4 Free Agency Winners/Losers: Dynasty (2024 Fantasy Football)

With the first wave of free agency over with, the 2024-2025 NFL landscape is beginning to reveal itself. A handful of impactful veteran free agents remain available but most teams have already built their foundation at this point in the offseason.

For dynasty managers, that’s just one potential landmine to avoid. The 2024 NFL Draft has 3-4 QB1 types, an elite tight end prospect in Brock Bowers and a deep wide receiver class featuring Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Worthy (among others).

While we won’t truly know player values until after the draft, we must live in the now and project based on the information we have. Here are the winners/losers in dynasty fantasy football after a wild and unpredictable free-agency period.

Dynasty Free Agency Winners/Losers

Winner: Caleb Williams (QB – USC)

We’re beginning this exercise with someone who hasn’t even been drafted into the league. USC quarterback Caleb Williams has long been considered the consensus No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft class and that hasn’t changed.

Despite some nit-picking from media/scouts alike, Williams has a unique skill set that should thrive in today’s league. Williams has terrific arm talent and above-average accuracy. His ability to make off-platform throws outside the pocket separates him from the rest of the incoming class.

There was some talk Chicago should stick with Justin Fields. After shipping the fourth-year pro to Pittsburgh, the Bears have all but locked in on building around the rookie phenom. And you can’t blame them when you remember having a starting quarterback on a rookie-level contract is the biggest advantage in sports.

Chicago seems to have learned from their failures with Fields and have committed to adding playmakers to their offense. On the first day of free agency, the Bears reached an agreement with running back D’Andre Swift. A couple of days later, they traded a fourth-round draft pick for six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Keenan Allen.

Adding Swift and Allen to an offense already featuring wide receiver DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet is a great start for Williams’ tenure in Chicago. Along with that nucleus, Chicago also has the No. 9 overall pick to add another offensive weapon, offensive line help or an impact defensive player.

Loser: Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

While we’re on the subject of Keenan Allen, his departure from the Los Angeles Chargers is just one of many moves that could negatively impact quarterback Justin Herbert. Along with trading Allen, the Chargers also parted ways with wide receiver Mike Williams (New York Jets) and running back Austin Ekeler (Washington Commanders).

The Chargers replaced Ekeler with smash-mouth running back Gus Edwards — a pretty ominous sign of which direction this offense is going — but they haven’t added anything to their wide receiver group. With HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman taking over, the Chargers are going away from their high-volume passing offense in favor of an old-school smash-mouth running offense.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand why that’s not good for Herbert’s fantasy football potential. While that may lead to the most efficient version of Herbert we’ve ever seen in the NFL, it’s hard to see the dynasty upside right now. Quentin Johnston is Herbert’s WR1, for goodness sake. Adding someone like Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft would help but I’m not sure the passing volume will be there even with the addition of a legitimate WR1.

Winner: George Pickens (WR – PIT)

After two uneven seasons in Pittsburgh, the door is open for wide receiver George Pickens to ascend into NFL stardom. After racking up 800+ yards as a rookie, Pickens increased that number to 1,140 in his second season thanks to a late-season push with backup quarterback Mason Rudolph.

With fellow wide receiver Diontae Johnson traded to Carolina and Pittsburgh adding both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields to the QB room, the sky is the limit for Pickens in dynasty. He’s the clear WR1 now and either quarterback is an upgrade over Kenny Pickett.

Loser: Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)

Houston running back Dameon Pierce is a great example of why dynasty managers shouldn’t overvalue day-three running backs. Pierce looked like the dynasty steal of the year after racking up 900+ rushing yards during his rookie campaign but that came to a screeching halt last season.

After changing coaches and schemes, Pierce’s skillset no longer matched Houston’s offense. Pierce is more of a smash-mouth running back, while Houston’s new offensive scheme relies on zone-blocking that needs a running back capable of making quick, decisive cuts.

With Pierce a round peg for an offense needing a square peg, the Texans made a splashy move by trading for (and extending) veteran running Joe Mixon. While some may argue Mixon is washed and also not a perfect fit for Houston’s offense, he’s the RB1 in Houston for the next few seasons.