Every fantasy baseball platform has unique draft rankings, especially ESPN. When comparing the consensus average draft position (ADP) of the major sites to ESPN, there are major variations – just look at Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth, whose ADP is 175 in ESPN vs. a 302 consensus. A dive into similar examples can reveal overvalued players to avoid.
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Overvalued Players in ESPN Fantasy Baseball Drafts
Luis Castillo (SP – SEA) — 18 ESPN ADP vs. 32 Consensus ADP
Luis Castillo is the sixth-highest pitcher in ESPN’s ADP, the very same as consensus rankings. However, ESPN groups Castillo next to Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman and Corbin Burnes, causing him to be a second-rounder instead of an early fourth-round pick. The right-hander has been a consistently good workhorse throughout his career but it is hard to argue he is as valuable as other available players.
Adley Rutschman (C, DH – BAL) — 25 ESPN ADP vs. 39 Consensus ADP
The top catcher has become a fantasy stud but perhaps ESPN exaggerates Adley Rutschman’s stardom. Rutschman plays nearly every game and has great plate discipline, good contact and decent power. What makes him elite as a catcher, though, is less elite for batters at any other position. ESPN managers should focus on a top batter/pitcher in this range instead of drafting Rutschman for the catcher premium.
Alex Bregman (3B – HOU) — 41 ESPN ADP vs. 69 Consensus ADP
Alex Bregman’s plate discipline makes him an excellent fantasy commodity. But to what extent? The longtime Astro has established himself as durable and seemingly allergic to strikeouts. It is questionable, though, if he should be this early of a pick when ESPN managers can get similar third basemen at a lower premium price, such as Yandy Diaz (60) and Nolan Arenado (64), or serviceable ones like Alec Bohm (149) and Josh Jung (194).
Luis Arraez (1B, 2B – MIA) — 57 ESPN ADP vs. 126 Consensus ADP
The two-time batting title recipient and second player named Luis on this list has a wide disparity between his ESPN ranking and everywhere else. Luis Arraez has been the best contact hitter in the game recently, batting .335 from 2022 to 2023, making him an envied source of BA in category leagues. The two-time Silver Slugger’s consensus ADP may be too low but ESPN’s ranking is high for a player who mainly hits singles.
Steven Kwan (LF – CLE) — 71 ESPN ADP vs. 180 Consensus ADP
Steven Kwan had a sophomore slump after a stellar rookie season, declining in every major category from a .298/.373/.400 slash line to a less impressive .268/.340/.370 line. Kwan contributes to fantasy lineups — especially in point leagues — but he has not yet proven to be the top outfielder assumed at this ADP. The outfielder could be a steal at his consensus ADP but managers could be getting robbed on ESPN.
Brandon Nimmo (LF, CF – NYM) — 90 ESPN ADP vs. 157 Consensus ADP
Brandon Nimmo has had nearly identical 2022 and 2023 campaigns, serving as a consistent contributor. Even so, the outfielder has not necessarily been the best at his position. Nimmo’s ESPN ADP towers above his consensus but he has been so good that perhaps managers may still want to pull the trigger and draft him.
Keibert Ruiz (C – WAS) — 104 ESPN ADP vs. 180 Consensus ADP
Keibert Ruiz had a breakout campaign in 2023 and was an underrated gem at the catcher position. ESPN made sure to correct Ruiz’s lack of recognition with an ADP that puts him next to players such as Nick Castellanos and Sonny Gray. Similar to Rutschman, Ruiz is a good catcher but there are talented bats or pitchers available in this range that could help a team more
Jose Berrios (SP – TOR) — 116 ESPN ADP vs. 160 Consensus ADP
Jose Berrios’ difference in ADP is not horrible, considering the numbers mean less as the rounds get later. Regardless, this is too early to draft a pitcher who has a career 4.15 ERA and a below-nine K/9. The righty has never thrown fewer than 145 innings in a season (besides COVID or a shortened rookie year). There is certainly value in durability but ESPN values Berrios too highly for comfort.
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