Until the 2024 NFL Draft, we are left with little to do in regards to rookies but to complete dynasty mock drafts or select them in best ball leagues. This article will compare rookie average draft position (ADP) from our mock draft simulator and rankings with the current best ball data from Underdog to see how they compare.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Analyzing Rookie ADP Data
1.01: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – OSU)
The unquestioned 1.01 in single-QB dynasty formats is also by far the earliest rookie taken in best ball drafts with Marvin Harrison Jr. going at pick 17.8 as the WR11. While Harrison’s potential outlook in dynasty is easy to accept as being excellent, no matter the landing spot, it matters more for redraft than dynasty where a player lands. Over a few years, it’s much easier for a player to return value in dynasty as schemes and position groups get shuffled around. However, a bad landing spot for a rookie, perhaps like the New England Patriots, could make it difficult for Harrison Jr. to pay off straightaway. It’s entirely possible Harrison Jr. is being drafted at his ceiling right now.
1.05: Brock Bowers (TE – Georgia)
In TE-premium formats, it was speculated not too long ago that Brock Bowers was the type of talent who could be taken first overall as a true difference-maker out the gate. There still seems to be an air of trepidation around rookie tight ends, though, thanks in no small part to the savage hand-burning many received getting on board the Kyle Pitts hype train. Not to mention Dalton Kincaid being the chosen one in 2023 and being outplayed by Sam LaPorta, who was available 40 picks later in best ball. Bowers has been mocked as high as the fifth pick in the draft and as low as the late teens, making it hard to gauge his landing spot. Unlike Caleb Williams, there is plenty of the unknown here, keeping Bowers from getting too expensive in best ball where he has an ADP of 76, notably lower than Kyle Pitts’ rookie season ADP of 48.
1.09: Jonathon Brooks (RB – Texas)
The rookie RB1 in dynasty ADP, despite suffering an ACL injury in November, Jonathon Brooks is being drafted as the RB2 on Underdog, with an ADP of 117.3, just behind the RB1, Trey Benson at pick 116. Drafting running backs coming off an ACL injury typically doesn’t tend to work out but recency bias might have people remembering Breece Hall overcoming the odds to succeed in 2023. Hall had a litany of things in his favor, however, including quarterbacks prone to checking down and an established role in the offense. Meanwhile, Brooks will miss most or all of training camp, which is problematic for a rookie who will have to earn touches. I would be more comfortable drafting Brooks around the 150 range but drafters think otherwise.
Erickson’s Best Ball Draft Strategy & Advice
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- 2024 Best Ball Draft Beginner’s Guide
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- Best Ball Draft Strategy: Late Pick Exposure Guide
- Hero RB Best Ball Draft Strategy
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