In 2018, Blake Snell won the American League Cy Young Award. He did so on the strength of a 21-5 record and a 1.89 ERA. The next season, Snell went 6-8 with a 4.29 ERA in 23 starts. But while the numbers may look vastly different from 2018 to 2019, there was no discernable decrease in skills. Snell’s expected metrics in 2019 were right in line with 2018. His xERA dropped from 3.13 to 3.04, while his xFIP went from 3.16 in 2018 to 3.31 in 2019. Snell’s subpar 2019 was largely the result of negative regression.
I wanted to find some players who could be in for negative regression in 2024. This is not necessarily a “do not draft” list. A player can experience negative regression and remain useful. He can even excel at fantasy baseball. I think of this more like a “buyer beware” list. With that in mind, here are my top negative regression candidates for 2024.
Negative Regression Candidates for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Jose Altuve (2B – HOU)
Jose Altuve has been one of the best second basemen in fantasy baseball for over a decade. And I expect him to be one of the best at his position this season. However, I do believe he is in store for some negative regression. Altuve’s batting average has risen in three straight seasons, capping off with last year’s .311 mark. But his expected batting average (xBA) was just .245. That was the first time in the Statcast era (not counting the shortened 2020 season) that Altuve’s xBA was lower than .262. The .066 difference between Altuve’s AVG and his XBA was the highest in baseball last season. His average was largely the result of a .348 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). That number was his highest mark in that metric since 2018.
Altuve has been a solid contributor in steals in recent years, with 32 combined steals in 231 games since 2022. But his sprint speed plummeted to a career-low 38th percentile last season. Altuve has shown throughout his career an ability to adjust to the situation at the plate. He has a knack for sneaking a base hit through the infield when his team needs it or taking advantage of Houston’s short left-field porch when the situation calls for it. Similarly, he is savvy enough to pick and choose his spots on the basepaths. I do not think Altuve is in for a bad season. I just believe fantasy managers are asking too much if they are looking for him to extrapolate last season’s numbers for a full season in 2024.
Blake Snell (SP – SF)
Hey look, it’s Blake Snell on a list of negative regression candidates. What are the odds? I promise there is more to my argument for Blake Snell being on this list than simply, “Look what happened last time he won the Cy Young Award.” He was legitimately very good last season. Among 99 starting pitchers who allowed at least 350 batted ball events (BBE) last year, Snell had the lowest ERA with a 2.25 mark. Only Gerrit Cole came within half a run of Snell’s number. But Snell ranked just 20th among that group of pitchers with a 3.77 xERA. The 1.52 difference between Snell’s ERA and xERA was easily the highest among this group. No other pitcher had a differential higher than 1.19. Snell’s 1.52 number is the highest since 2019 when the illustrious trio of Dakota Hudson, Zach Davies and Brett Anderson turned the trick.
The good news for Snell is that he is way better than any of those three pitchers ever could be. Snell has elite strikeout potential. He has struck out 29.7% of hitters throughout his career, including six straight seasons with a K rate of 30.9% or higher. However, his 86.7 left on-base percentage was easily the highest among starters and appears due for regression. Snell finally signed with the San Francisco Giants last week. The last time Snell switched teams, his ERA was 4.20 for San Diego in 2021. That might be an outlier, but considering his late signing, it could be a situation worth monitoring. Snell will likely need a couple of weeks to ramp up to full speed. Snell is a top-25 fantasy starter this year but I don’t necessarily see him being a bargain compared to his average draft position (ADP).
Matt McLain (2B, SS – CIN)
Matt McLain hit the ground running upon his callup in 2023, hitting .290 over 89 games with 65 runs and 50 RBIs to go along with 16 homers and 14 steals. But those numbers seem a little high based on his underlying metrics. McLain had an xBA of .256 last year. Still a solid number but much lower than his actual average. He also struck out 28.5% of the time. That put him in the 16th percentile among all MLB hitters. For reference, McLain had a similar strikeout rate (28.1%) over 103 games in AA in 2021. That year, he hit .232. While I would bet the “over” on McLain hitting higher than .232 this year, I would also bet the “under” on him hitting less than .290.
Perhaps more importantly, McLain is dealing with an injury that sounds more severe than previously reported. Reports last week suggested McLain “should be fine” after being scratched due to a shoulder injury. Since then, he underwent an MRI that revealed an issue that requires a second opinion. The shoulder injury is expected to result in McLain beginning the season on the Injured List (IL). Even if McLain returns to action relatively quickly, fantasy managers may not be able to count on the level of production he provided last season.
William Contreras (C – MIL)
William Contreras is one of the most coveted catchers in fantasy baseball. I have him ranked fourth among all catchers, so this is not a player I am avoiding by any means. But the batting average in particular feels a bit fluky. Contreras is a career .275 MLB hitter, including a .285 mark since 2022. That number has been greatly influenced by a very high BABIP. Last season, Contreras posted a .348 BABIP — the highest mark for a qualifying catcher (excluding 2020) since Buster Posey’s .347 mark in 2017. No other qualifying catcher since Posey’s 2017 season had a BABIP higher than .325. Contreras also posted a .344 BABIP in 2022 in 97 games.
To that point and his credit, Contreras led all catchers in hard-hit rate last year. He also cut his strikeout rate from 27.7% in 2022 to 20.6% in 2023. I’m not suggesting Contreras’ batting average will completely tank in 2024. I just think his contributions in batting average are a bit overblown given his underlying metrics. Contreras could just as easily hit .235 as he could hit .285 this season. However, Contreras is one of a few catchers who could hit .235 and still be considered a fantasy asset. He was one of two catchers with at least 600 plate appearances last season. I would not be surprised to see Contreras eclipse that total again this year.
