Fantasy football never sleeps, especially with the rise of best ball leagues over the past couple of years. With free agency (mostly) behind us and the 2024 NFL Draft quickly approaching, it’s a great time to dive into drafting. Identifying high-value targets is paramount for success.
In this article, I unveil seven players who promise to outperform their current draft positions and possess the potential to become cornerstone pieces of your Underdog best ball teams. From under-the-radar sleepers to potential breakout stars, these players are primed to make a significant impact, making them invaluable additions to your draft strategy.
Fantasy football never sleeps, especially with the rise of best ball leagues over the past couple of years. With free agency (mostly) behind us and the 2024 NFL Draft quickly approaching, it’s a great time to dive into drafting. Identifying high-value targets is paramount for success.
In this article, I unveil seven players who promise to outperform their current draft positions and possess the potential to become cornerstone pieces of your Underdog best ball teams. From under-the-radar sleepers to potential breakout stars, these players are primed to make a significant impact, making them invaluable additions to your draft strategy.
This article is simple: A handful of my favorite best ball targets with a brief analysis for each one that will help steer your draft strategy in the right direction!
Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft Targets
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)
Underdog ADP: 141.9 (QB19)
Matthew Stafford was playing some inspired football last season. That didn’t necessarily translate to fantasy football production, though, finishing as the QB15. He still offers more upside than his current average draft position (ADP) as the QB20 off the board. The Rams return largely the same pass-catching group from 2023 that propelled Stafford to four 20+ half-PPR performances in his last six games.
Looking at some of the other quarterbacks going around Stafford (Kirk Cousins, Drake Maye, Aaron Rodgers) I think he offers just as much upside with a fraction of the major downside (not coming off of an Achilles injury or potentially running for VP). Consider me bullish on another rejuvenated year for Stafford.
Will Levis (QB – TEN)
Underdog ADP: 175.8 (QB24)
So far this offseason, the Tennessee Titans have signaled to us that Will Levis is their guy and they want to surround him with enough talent to properly evaluate him. First, Ryan Tannehill remains unsigned and unlikely to return to Tennessee. Second, Tennessee signed Calvin Ridley to a massive contract and added Tony Pollard to their backfield. It remains to be seen if the Titans move on from DeAndre Hopkins (doing so could save them up to $16 million against the cap) but at least Levis won’t see a major downgrade in surrounding talent.
In Levis’ rookie season, he played a boom-or-bust style perfect for best ball. Levis’ 10.7-yard average depth of target (ADOT) led the league last year. The addition of Ridley suggests that won’t come down by much (if at all). Admittedly, he only had three games with at least 15 half-PPR fantasy points but the extra time to develop and knowing he’s the starter should contribute to a rising ceiling for Levis.
Running Back
Trey Benson (RB – ARI)
Underdog ADP: 101.6 (RB30)
In last month’s draft, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Trey Benson with the second pick in the third round as the second running back off the board. In terms of landing spots, you really can’t ask for a much better situation. Benson will be competing primarily with James Conner, who turns 29 this May. I wrote about Benson’s athletic and production profile the other week, and I was impressed enough to make him one of my guys before the draft happened, so now I’m even more excited!
The Cardinals’ offense should also be demonstrably better this year with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kyler Murray fully healthy entering the season. Rookie ADPs often rise throughout the offseason, so I’m drafting Benson as much as I can now while his value is still slightly depressed.
D’Ernest Johnson (RB – JAX)
Underdog ADP: 216 (RB93)
In the second half of last year, D’Ernest Johnson became Jacksonville’s RB2 behind Travis Etienne. While Etienne did not miss any time, he was hampered for a stretch during the middle of the season and Johnson was above a 20% snap rate in all but one of the final nine games of the season. Conversely, Tank Bigsby had a snap share above 20% only twice all season (his last time coming in Week 6).
Jacksonville easily could have gone into this season with Tank Bigsby as their RB2 but instead re-signed Johnson to a one-year deal. The Jaguars did draft Keilan Robinson from Texas, but they used the 32nd pick in the fifth round to do so — that’s a point in the draft where he might not even make the roster. Johnson should not be undrafted with one of the more valuable handcuff roles in the league.
Wide Receiver
Jameson Williams (WR – DET)
Underdog ADP: 101.5 (WR49)
For the first time in his short career, it feels like Jameson Williams doesn’t have any barriers to having a great season. His rookie season he was coming off of an injury from his final season in college and last year he served a four-game suspension to start the season. With Josh Reynolds now in Denver and Detroit not making any major investments in their receiving group, Williams should easily step in as the third option for Jared Goff behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
Williams has pretty much locked down the team’s role as the primary deep-threat, though, with a 16-yard average depth of target last year. This will make him a boom-or-bust fantasy producer, but we don’t care about that in best ball when we don’t have to set lineups! While Williams struggled to earn targets last year (he recorded more than five in just three games), Williams hit a 65% route share in all three of Detroit’s playoff games. If his route share holds steady, I’m optimistic he’ll pay off a 9th-round ADP.
Darnell Mooney (WR – ATL)
Underdog ADP: 155.7 (WR71)
Last week, the Atlanta Falcons signed Darnell Mooney to a three-year, $39 million deal. Pairing him with Kirk Cousins, Atlanta’s other major free-agency addition, will give Mooney the best passing quarterback he’s played with in his short career.
While Drake London is undoubtedly the WR1 in this offense, Mooney should see the field plenty. Zac Robinson, Atlanta’s new offensive coordinator, is coming over from the Rams where they ran the most 11 personnel over the last several seasons. With that, I also expect Atlanta’s pass rate to skyrocket (meaning I don’t think it will be a league-low like it has been the past couple of seasons). There should be more volume to go around for the Dirty Birds and Mooney will be one of the beneficiaries.
Tight End
Isaiah Likely (TE – BAL)
Underdog ADP: 175.0 (TE21)
Mark Andrews‘ injury in 2023 gave us our first real look at Isaiah Likely as a true tight end handcuff. In the six games Andrews missed to end the regular season, Likely ran a route on an incredible 79% of Baltimore’s dropbacks (up from his 17% rate with Andrews in the lineup).
Andrews will be back in 2024 (he even played in Baltimore’s final playoff game). But, if we look at what Baltimore has done this offseason in bolstering their pass-catching group, it’s a lot of nothing. Baltimore didn’t bring back Odell Beckham and they spent just one fourth-round draft pick on a wide receiver, leaving a potential opportunity for them to use more 2-TE personnel and get Likely on the field. Even if they don’t, Likely will still maintain the contingent upside if Andrews gets hurt again.
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