Fantasy Baseball Draft Outlook: Tarik Skubal, Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill, CJ Abrams (2024)

While this isn’t your typical “breakouts” article, it’s meant to serve the same purpose. Fantasy X-Factors are players who will be difference makers for both their team and your fantasy baseball team. Sometimes that player may be a second-rounder looking to take their game to the next level. Other times it could be an 18th-rounder with the potential to end up as a top-five talent at the position.

With that in mind, let’s cut the intro short and get straight into the list. Here are all of our fantasy baseball draft X-Factors. Below we dive into a few notable names from the list.

Fantasy Baseball X-Factors

CJ Abrams (SS)

A true breakout player in 2023, CJ Abrams went from a vastly underachieving top prospect to an elite shortstop. By season’s end, Abrams was one of only four players with 15+ home runs and 40+ stolen bases. The other three were Ronald Acuna Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Bobby Witt Jr. — three perennial MVP candidates.

There were certain improvements Abrams had to make to get to that point. Raising his abysmal 1.7% walk rate from the year prior was a good first step. With his elite speed, getting on base more was crucial. He also tripled his barrel rate, raised his hard hit rate by 5% and turned a good chunk of his groundballs into line drives and flyballs. We have yet to see if he can replicate or build off last season. With the potential he flashed, it’s exciting to think of just how good he can be this season.

Jackson Merrill (SS, OF)

The fact we have three different rookies named Jackson aiming to set the baseball world on fire in 2024 is magical. Jackson Merrill is possibly the most interesting of the bunch. Chourio and Holliday both put up otherworldly numbers in the minors. Merrill flashed pop and speed last season, going 15/15 in 114 games. His hit tool is what’s most intriguing.

Merrill moving to a completely new position in center field is going to be a project in itself but that hit tool should help ease his transition. He struck out just 12% of the time last season. There are a few things that translate from minors to majors — plate discipline and contact are two of them. Should he stay the course, Merrill could have a ton of sneaky late-round upside.

Jackson Chourio (OF)

Admittedly, I don’t like a ton of Brewers this season, but I love Jackson Chourio as an X-factor. In a league filled with youngsters who excel in all five tools, Chourio seemingly fits the bill as the next man up. Expect to quickly see his name amongst the likes of Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr, Corbin Carroll and Elly De La Cruz.

He amassed 51 XBH and 44 stolen bases across 128 minor league games in 2023. He did this while maintaining a strikeout rate below 20% and a 57% hard-hit rate in his short stint in Triple-A. Chourio is the real deal and the definition of an X-factor.

Tarik Skubal (SP)

Tarik Skubal is one of the most exciting “what if?” players this season. After returning from injury, Skubal put together a run of 15 games down the stretch that was almost too good to believe. His 2.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP proved he has it in him to be dominant for more than just a game or two. Pair that with his 16.6% swinging strike rate (98th percentile), 33% CSW (99th), 30.9% ICR (99th percentile) and 28.4% K-BB rate and you get a pitcher that strikes hitters out like Spencer Strider while painting the zone like George Kirby.

Tarik Skubal, Filthy 3 elevated Changeup K Sequence…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/qrMm80pHEJ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 16, 2024

This spring, Skubal has had his fastball flirting with 98 MPH and his location has been elite. If he can continue this dominance into the season (and stay healthy), Skubal ends the season as a top-10 pitcher. If it comes crashing down, he becomes someone who cost you a crucial early-round pick.