Swing% and 25.8 SwStr% for the entire 2023 season. Thankfully, Ragans’ slider isn’t his only weapon. He also had an 11.9 SwStr% for his four-seam fastball and an 18.8 SwStr% for his changeup in 2023.
Ragans’ surface stats and underlying data were elite for the Royals. Ragans might not face a significant innings cap after pitching 124.1 innings in 2023 and 134.2 in 2022. As a result, the Zeile consensus projections project him to be the 32nd-ranked pitcher this season, slightly better than his ADP as the 37th pitcher off the board. The projections support reaching a bit for Ragans, whose ceiling outcome exceeds them.
Shane Bieber (SP – CLE) | 127.2 ADP
Shane Bieber had an adequate 3.80 ERA in 21 starts totaling 128.0 innings last season. However, his 4.83 xERA, 3.96 xFIP and 4.29 SIERA were less flattering. The veteran righty also had a career-low 20.1 K%.
Bieber used his curve a career-low 13.8% of the time last season after using it 17.9% of the time in 2022. Even his 2022 mark was a departure from Bieber’s usage when he was at his best. In addition, Bieber’s fastball has lacked the oomph it had at the height of his powers. Since 2022, his fastball has averaged only 91.3 mph. Additionally, it had a maximum velocity of 94.4 mph in 2022 and 93.5 in 2023.
Bieber was at Driveline in the offseason, working to recapture his heater and his dominant curve. The work paid off handsomely.
Fortunately, Bieber’s increased velocity has carried over to the bump in spring training.
Moreover, Bieber was lights out in his most recent spring training start.
Bieber allowed only one run on two hits, two walks and eight strikeouts in 5.2 innings. He can significantly outperform his ADP if his velocity sticks in the regular season, and he ramps up his curve usage. When Bieber had an average fastball velocity of 92.8 mph and used his curve 31.2% of the time in 2021, he had a 3.17 ERA, 3.73 xERA, 2.91 xFIP, 3.21 SIERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.1 BB%, 33.1 K% and 33.5 CSW%. Bieber is worth rolling the dice on, even 10 to 12 picks ahead of his ADP.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.