Draft season is underway and fantasy managers are searching for the next crop of players to break out. Last year, Justin Steele, Zach Eflin, Nolan Jones and Yandy Diaz broke out in big ways and provided big boosts for relatively cheap. These are the kinds of players that can help win fantasy leagues. Below are some players who can exceed their draft day values significantly.
2024 Fantasy Baseball Breakouts
Triston Casas (1B – BOS)
Triston Casas is primed for a big breakout in 2024 after he finished with 24 HRs, 65 runs and 70 RBIs in his first full season in the big leagues. His triple slash line of .317/.417/.617 in 211 second-half plate appearances came mostly from batting sixth in the order. He’s moving up to the cleanup spot this year. We will need to keep a close eye on how he does against southpaws with the signing of C.J. Cron as a righty bench bat. If he can improve his 32.0 K% against them, he should exceed his FanGraphs projection of 28 HRs and .262 AVG.
Zack Gelof (2B – OAK)
Zack Gelof had a mini breakout in his rookie season — 14 HRs and 14 SBs over 300 plate appearances and a .840 OPS. There is still plenty of room for an even bigger breakout this year. He should get a full season of plate appearances, batting second for the Athletics. If we pace out his numbers from last year, assuming zero progression, it would look like this over 600 projected plate appearances: 80 runs, 28 HRs, 64 RBIs, 28 SBs, .840 OPS. Now, let’s see where he can improve in his sophomore season. Surprisingly, the right-handed batter’s average against lefties last year was well below his career number in the minors. He batted a lowly .167 against them compared to .317 in the minors. There’s little reason to believe Gelof won’t exceed projections in 2024.
Gavin Lux (2B, SS, OF – LAD)
Gavin Lux was one of the most exciting breakout candidates this time a year ago. He worked with Driveline to improve his bat speed and saw positive results. However, an ACL tear in February kept him out for the entirety of the 2023 season. His last healthy season was in 2022 where he slashed .293/.368/.428 in 418 plate appearances through September 1st before injuries dampened his overall line. He is finally healthy and was going to be the Dodgers’ everyday shortstop before defensive miscues in spring training forced manager Dave Roberts to move him to second base in favor of Mookie Betts. As long as he can stay healthy and his defense doesn’t keep him off the field, the former top prospect could have his long-awaited breakout.
Maikel Garcia (3B – KC)
Maikel Garcia sneakily had a productive rookie season. The 23-year-old had 23 steals in only 123 games. His hard-hit rate, chase rate, whiff rate, average exit velocity and xBA were all 82nd percentile or better, suggesting he saw the ball well in his first taste of the bigs. He’s an excellent fielder and batting leadoff again for the young, exciting Royals. The only thing holding him back is his .324 OBP and 76% stolen base success rate. Even if he doesn’t improve on these numbers, 30+ steals is well in the range of outcomes for the young third baseman.
Andres Munoz (RP – SEA)
Andres Munoz has always had the stuff to be an elite closer but has been blocked by the presence of veteran relievers in the role. That changed at the trade deadline last year when the Mariners sent closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks, opening the door for Munoz to be the closer the rest of the way. He flourished over the final two months compiling 11 SV with a 2.92 ERA and 12.41 K/9 after the trade. He is currently the 13th closer off the board, according to FantasyPros’ average draft position (ADP). Munoz can easily return top-five value at the position.
Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
- The Welsh’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Joe Pisapia’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Justin Mason’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- KC Bubba’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Blake Meyer’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Mason’s High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy (Premium)
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