Calvin Ridley Signs With Tennessee Titans: Fantasy Football Impact & Takeaways (2024)

In what was seemingly a two-horse race for Calvin Ridley between the Jaguars and Patriots, the AFC South rival Titans swooped in to add the polarizing wideout to provide another weapon for their second-year QB, Will Levis.

Still Ridley’s 2023 season deserves a deep dive. It’s as bizarre as they come.

Let’s examine the immediate implications and fantasy impact of Ridley agreeing to terms with the Titans.

Calvin Ridley Signs With Tennessee Titans

In his first year back after a long layoff due to a gambling suspension, Ridley secured a pivotal role in the Jaguars’ offense, catching 76 passes on 136 targets for 1,016 yards, averaging 13.4 yards per reception. Nearly 1,800 air yards on a 22.5% target share and 36% air yards share. He scored 8 touchdowns, highlighting his red-zone effectiveness (3rd in red-zone targets).

Across 17 games, he totaled 191.9 fantasy points, averaging 11.3 points per game, making him a solid WR2 in fantasy formats. WR17 overall but WR26 in points per game.

But anybody who rostered Ridley knew this was a roller coaster season for a player who had missed so much time before this year. He and Trevor Lawrence were constantly not on the same page. Especially in high-leverage situations.

Ridley led the entire NFL in end zone targets (24). He was the WR10 in expected fantasy points per game. But he never fully took advantage of his elite opportunities to churn out a fantasy WR1 season, even though it was there for the taking.

When he and Christian Kirk were both healthy Weeks 1-12, Kirk was the target leader (21% vs 20%), while Ridley was the primary downfield threat. However, his fantasy points per game were the same at 11.3 versus Kirk’s 11-point average.

The titans signed tony pollard and calvin ridley

Front office loves expected fantasy points

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) March 13, 2024

There’s no doubt that rhetoric around Ridley will be negative heading into 2024 after the human hype piece failed to deliver. And the new landing spot with the Titans will likely continue the negativity.

But the only reason Ridley “busted” was because he was getting impossible expectations placed on him for a player who hadn’t played since 2021. He showed enough “good” in my estimate to acknowledge that the talent is still there and that we, as a drafting community, may have just been a year too early on Ridley. He won’t turn 30 until late December.

I’d be lying if I said I love the spot with the Tennessee Titans. Sure, he’s got a big-armed QB, but that doesn’t create consistent production if he is used in a similar downfield role. DeAndre Hopkins is still an elite target earner – 27% target share, 46% air yards share and 13.4 fantasy points per game (WR13) with Will Levis under center. But that was also accompanied by a sub-50% catch rate.

And Ridley never asserted himself in target share last season between Kirk or Evan Engram.

The Titans land Calvin Ridley pic.twitter.com/PGpO9LLiwz

— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) March 13, 2024

Ridley’s going to continue to have spiked weeks of production in a more pass-heavy centric offense heralded by new head coach Brian Callahan. Assuming that the Titans don’t draft a top-tier rookie WR – still very much in play as Hopkins enters the final year of his career – a concentrated target share between Hopkins/Ridley would be ideal for fantasy purposes. It’s possible that Tennessee might not value the TE position, given the Bengals’ lack of TE production under Callahan the last several years. And RIP Treylon Burks.

Given Ridley’s vastly suppressed price compared to last season (projecting with his new team), I’m bullish on buying the dip on Ridley. Hopkins is another year older, and the contract suggests he is the future No.1 WR for the Titans – for better or worse.