With spring training underway, fantasy baseball managers are at the height of draft season. Going chalk with the average draft position (ADP) of players can be misleading when building a roster that must produce through September. Yahoo remains a popular platform for fantasy baseball and there is value to be found within the site’s current ADP rankings. Below are details on players that may be overvalued, according to Yahoo ADP.
Overvalued Players on Yahoo
(Reference sources used in this article:: Baseball-Reference.com & Stathead.com)
Bobby Witt Jr. (SS – KC)
Bobby Witt Jr. ranks second in Yahoo ADP, behind only Ronald Acuna Jr. The case for Witt being overvalued is based on those who follow him at third and fourth overall – Julio Rodriguez and Mookie Betts.
Witt and Rodriguez are young stars who provide power and speed. Rodriguez has, however, outproduced Witt in most categories thus far over 1,274 plate appearances in comparison to 1,326 for Witt. Rodriguez has the edge in WAR, HRs, RBIs, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. The OPS stands out with Rodriguez coming in at .834 during his career while Witt is at .770. In 2024, Rodriguez is likely to have more extra-base hits, ultimately granting him more chances to score runs and steal bases. Witt does have more total stolen bases thus far with 79 but has played in 21 more games than Rodriguez. Both will be fantastic fantasy assets but Rodriquez deserves to be taken ahead of Witt.
Witt made his MLB debut in April of 2022, giving him two complete seasons in the big leagues. It would take a significant leap from the Royals star to run parallel with Mookie Betts in the upcoming campaign when evaluating both players over those two years. There are just two key categories in which Witt has an advantage: games played and stolen bases. Betts, on the other hand, has hit 24 more HRs, has a .023 point BA advantage, a .093 SLG advantage and a .162 OPS advantage. All of this production alongside newfound eligibility at SS makes Betts unique for fantasy managers. The Dodgers star’s flexibility in lineups this season makes him a diverse piece creating more fantasy value than Witt.
Luis Robert Jr. (OF – CWS)
White Sox CF Luis Robert Jr. broke out in 2023, slashing .264/.542/.857 and compiling 38 HRs. Impressive but it is an outlier for Robert. Robert currently ranks 28th overall in Yahoo ADP in front of Corey Seager (29) and Michael Harris II (32).
Comparing Robert with Corey Seager over the last two years, the 2023 effort from the White Sox CF is the only thing keeping him in the conversation. During that stretch, Seager has logged 66 HRs to Robert’s 50, 179 RBIs to Robert’s 136, slugged .530 with Robert at .495 and he has 301 hits where Robert has amassed 252. The main advantage for Robert is in stolen bases where he leads Seager convincingly, 31 to 5. Notwithstanding, 20 of those bags came in 2023, so a slower year on the base paths is in play for Robert. Seager clearly has the edge at the plate. At the end of the third round, picking Seager will offer managers reliability in key hitting categories as opposed to the risk of taking a player like Robert, who has produced just once at a high level.
Fantasy baseball is about players who produce statistically across the board. Robert’s 2023 season was defined by the power he showed at the plate and the aforementioned 20 stolen bases he accrued. Since Michael Harris II debuted in 2022, Robert does not stack up overall and managers should be cautious in taking him in front of the Braves CF. Robert leads Harris in HRs with 50 compared to Harris’s 37. The two have nearly identical SLGs, however, at .495 and .494, respectively. Harris leads in SBs, BA, OBP and OPS. The point is that Harris is capable of bringing the power and speed combo Robert showed last year and has done so more consistently since the start of the 2022 season.
Robert will need to prove that 2023 was more than a honeymoon before he can be taken before Seager and Harris II.
Nick Castellanos (OF – PHI)
Nick Castellanos is entering his age-32 season this spring and currently holds the 85th overall spot on Yahoo ADP. Yahoo goes silent with outfielders following Castellanos in this range. Buried at 97 and 106 overall, though, are Bryan Reynolds and George Springer, respectively.
Youth is on Reynolds’ side when being compared to Castellanos as he comes into the 2024 season at 29 years old. The statistics over the past two seasons also tilt in his direction with Reynolds earning more PAs, hitting more HRs, and leading the pair in OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+. Castellanos has logged more hits, RBIs and a higher BA, but all three categories are comparable. This marginal separation is not enough to overcome the advantages Reynolds has, along with the Pirates outfielder having a younger MLB career.
George Springer has fought injuries throughout his time in the bigs. Even factoring this in, he has played in just six fewer games than Castellanos over the past two seasons. At the plate, these two alternate in key categories, making them similar hitters. Castellanos takes total hits, RBIs, BA and SLG, while Springer leads in PAs, HRs, OBP and OPS. What separates Springer are stolen bases, a slot he has led Castellanos 34 to 18 in since the start of the 2022 season. Springer will bring slightly more value than the Philadelphia vet, swiping bags for his managers. Springer will look to re-produce his 2022 All-Star season in which he hit 25 HRs and posted an .814 OPS.
Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
- The Welsh’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Joe Pisapia’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Justin Mason’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- KC Bubba’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Blake Meyer’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Mason’s High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy (Premium)
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