The 2024 fantasy football season is several months away. While players’ fantasy value will change between today and the start of training camp, it’s never too early to prepare for the fantasy season. Everyone wants to focus on breakout stars or ADP values. However, I will talk about players to avoid drafting. Here are four wide receivers that fantasy players should sidestep drafting in 2024.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
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Wide Receivers to Avoid
Tyreek Hill (MIA): ADP 3.4 | WR2
While he fell short of his goal to break the receiving record in 2023, Hill had an outstanding season. He ended the year as the WR2, averaging 19.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest, finishing just ahead of CeeDee Lamb on a points-per-game basis. The superstar led the NFL with 1,799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. However, his production declined during the fantasy football playoffs despite Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle missing time with injuries.
Hill was the WR36 from Week 14 through Week 17, averaging 11 fantasy points per game despite seeing 10.3 targets per contest. He averaged 4.5 yards per route run over the first 13 weeks but saw that average drop to 2.57 from Week 14 through Week 17 (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Hill recently turned 30 and played through some nagging injuries to end the season. Assuming Waddle bounced back next year, Hill lacks the upside and comes with too much risk to get drafted as the WR2.
Davante Adams (LV): ADP 20.2 | WR12
Somehow, Adams ended the 2023 season as a WR1 despite playing with multiple sub-par quarterbacks. The veteran was the WR11, averaging 12.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, he averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Mike Williams (13.6) and Tank Dell (12.9). More importantly, Adams’ 12.9 fantasy points per game average was his lowest since his second year in the NFL (2015). Fantasy players should be nervous to draft him next year.
The star wide receiver finished second in the league with 175 targets last season. However, 23.4% of Adams’ targets came in two contests where the veteran saw 20 or more passes thrown his way. By comparison, he averaged 8.9 targets per game in the other 15 contests. Furthermore, Adams scored 31.2% of his fantasy points last year in those two extremely high-target games. With Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell currently set as the Week 1 starting quarterback, Adams is severely overvalued as the 12th wide receiver off the board.
Stefon Diggs (BUF): ADP 24.3 | WR15
Fantasy players watched Diggs have late-season struggles in back-to-back years. The veteran was the WR10 in 2023, averaging 13 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, it was his lowest fantasy points per game average since joining the Bills in 2020. Furthermore, he had under 1,200 receiving yards for the first time since getting traded to Buffalo. Diggs was the WR3 over the first nine weeks, averaging 10.8 targets and 17.8 fantasy points per game.
Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff with the change at offensive coordinator. Diggs was the WR55 over the final six games of the fantasy season, averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game, totaling more than seven fantasy points only once. Furthermore, his yards per route run rate dropped by 41% during the regular season after the change at offensive coordinator (per Fantasy Points Data). Diggs is on the wrong side of 30 with two consecutive years of late-season struggles. He is a low-end WR2 and not a top-15 guy.
Courtland Sutton (DEN): ADP 100.7 | WR47
Unlike the first three players in this article, Sutton has an ADP well outside the top 15 wide receivers. Yet, he is someone I have no desire to draft in 2024. Last year, the veteran had the second-best fantasy season of his career. However, Sutton was only the WR35, averaging 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, the former SMU star finished fourth in the NFL with 10 receiving touchdowns, a career-high. By comparison, he had only 14 career receiving scores over entering the season.
While fantasy players want to chase touchdown upside, it can lead to wildly different fantasy performances on a weekly basis. Sutton found the end zone in 10 contests last year, averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game. That would have made him the WR14 for the season on a points-per-game basis. By comparison, he would been the WR80 on a points-per-game basis in the six contests without a touchdown. Unless the Broncos severely upgrade their quarterback situation during the NFL Draft, Sutton’s fantasy value will plummet without Russell Wilson.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
