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Mock drafting is not a perfect science, especially mock drafting rookie picks pre-NFL Draft. I use multiple sources for mock drafts to get a feel for how the community views different players. I use the FantasyPros’ Draft Wizard a lot this time of year as I feel they offer the best fully automated draft AI compared to other sites and apps.
- 2024 NFL Mock Drafts
- Expert Consensus 2024 NFL Mock Draft
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles
I recently did a mock draft from the nine-spot using the Draft Wizard. I loved these results for a three-round, 1QB, non-TE-Premium rookie draft. You can check out the breakdown of each of my picks below…
Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
Round 1
1.09: Keon Coleman (WR – Florida State)
You’re not going to find anyone higher on Keon Coleman than me. I’ve seen Coleman fall into the second round, which is way too late. I’ve heard all the pundits saying he isn’t fast enough, he has issues with drops and that he should excel at contested catches. The numbers say otherwise.
First off, he is fast enough. He won’t be asked to take the top off the defense in the NFL, that’s not the role he will be used for. What he will be used for is to be a huge target in the middle of the field and a red-zone threat. At 6-foot-3, 213 pounds and very physical, he will fill that role in a way most guys in this class can’t.
Second, his drops are overblown. Drops are a very subjective stat because, depending on where you look, he has as many as seven drops and as few as three. One of the X accounts I follow, Matt Miller, posted that he was credited with only four, a 4.5% drop rate.
Keon Coleman is attributed with 4 drops via @TruMediaSports. Just a 4.5% drop rate. https://t.co/pdfWBrc5hB
– Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) December 6, 2023
Finally, his contested catch rate was not great in 2023 at 33%. However, look at 2022 and how he had one of the top rates in college football at 63%. Did he forget how to catch 50/50 balls in 2023 or did some of it just come down to being a little unlucky? There’s a reason they are called 50/50 balls. Keon Coleman probably makes 50/50 more like 60/40, but even then, a couple of unlucky balls could easily drop his score. It doesn’t mean that over a larger sample size, he couldn’t get back to that 60+ percentage.
That was a long-winded way to say I was extremely happy to take Coleman here at the 1.09 and it’s exactly where he should fall. The only player that went ahead of Coleman who was too high is Troy Franklin, but I know that is not the consensus.
Round 2
2.09: Braelon Allen (RB – Wisconsin)
The second round in 2024 will be where the running backs live, and that was the case in this draft as six of the 12 picks in the second round were running backs. Currently ranked as my RB5, I was ecstatic to get Braelon Allen in the late second round. He had a bit of a rough combine, which lowered his stock, but Allen is still regarded as one of the better running backs in this class.
The biggest knock on him for fantasy purposes is that he is not a pass-catcher. He also didn’t do himself any favors in the gauntlet drill at the combine by dropping several balls. However, if he can land on a team that uses a committee and gives him the quintessential first- and second-down role, he could be a 1,000-yard running back with 10-12 TDs every year. I will take that in the late second.
Round 3
3.09 Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE – Texas)
The value of this pick is insane. I know Ja’Tavion Sanders did not have the best combine and the mock draft format I used wasn’t TE-Premium but to get the consensus TE2 in the late third round is huge. At 6-foot-4, 245 pounds, he can be a dynamic receiving option for whoever drafts him. His 40 time is slower than we had hoped but when I watched the film he has no trouble separating from defenders due to his plus-level route-running ability.
One important thing in the NFL for a receiving tight end to excel is catching balls in traffic — Sanders is elite when it comes to maintaining his focus on the ball in very congested situations. More often than not, he is the one with the ball in his hands after the smoke clears.
The only downside to his game is that he is not a great blocker and will likely be taken off the field in running situations. At his size, though, it is something he can get better at with proper coaching. All-in-all, I was surprised to see Sanders fall this late. If he is anywhere in the third round in your rookie draft, do not hesitate to scoop him up.
Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Drafts
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 4 Rounds, Superflex
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Two Rounds (10-Team, 1QB)
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Two Rounds (12-Team, 1QB)
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Superflex, 5-Round
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 10-Team, Superflex
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 14-Team, Two Rounds
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