Shane Bieber (SP – CLE)
Shane Bieber went 6-6 with a 3.80 ERA for the Cleveland Guardians in 21 starts last season. Those seem like decent enough numbers. But they were accompanied by a career-low 20.1% strikeout rate — a far cry from the 29.3% Bieber entered the year with. The rest of Bieber’s metrics were not a whole lot better. Bieber had a 4.83 xERA, over a full run higher than his 3.80. His previous career-high xERA was 4.18 back in his rookie season. Bieber finished in the bottom eight percentile or worse in several key metrics, including hard-hit rate allowed (47.8%), expected batting average allowed (.284) and average exit velocity allowed (91.6 MPH). After some rough outings, the Guardians placed Bieber on the 60-day IL due to right elbow inflammation.
If there is a case for optimism here it would be that Bieber was potentially hurt the whole time and pitching through the injury to the best of his ability. He returned for two starts at the end of the season and pitched fairly well. He allowed five runs in 11 innings over those two starts but did strike out 12. Bieber has pitched well thus far in spring training, striking out 29.3% of hitters. That is right in line with his career stats before 2023. But it is also a very small sample size against less-than-elite competition in some cases. It seems like most fantasy managers are expecting a return to form for Bieber but I am having trouble buying it. Bieber is more of a negative regression candidate than a potential bounce-back player.
TJ Friedl (OF – CIN)
Like his teammate Matt McLain, TJ Friedl will begin the 2024 season on IL. The Reds outfielder suffered a fractured wrist last week and is out indefinitely. While the injury is sure to suppress expectations, I’m not sure they should have been as high as they were in the first place. No player had a bigger difference between his slugging percentage (SLG) and his expected slugging percentage (xSLG) last season. Friedl’s spread was .146. Only Zack Cozart in 2017 had a bigger difference between his SLG and his xSLG in the Statcast era. No hitter in the Statcast era (since 2015) had a bigger spread between his weighted on-base average (wOBA) and his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) than Friedl’s .064 number.
Friedl hit 18 home runs last year but that does not feel like a sustainable number. Statcast tracks the number of home runs each hitter would hit if all batted ball events occurred in each ballpark. Friedl’s number in his home park in Cincinnati was 17, so perhaps he just took advantage of his surroundings, as 13 of his 18 homers came at home. But across all 30 MLB ballparks, Friedl would have hit just under 12 home runs last year with all things being equal. Wrist injuries are tough for hitters to come back from, especially early on. Even if Friedl returns to action relatively quickly, I would not expect much of anything from him in the power department. Between Friedl’s injury and his underlying metrics, this might be a lost season for the Reds outfielder.
Michael Wacha (SP – KC)
Michael Wacha looks to be facing negative regression on multiple fronts. First, Wacha severely outperformed last season in comparison to his Statcast metrics. Out of 99 pitchers who allowed 350 or more BBE, Wacha had the sixth-highest xBA-BA (.026), 12th-highest xSLG-SLG (.041) and the ninth-highest xwOBA-wOBA (.027). As a result, it should be no surprise Wacha’s 1.05 xERA-ERA was the fifth-highest among this set of starting pitchers. But there may be an even bigger reason why Wacha is among this year’s biggest candidates for negative regression — his win expectancy. Wacha won 14 games in just 24 starts last season. In this day and age of starting pitchers throwing fewer innings, Wacha’s win total is a huge anomaly.
Of the other 11 pitchers to record 14+ wins last year, Wacha was the only one who made fewer than 30 starts. His 58.3% win rate is almost impossible to sustain in today’s game. Spencer Strider was the only pitcher last year to beat that number. He is universally regarded as the top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. Wacha is anything but, especially when you factor in his underlying numbers. Wacha pitches for the Kansas City Royals now, a team with one of the lowest projected win totals (73.5). Fantasy managers are smartly seeing the pitfalls (ADP of 285.31 on NFBC in March). But even that may be too high for the 32-year-old. Wacha feels more like a waiver-wire streamer than a back-end fantasy starter.
Dean Kremer (SP – BAL)
Like Wacha, Dean Kremer is not a pitcher fantasy managers are actively pursuing. But as with Wacha, I am not sure Kremer needs to be drafted, outside of deeper leagues. Some of the appeal lies in Kremer’s ability to toe the rubber every fifth game. That does have some value, especially as pitchers fall by the wayside at such an alarming rate. Kremer also benefits from pitching for Baltimore, who should again be among the better teams in the league. My issue (aside from Kremer’s hideous manbun) is that he is not particularly good at pitching. Scatcast measures each pitcher’s percentile rankings in 16 different categories. Dean Kremer is above average in exactly two of them. And he is in the 36th percentile or lower in the other 12.
People will see the 13 wins and 4.12 ERA and think Kremer is a solid performer heading into 2024. I see the 4.93 xERA (fourth-highest among 44 qualifiers) and 13.7% K-BB% (10th-lowest) and think negative regression is coming. And I think that is doubly true if and when hitters adjust to the movement on Kremer’s four-seamer, which is his only reliable offering. Four of his six pitches last season had a Run-Value of -3 or worse. Until he can develop another go-to pitch, I don’t see Kremer being very useful in fantasy. I would rather take a flier on a pitcher with upside like A.J. Puk, Louie Varland or Zack Littell later in drafts than rely on Kremer.
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