Luck, planning, and skill typically all play equal roles in determining who wins your league’s fantasy baseball championship. In fantasy sports, the line between victory and defeat can be thin. But this is especially so in baseball—a game rife with plenty of variables, randomness, and frequent overly lucky or unlucky performances. This is why targeting as many heavily undervalued players as possible is necessary, especially as you head deeper into your draft.
The more you acquire, the higher your odds of having enough difference-makers that will push your team to the title. To aid you in your championship journey, we’ve summoned our featured analysts to share their insight on which undervalued players have high-end, league-winning potential.
- Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator
- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
Fantasy Baseball League-Winners for 2024
Q. What one hitter do you believe will be this year’s league winner (i.e. a player drafted late who delivers top production, such as Cody Bellinger in 2023)
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B – CIN )
“Christian Encarnacion-Strand has 30+ home run upside, and he should do with a solid average and counting stats. He was already on my radar because of his power potential, but what was once a deep Reds lineup with playing time concerns has now been decimated to the point that they traded for Santiago Espinal for infield depth and are projected to start Mike Ford and Will Benson in their Opening Day lineup. I think CES plays his way toward the top of this lineup and finishes the year with something in the area of 30 home runs, 90 RBI, 70 runs scored, and a batting average north of .270 (he regularly batted above .300 in the minors and batted .270 in 63 games with the Reds last season). Oh, and you can get him outside of the Top 125 right now. ”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
J.D. Martinez (DH – FA )
“J.D. Martinez has an ADP outside the top 200 despite clubbing 33 home runs last year with 103 RBI and a .271 batting average. Drafters are terrified that Martinez remained unsigned with the regular season baring down, but do we really think no one is going to come calling? Age is a concern for some drafters, too. Martinez is 36. I get it, but there’s little evidence that Martinez is slowing down. His average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate were 98th percentile last year. Nelson Cruz kept mashing baseballs in his late 30s and into his 40s, so why can’t a professional hitter like Martinez? The veteran slugger is a worthy end-of-draft target.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Tyler O’Neill (OF – BOS )
“Tyler O’Neill is being drafted at 227, and if he stays healthy, I think he can be a league winner. At 28 years old, he has had two straight truncated seasons, getting only 649 plate appearances. The power is there, and Fenway Park plays well to right-handed hitters. Fantasy managers are looking at 25 to 30 home runs along with double-digit steals in the 18th or 19th round, similar to Bellinger’s production in 2023. That seems like a formula to swing a league championship your way. ”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Jackson Holliday (2B,SS – BAL )
“Holliday looks primed to take over the second base gig in Baltimore (if not also playing shortstop). His solid spring of hitting over .300, while stealing a few bags and hitting a few home runs shows off a taste of what makes him great. I believe he could give off Bobby Witt Jr.rookie year vibes stealing over 30, while hitting 12-18 home runs. Unlike Witt, or his other rookie counterparts, his cost is low at a consensus ADP around 160.”
– Christopher Welsh (FantasyPros)
Q. What one pitcher do you believe will be this year’s league winner (i.e. a player drafted late who delivers top production, such as Kyle Bradish in 2023)?
Aaron Civale (SP – TB )
“I already wrote up Cristian Javier a few weeks ago and talked about him on the new weekly FantasyPros fantasy baseball podcast with Ryan Wormeli, so I’ll go with Aaron Civale. Civale was already a solid pitcher with the Cleveland Guardians, and he has the potential to be a great pitcher with the Tampa Bay Rays. After his midseason trade to the Rays in 2023, his strikeout rate (K/9) jumped from 6.78 to 11.51. He posted a 5.36 ERA with Tampa, but that came with a 3.63 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, and 3.35 SIERA. This year, he’ll have a full offseason and spring training with the Rays and offers incredibly intriguing upside for a pitcher currently being drafted outside of the Top 200 overall. ”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Hunter Brown (SP – HOU )
“Hunter Brown’s 5.09 ERA in 2023 is scaring away would-be investors, but it shouldn’t. He’s an exciting young power pitcher who racks up strikeouts and induces groundballs at a high rate. An unfortunate .330 BABIP stung Brown last year, so he’s due for some regression in that area. Brown is going to get ample run support from the Astros, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win 15+ games this year with a much-improved ERA.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Triston McKenzie (SP – CLE )
“In 2022, I was really high on Triston McKenzie, and he delivered a 2.96 ERA with a walk rate of 5.9 percent. After being injured and shut down in 2023, I am looking for him to return to that form this season. With a consensus ADP of 209, McKenzie offers a projected K% of over 24 and a BB% of around 6.5, which are pretty solid numbers for a guy you can nab in the 17th round of drafts. If he returns to his 2022 form, he could be a league winner for fantasy managers and vastly outperform his ADP.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Cole Ragans (SP,RP – KC )
“The back half of last season, we got the taste of what an elite Cole Ragans could look like. So far in spring, we’ve seen his fastball velo up, strikeout numbers stay 10+ per nine, and control on point. The type of pitcher Ragans has been showing off can easily be a top-10 fantasy pitcher. His cost is still just inside the top 100, and as starting pitcher 29. The price could line him up as your SP2 or SP3 with the upside of being an absolute ace.”
– Christopher Welsh (FantasyPros)
Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
- The Welsh’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Joe Pisapia’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Justin Mason’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- KC Bubba’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Blake Meyer’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Mason’s High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy (Premium)
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