Track record, power metrics and a clear path to playing time are prime factors to consider when looking for late-round home-run potential in fantasy baseball drafts. Home park and lineup protection are also variables to add to the equation. The group of sluggers below check all the boxes, or at least a few of them, and can be acquired at little to no risk right now, according to the current consensus average draft position (ADP) across the fantasy landscape.
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2024 Sleepers for Home Runs
Anthony Rizzo (1B – NYY)
Does anyone remember Anthony Rizzo hitting 32 long balls in 2022? Well, he did, and even though it seems like quite a long time ago, it wasn’t. Rizzo hit just .224 with 75 RBI across 130 games that year, so the home runs were the only stat of note for fantasy purposes. Last year, Rizzo was crushing it across the board over the first couple of months of the season. Through 53 games, he was sporting an .880 OPS with 11 homers. Unfortunately, a collision with San Diego star Fernando Tatis Jr. on May 28 sent Rizzo’s season into a tailspin.
Rizzo initially sat out just a few days following the collision, but, as would come to light several weeks later, he suffered a concussion that had lingering effects. During the next 46 games, Rizzo mustered only a .496 OPS with one home run across 192 plate appearances. He played his last game of the 2023 season on August 1 after dealing with dizziness and slowed reaction times.
Things got a little scary for Rizzo last year but reports and results have been positive so far in the lead-up to the 2024 season. Rizzo is healthy and has been swinging the bat well this spring, popping a couple of homers over his first few games. Yankee Stadium is one of the best power-hitting parks in the league, particularly for left-handed hitters, given its short porch in right field. Rizzo appears ready to take full advantage once again.
Max Kepler (OF – MIN)
Coming off of a solid campaign, especially in the second half, Max Kepler is not necessarily a sleeper but fantasy drafters are treating him as one to this point. The 31-year-old finished 2023 with an .816 OPS and 24 homers over 130 games. Beginning in late June, he seriously warmed up with the weather.
Max Kepler is your new #MNTwins home run leader.
His team-leading 18th gives him three straight games with a homer and ties the game off Paul Sewald in the ninth. pic.twitter.com/6HkFS7LJZg
— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) August 6, 2023
From June 20, Kepler hammered his way to a strong .297/.368/.545 slash line with 17 home runs and 48 RBI in 84 games. Those numbers stand above even the stats he put up back in his big breakout of 2019 and mark the first extended stint in which Kepler has been a reliable fantasy producer since then. He was blistering the baseball during that 84-game stretch, recording a 49.6 Hard-Hit%, 12.9 Barrel% and 92.4 avg EV. If Kepler can carry this groove into the 2024 season, 30+ home runs is a definite possibility.
Tyler O’Neill (OF – BOS)
The very definition of a sleeper, Tyler O’Neill has been nothing but frustrating for fantasy managers since his outstanding 2021 season. Injuries have limited him to just 96 and 72 games, respectively, over the last two years. When he has been in the lineup, the results have been mixed, at best. Across 649 plate appearances between 2022 and 2023, O’Neill has hit just .229 with a .707 OPS and 26.2 K%. Still, he has belted 23 long balls in that span.
O’Neill has pop. That’s never been in question. He was dealt to Boston in December and his power from the right side of the plate should play well in Fenway Park. O’Neill is expected to be in left field — where he has won two Gold Gloves — and somewhere in the middle of the Red Sox batting order most days this year. Even though he was limited to 72 games in 2023, mostly due to back issues and his stats were not great, his metrics provide some promise.
Over his 266 plate appearances last season, O’Neill recorded new career bests with a 75.0 Contact%, 87.1 Z-Contact%, 10.5 BB% and 25.2 K%. Per Statcast, his .231 AVG sat in front of a .250 xBA while his .403 SLG covered up a .449 xSLG. O’Neill increased his contact rates while maintaining a 43.3 Hard-Hit%. If that trend holds, solid results should follow this season.
Joc Pederson (OF – ARI)
After slugging .521 with 23 deep drives over 134 games for the Giants in 2022, Joc Pederson slugged just .416 with 15 home runs over 121 games in 2023. The Giants typically sat the veteran against lefties. That will likely continue in Arizona this year. The Diamondbacks signed Pederson to provide lineup protection for Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker. At a minimum, Pederson will be in the middle of the order every time the club faces a righty.
With his power potential, Pederson can put up a big home run total even in a platoon role. He’s leaving arguably the most pitcher-friendly park in the league. Even though Chase Field also tends to favor pitchers, it’s a better offensive environment than Oracle Park offers. Pederson has spent most of his career in the National League West and ripped nine homers over 193 plate appearances in Arizona. Though the numbers dropped some last year, Pederson still put up a strong 52.2 Hard-Hit%, 11.8 Barrel% and 92.1 avg EV. He also elevated the ball at better than a 60% clip.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
