Finding value where your competition cannot has always been a separator when playing fantasy baseball. The depth of the player pool makes this even more important, especially when using sites like Yahoo, which offers the average draft position (ADP) for all players on their platform. Below are three players currently undervalued on Yahoo ADP.
Undervalued Players on Yahoo
(Reference sources used in this article: Baseball-Reference.com, baseballsavant.mlb.com & Stathead.com)
Juan Soto (OF – NYY)
The Padres sent superstar Juan Soto to the Bronx this offseason where he will join the Yankees outfield. Soto is currently 11th overall on Yahoo but is worthy of being a top-10 pick. Aaron Judge (8) and Fernando Tatis Jr.(9) are the position players who immediately precede Soto.
New teammates Aaron Judge and Juan Soto had notable fantasy outputs in 2023, even with Judge being limited to 106 games. Soto led the duo in RBIs, BA, SBs and OBP. Judge took all the power-related categories, including HRs, SLG, OPS and OPS+. With a full workload, Judge would be the choice, but injuries limiting his availability for managers make Soto the more dependable pick. Judge is currently working through an abdominal issue and hopes to be ready for Opening Day. This and his significant toe injury last season could be a sign of wear on the 31-year-old outfielder’s body. Soto has a high floor and matched Judge’s 97th-percentile finish in batting run value last season. This paired with Soto’s 100th-percentile finish in walk percentage ensures he will be on the base paths to score runs for his managers.
Former teammates Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto will be on opposite coasts in the coming season after spending the last year together in San Diego. With Tatis missing the entire 2022 season due to a PED suspension, looking at 2023 is the best way to compare the two. Soto led almost every major offensive category other than SBs. Tatis provides lesser value at the plate but more speed for fantasy managers when choosing between him and Soto. He led the pair in bags, 29 to 12 last season. Soto, however, crushes Tatis in plate discipline and overall production. He led Tatis .410 to .322 in OBP, .519 to .449 in SLG, .930 to .770 in OPS and 158 to 113 in OPS+. Soto is the better hitter and it’s that simple; the extra bags from Tatis are not enough to close the gap.
Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA)
Pitching depth is required for success in fantasy baseball. Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert could be available for seven to eight picks later than he’s worth, according to Yahoo ADP.
The 6-foot-6 Seattle righty will be 26 when the 2024 season commences. Currently listed at 75th overall, Gilbert is in the range of other starters Grayson Rodriguez (68) and Zach Eflin (71).
Rodriguez made his MLB debut in 2023, starting 23 games for the Orioles. Gilbert started 32 games last year, throwing 190.2 innings compared to 122.0 for Rodriguez. Gilbert led the duo in ERA, 3.73 to 4.35 and struck out 189 batters against the 129 Ks from Rodriguez. The young Orioles hurler may still be finding his way in the big leagues, while Gilbert has established himself as a dependable piece of Seattle’s rotation. Gilbert finished in the 86th percentile in pitching run value last season while Rodriguez finished in only the 32nd. The 24-year-old Rodriguez may ascend ahead of Gilbert at some point but his abbreviated body of work is not enough to rationalize taking him first of the two.
Zach Eflin of the Rays and Logan Gilbert are comparable in the amount of work they have seen over the past two seasons. Gilbert has pitched in 64 games, starting all of them, while Eflin has pitched in 51 games with 44 starts. Gilbert has the edge in most categories making him the safer choice. He leads in IPs, wins, ERA and considerably in Ks (363 to 251). Eflin has a lower walk rate but needs to close a gap of over 120 IPs with Gilbert to pace with him in Ks. Elfin will need to shrink his ERA over the additional innings to warrant being selected in front of the Mariners’ presumed No. 3 SP in the rotation behind Luis Castillo and George Kirby.
Royce Lewis (3B – MIN)
Royce Lewis is expected to be the everyday 3B for the Twins in 2024 with just 70 total games played since debuting in May of 2022. He is 62nd overall on Yahoo and could be undervalued, especially if managers wait on relief pitchers. Let’s compare him to Matt McLain (60).
Matt McLain started his big league career last year earning 403 PAs and hitting .290. McLain appeared in 31 more games than Lewis in 2023 but the Twins 3B was able to close the gap statistically. McClain finished with 16 HRs, 50 RBIs, a .864 OPS and an OPS+ of 129. Lewis tallied 15 HRs, 52 RBIs, a .921 OPS and an impressive 150 OPS+. Both players are 24 but the potential Lewis showed as a balanced power bat and the opportunity he can expect this year is hard to pass up.
In a cross-positional comparison, relief pitchers Edwin Diaz and Emmanuel Clase fall into the same range as Lewis. Edwin Diaz is returning after missing all of 2023 with a torn patellar tendon. There will certainly be an adjustment period for him as he attempts to reconstruct his 2022 in which he posted 32 SVs and a 1.31 ERA. Clase is coming off a year with just a 3-9 record. In this range of the draft, managers would be sacrificing the ceiling of Lewis, who appears capable of 30 HRs and 90 RBIs.
Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
- The Welsh’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
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- Justin Mason’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- KC Bubba’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Blake Meyer’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Mason’s High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy (Premium)
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