Fantasy Baseball Draft Busts: Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Luis Robert Jr. (2024)

Spring Training is in full swing, marking the true start of fantasy baseball draft season. Each new season brings the hope of a title to every team, the fans, and fantasy baseball managers. However, a gigantic step in achieving that fantasy championship is nailing the draft, and your chances of doing so increase when you find the undervalued players and avoid the ones who are most likely to bust.

Our featured analysts are back today to share who they’ve identified as 2024’s busts. Read on to help you in your upcoming drafts. And here are all of our Fantasy Baseball Draft Expert Sleepers & Busts.

2024 Fantasy Baseball Busts

Cody Bellinger (1B, OF – CHC)

“I believe that Cody Bellinger is a candidate to be a significant bust this fantasy season. Expected statistics are to be taken with a grain of salt; however, it’s certainly worth noting that, per BaseballSavant, Bellinger was 8th worst in the MLB last season in BA/xBA difference and 5th last in both SLG/xSLG and wOBA/xwOBA. Along with this, Bellinger’s overall quality in contact (Exit velocity and Barrel rate) has remained around the 20th percentile, and his Hard Hit rate has hovered around the 10th percentile. If his numbers even out with his expected statistics and he fails to notably improve his contact metrics, he will be a fall-back candidate. ”
– Rex Rutchik (Left Turns)

Blake Snell (SP – FA)

“Whenever Blake Snell signs with a team, he’ll get a bump in ADP, and many will expect a repeat of his Cy Young performance from last year. That assumes he will be in regular-season form quickly despite getting no work in spring training. It also assumes that he will land in a spot where he can pitch in a home park as favorable as San Diego or Tampa Bay. Snell is also notoriously volatile due to a career 10.9% walk rate that ballooned to 13.3% last year. There are far more factors pointing to a down season than a repeat of 2023, and I’m not willing to pay a top-100 draft price betting on the latter.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)

Luis Robert Jr. (OF – CWS)

“Luis Robert Jr. is going to be this year’s biggest bust. He broke out last year with 38 homers and 20 steals with 170 combined runs and RBI, but his underlying numbers weren’t that far off from his 2022 season, where he finished with 12 HR and 11 SB in 98 games. His Max EV, Avg EV, K%, and HardHit% were all down a bit in ’23 compared to ’22, and his BB% was in the bottom seven percentile. The team around him doesn’t provide much protection, and pitchers can expose the holes in his swing. His career-high was only 98 games played before 145 last year, and he still carries plenty of injury risk. Even if he doesn’t miss time due to injury, there should be some regression.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)