We are now less than three weeks away from the start of the season with the majority of your real drafts ramping up soon. It is important to remember that the average draft position (ADP) and where players are valued/ranked is different on every platform, so you can find different values and players to avoid on each platform.
Here is a look at a handful of players who could be overvalued on CBS.
- Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator
- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
Overvalued Players in CBS Fantasy Baseball Drafts
J.T. Realmuto (C – PHI) — 67 ADP on CBS
One of the positions I tend to punt the most in fantasy drafts is catcher. It’s understandable if you want to invest early in someone like Adley Rutschman. Otherwise, I believe you are much better off waiting till the double-digit rounds rather than overdrafting J.T. Realmuto in the sixth round of 12-team leagues.
The .252 batting average for Realmuto last season was his lowest since his rookie season, while he struck out the most times in his career (138) and had his lowest RBI mark (63) since 2016, not including the shortened 2020 season.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR) — 29 ADP on CBS
The ADP for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on CBS is already trending down eight spots. Yet, I still believe he could be a little overvalued.
It was a struggle for Guerrero for the majority of last season, hitting .264 with 26 home runs and 94 RBIs. He certainly can bounce back and hit 35+ home runs and drive in 100+ runs this season but he still likely won’t hit close to .300. He isn’t that much of a threat on the bases either.
The positives for Guerrero last season were raising his walk rate and lowering his strikeout rate, so we’ll see if he can keep both of those up while raising his home runs and RBIs. I wouldn’t say this is drafting Guerrero at his ceiling but it feels like the value isn’t there for a player you’re banking on bouncing back in the home run and RBI categories, while maintaining his advancement in walk rate and strikeout rate that he also posted in one season.
Lane Thomas (OF – WAS) — 149 ADP on CBS
It was a tale of two halves for Lane Thomas last season. In the first half before the All-Star break, he hit .302 with 14 home runs. In the second half of the year after the break, Thomas hit .225 at the plate.
He finished the season hitting .268 with a career-high 28 home runs and 86 RBIs.
Thomas was a league-winner last season as a player who was drafted in the 300s in the majority of drafts. He has jumped up close to 200 spots on average in drafts this season. It makes sense given the stat line he finished with last season. The numbers he posted in the second half just need to be understood in comparison to his huge first half which was seemingly an outlier.
Zac Gallen (SP – ARI) — 32 ADP on CBS
Zac Gallen is trending down five spots in ADP on CBS, where he is still a bit overvalued.
It was a huge season last year for Gallen — 3.47 ERA across 210 innings with 220 strikeouts while finishing third in Cy Young voting.
Despite all of those numbers on paper, Gallen did allow a lot of hard contact. His strikeout-to-walk percentage rose and his xERA rose to 4.16 on the season. Gallen still figures to likely be solid this season but he does carry some risk if you’re drafting him as your No. 1 starter given the red flags that came from his advanced numbers last season.
Alexis Diaz (RP – CIN) — 150 ADP on CBS
After a dominant first half of the season, where he posted a 2.03 ERA last year, Diaz saw his ERA rise to 4.61 in the second half. He also saw his strikeout-to-walk ratio take a significant drop.
On the season, Diaz finished No. 2 in the National League in saves with 37. He was also in the sixth percentile in walk percentage at 12.6, though, and he pitches in one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in the MLB, which is another risk.
The Reds are looking to take another step forward as a team this season with a lot of young talent, so Diaz should continue to see solid opportunity as a closer. The risk he carries given where he pitches and his lack of control at times simply needs to be understood.
It is important to understand that there is a difference between the terms “overvalued” and “busts.” In fantasy baseball and any fantasy sport for that matter, every player can be worth drafting if they fall far enough. These are simply a handful of players to be cautious of for different reasons based on their ADP on CBS heading into this fantasy baseball season.
Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
- The Welsh’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Joe Pisapia’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Justin Mason’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- KC Bubba’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Blake Meyer’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Mason’s High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy (Premium)
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