Drafting starting pitchers always carries some risk, as an injury is always one throw away. We’ve seen Lucas Giolito go down with an elbow injury, Gerrit Cole and Edward Cabrera needing MRIs, and more likely to come as we approach the start of the season. Most injuries may come as a surprise, while other pitchers already have some previous concerns entering the season. Below are five pitchers who bring high risk but also high reward on draft day.
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High Risk/Reward Pitchers
Tyler Glasnow (SP – LAD)
Tyler Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in the game and you have to use a top-10 pick to draft him. Last year, after missing most of 2022, Glasnow threw a career-high 120 innings. He finished the year with a 25.8% K-BB, which was his fifth straight season with a K-BB over 25%. Glasnow also brings outstanding ratios to any team. Joining the Dodgers may get a lot of wins. As long as Glasnow can stay healthy (the risk), he can reward fantasy managers in a significant way.
Eury Perez (SP – MIA)
Eury Perez threw 128 innings last year, 91.1 innings coming with the Marlins, showcasing why he is a top prospect pitcher. Over his 19 starts with the Marlins, he had a 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a 20.6% K-BB. His 53 first-half innings were outstanding, as he collected a 2.36 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Perez will only be 21 years old this season. If he can continue to improve, he can be one of the next aces in baseball. The question will be health, as he is already dealing with blisters and improvements as he continues to develop.
Carlos Rodon (SP – NYY)
Carlos Rodon battled injuries in his first season with the Yankees. He only threw 64.1 innings with a horrendous 6.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Even worse, Rodon only had a 12.6% K-BB and a 24.2% CSW. Rodon looked great early in spring, with his velocity back to normal, but his recent start took a significant step back. If Rodon is healthy, he can be the ace the Yankees need if Cole is seriously hurt. If the velocity does not return, Rodon can ruin the Yankees and any fantasy team that takes a chance on him. He is a significant risk/reward pitcher on draft day.
Walker Buehler (SP – LAD)
Walker Buehler missed part of 2022 and all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He looks healthy and ready to return this season but the Dodgers have already said they will slowly play him as they want his innings for the postseason. Buehler should return to a regular workload by June, giving a fantasy team four months of full-time Buehler. If you can stash Buehler that long and if he can return to form, then Buehler can be a tremendous risk/reward on draft day.
Triston McKenzie (SP – CLE)
After throwing 191 innings in 2022, Triston McKenzie pitched only 16 innings in 2023. He returned and looked suitable for one start but it all fell apart again. He appears to be healthy this spring. A healthy McKenzie is a great pitcher who brings strong ratios and a K-BB near 20%. His frame and past injuries make McKenzie very risky. His average draft position (ADP) is not high, though, which also makes the reward very large.
Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
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Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
- The Welsh’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Joe Pisapia’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Justin Mason’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- KC Bubba’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Blake Meyer’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Mason’s High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy (Premium)
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