It’s early in the offseason but there are already some players we need to avoid in best ball drafts. Whether it be due to their current predicament, injuries or being a clear case of regression, one way or another, these might be players you are best served only taking if they fall past their current average draft position (ADP).
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Best Ball Players to Avoid
Jayden Daniels (QB – LSU)
A few months ago it seemed a clear case of Caleb Williams at the 1.01 in the upcoming draft, followed by Drake Maye as the 1.02, or at the very least, the second quarterback off the board. Now as the draft approaches Jayden Daniels’ stock seems to be climbing and Maye’s is falling. Daniels has rushed for over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons to end his time with LSU. While that kind of dual-threat ability is very desirable at the quarterback position, there are reasons to be concerned. Daniels plays football as Anthony Richardson does — failing to get out of the way of tacklers and frequently taking big hits, despite being at least 40 pounds lighter than Richardson at 210 pounds officially. He’s more likely to be on the fringes of 200 pounds, though. Daniels also played with elite receivers at LSU, including Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. Could we project him for a good year if he lands with the Patriots? Right now, at pick 123, Daniels is a big question mark and a hard pick to make.
Jayden Daniels got trucked nasty ?? pic.twitter.com/qNkk8ICaEc
— MyBookie – Bet With The Best (@MyBookie) September 30, 2023
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – Ohio State)
There was a time when you might get a discount on rookie wide receivers in best ball drafts. The long-anticipated arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. has best ball drafters taking him mid-way through the second round at pick 17.7, though. This is before we even know his landing spot. If Harrison Jr. were to land with the Cardinals, which is the current consensus thinking, he would automatically assume WR1 duties. However, how confident can we be when Kyler Murray is coming off his worst completion rate since his rookie year (65%) in a season he repeatedly failed to connect with Marquise Brown (when he was active)? Trey McBride can easily take another step forward in year three also. When Ja’Maar Chase was drafted in 2021, he went as the WR29 in best ball drafts, finishing as the half-PPR WR4, which would be an excellent outcome for Harrison Jr. in his rookie year. Having some exposure to Harrison Jr. feels necessary but be careful of over-drafting him close to his ceiling range.
Austin Ekeler (RB – FA)
Coming off an atrocious year by Austin Ekeler’s standards, he is being drafted 82nd overall as the RB24. That in itself isn’t particularly bad for Ekeler, who we know will continue to have pass-catching upside, even at age 29 and coming off a year where his missed tackles forced dropped from 4.2 in 2022 to 2.9 in 2023. Ekeler has always dominated work in the receiving game, seeing 6.5 per game in 2022. Even in a down year, he finished in the top 12 last season. But the trouble here is that Ekeler is being drafted ahead of James Conner (85.5), who looked fresh and useful for fantasy in 2023, Brian Robinson Jr., who is the only RB of note in Washington currently and Raheem Mostert, who just scored a massive 21 touchdowns and is still under contract with the Dolphins for 2024. Ekeler heads into free agency for the first time in his career and might not find the warmest of welcomes. We’ve seen running backs like Todd Gurley become free agents and disappear out of the NFL entirely. A pick of Ekeler could be an entirely wasted one.
Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE)
The Browns sent a fifth-round pick and a sixth-rounder to the Broncos in exchange for Jerry Jeudy, and it’s unlikely to make him more desirable than if he’d stayed in Denver. Jeudy was the more expendable receiver of the Broncos pair, with Courtland Sutton’s 10 touchdowns in 2023 one of the few bright spots on offense. Meanwhile, Jeudy managed 3.4 receptions per game, his lowest since 2020. Jeudy has flashed at points in his career, like in his rookie season, when he put up two 20+ point games but he’s only managed two such games since. The quarterback play in Denver has long been an issue but it hasn’t stopped Sutton from being more productive. Jeudy is hardly going to a fantastic situation with Deshaun Watson far from living up to his ridiculous cap hit. At pick 135, there are better dart throws to be had.
5th and a 6th tells you everything you need to know about Jerry Jeudy.
— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) March 9, 2024
TJ Hockenson (TE – MIN)
Despite tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 16, TJ Hockenson is still going off the board at pick 106 in drafts (TE15). In best ball, we want players who can give us week-winning upside but it seems very optimistic to think Hockenson will be back playing before Week 6, at the earliest. Plus, how effective will he be? Tight ends might not be driving forward through their knees as much as running backs but it will take some time for Hockenson to get back up to speed and be a reliable option. Not to mention the Vikings could quite possibly have a new quarterback under center. By the time Hockenson is healthy, he could be, at best, the third option behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Unless we hear positive news about Hockenson, he’s a do-not-draft unless his ADP gets to around 150.
Jonathon Brooks (RB – Texas)
The rookie running back out of Texas is currently being drafted at pick 117 on Underdog, despite tearing his ACL in November. If this was an episode of Arrested Development, Tobias and Lindsay would be remarking on how drafting running backs coming off late-season ACL injuries doesn’t work out for other people, but will for them. Breece Hall did manage to come back from his torn ACL suffered in Week 7 and was highly productive down the stretch of 2023. Brooks will be a rookie competing for touches, though, and drafted later than Hall. Brooks managed a total of 28 receptions in three years compared to Hall’s 82. Brooks will be an interesting name for 2025 drafts but he’s an easy pass right now.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)
Fresh off a record-breaking rookie season, Sam LaPorta is being drafted as the TE1 at pick 30. The major worry for LaPorta is that there isn’t much room to grow with his production, as the Lions expect a second-year jump from Jahmyr Gibbs and continuously talk up Jameson Williams. LaPorta had 120 targets in 2023, one of six tight ends to see over 100. Where he stood out, however, was in the touchdown department, scoring 10. Touchdowns are one of the least sticky stats in football and if LaPorta had scored three fewer touchdowns, in line with nearly all the top options at the position, then his total points and points per game for the season would have dropped him to TE4. It’ll be a lot harder for LaPorta to pay off this third-round cost if he catches fewer touchdowns in 2024.
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