Post-hype sleepers aren’t the most exciting pool of players to pick from. Gamers often fall in love with MLB’s shiny new toys. Yet, the players who don’t immediately hit the ground running or have lost the bloom off their rose can be highly profitable selections in fantasy drafts. The following four players are intriguing choices that are being underrated by drafters.
Post-Hype Sleepers
Oneil Cruz missed almost the entire 2023 campaign with an ankle injury, preventing him from building on an encouraging rookie season. He had only 40 plate appearances, but the results were eye-catching. The toolsy infielder hit one homer and had three stolen bases, a 17.5 BB% and 20.0 K%.
Post-hype sleepers aren’t the most exciting pool of players to pick from. Gamers often fall in love with MLB’s shiny new toys. Yet, the players who don’t immediately hit the ground running or have lost the bloom off their rose can be highly profitable selections in fantasy drafts. The following four players are intriguing choices that are being underrated by drafters.
Post-Hype Sleepers
Oneil Cruz missed almost the entire 2023 campaign with an ankle injury, preventing him from building on an encouraging rookie season. He had only 40 plate appearances, but the results were eye-catching. The toolsy infielder hit one homer and had three stolen bases, a 17.5 BB% and 20.0 K%.
Cruz’s high strikeout rate (34.9 K%) in 361 plate appearances in his rookie season partially undermined his high-end power and speed. According to FanGraphs, Cruz had a more palatable 22.1 K% and an outstanding 13.8 BB% in 276 plate appearances in Triple-A. His plate discipline and acceptable strikeout rate allowed him to pop 14 homers, steal 12 bases and post a .259 batting average in Triple-A.
Cruz had 17 homers and 10 stolen bases in 361 plate appearances for the Pirates in 2022, but his .233 batting average was tough to stomach. Fortunately, Cruz was more aggressive in the strike zone and improved his swinging-strike rate from 2022 to 2023. He’s also kept his strikeout rate in check in spring training. If Cruz can hover around a 25.0 K%, his power and speed can be game-changing.
According to Baseball Savant, Cruz’s 122.4 mph maximum exit velocity was the highest among players with at least 150 batted-ball events in 2022. He was also 17th in barrels rate (8.9 Brls/PA%) and tied for 14th in fly ball/line drive exit velocity (97.2 mph). Cruz also has elite speed. Among players with at least 10 opportunities since 2022, Cruz’s 29.8 feet/second sprint speed was tied for the 17th-highest mark. Cruz is a similar archetype player to Elly De La Cruz at a fraction of the cost.
When I highlighted Ryan Pepiot as an undervalued starting pitcher in early January, he had an average draft position (ADP) of 232.7. Gamers have wisely bumped him into the top 200. Nevertheless, Pepiot is still undervalued.
Pepiot conquered Triple-A and has pitched well in his limited time in the majors. In his final 137.1 innings in Triple-A, he spun a 3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.6 BB% and 29.7 K%. Pepiot’s control was dreadful in his first taste of the majors in 2022. However, he settled in when he had a second crack. In eight appearances (three starts) spanning 42.0 innings last season, Pepiot had a 2.14 ERA, 3.25 xERA, 3.99 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA, 0.76 WHIP, 3.1 BB%, 23.9 K%, 28.7 CSW%, 98 Stuff+, 104 Location+ and 103 Pitching+.
Gamers would typically get excited about a young pitcher after they tallied a low 2.00s ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP after previously pitching well in Triple-A. Pepiot’s price hasn’t skyrocketed, though. He’ll face an innings cap, but that’s a small price to pay at a fringe top-200 ADP.
Byron Buxton isn’t a post-hype sleeper. He’s a post-post-hype sleeper. Nonetheless, Buxton fits the spirit of this piece as a once ballyhooed prospect and young big-leaguer. Injuries have been the 30-year-old outfielder’s kryptonite. Buxton has surpassed 500 plate appearances only once in MLB since reaching The Show in 2015. He was up and down between the majors and minors during a few of his early seasons and eclipsed 500 plate appearances in Triple-A and the majors combined in 2016 before doing so for the only time in the majors in 2017.
Buxton was limited to only serving as a designated hitter last season and struggled at the dish. He feels healthy now and will return to the outfield this season. Buxton is having a productive spring and is ready for the regular season.
Moreover, Buxton is still a Stacast whiz. Among 343 players with at least 150 batted-ball events in 2023, Buxton was tied for 37th in barrels rate (8.4 Brls/PA%), tied for 11th in maximum exit velocity (116.7 mph) and tied for 10th in fly ball/line drive exit velocity (97.3 mph). Buxton was also tied for 31st in sprint speed (29.3 feet/second).
In 983 plate appearances since 2021, Buxton has hit 64 homers, stolen 24 bases and recorded a .240 batting average. His rate for homers and stolen bases during that stretch was 32.6 and 12.2 per 500 plate appearances, respectively. Buxton’s power and speed are a steal at his ADP, and he’ll have ample opportunities for runs and RBI as the likely No. 2 hitter for the Twins.
Prospects don’t develop at the same rate. Not every highly touted one hits the ground running in the majors. Jarred Kelenic had a 67 wRC+ through his first 558 plate appearances in the majors. In 416 plate appearances in 2023, the left-handed-hitting outfielder had a 108 wRC+. It wasn’t a fantasy-friendly season, but it was a massive leap in the right direction for a once highly regarded prospect who torched Triple-A.
In 580 plate appearances in Triple-A, Kelenic hit 28 homers with 16 stolen bases, a .302 batting average, .374 OBP, 9.7 BB%, 19.8 K% and 127 wRC+. He hit 11 homers and stole 13 bases in 416 plate appearances last year, albeit with a 31.7 K% and .253 batting average.
In addition to trending in the right direction, Kelenic might be the next example of a player benefitting from a change of scenery. The Braves traded for him this offseason, and Kelenic will hit near the bottom of a deep, potent lineup. Atlanta believes the ecosystem of veteran hitters and the lack of pressure Kelenic will face as a down-order hitter will help him thrive. The organization also doesn’t plan to platoon him.
Kelenic is a low-risk selection at his ADP, with the potential for a reward exceeding his cost.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
