The pitcher pool is deep with intriguing options, including a few young sleepers. A pitcher must have an average draft position (ADP) after 150 to qualify as a sleeper. Conveniently, the three highlighted hurlers are selected significantly after that threshold, with the earliest ADP barely inside the top 200 and the other two outside.
- Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator
- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
Sleeper Pitchers
Bryan Woo (SP – SEA) | 190.6 ADP
Bryan Woo was drafted in the 2021 MLB Amateur Draft and pitched in the low minors during his professional debut in 2022. After nine starts of posting fantastic numbers in Double-A to begin 2023, Woo skipped Triple-A to join the Mariners.
The young righty had an encouraging rookie season after spending less than 50 innings in the upper minors. According to FanGraphs, in 18 starts spanning 87.2 innings, Woo had a 4.21 ERA, 3.48 xERA, 4.26 xFIP, 4.13 SIERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.4 BB%, 25.1 K%, 27.6 CSW%, 103 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 104 Pitching+.
Woo’s ERA and ERA estimators were adequate, and his strikeout rate was rock-solid, but his pitch modeling was the most eye-catching piece of his statistical profile. Five of his six pitches had Stuff+ grades above 100, climbing from 101 for his four-seam fastball to his 103 cutter, 109 sinker, 111 slider and 126 curve.
Unfortunately, his changeup had an 84 Stuff+ grade, and Woo had no answers for lefties. He allowed 180 left-handed batters a .389 OBP, .539 slugging and .394 wOBA. However, Woo dominated righties, holding them to a .226 OBP, .268 slugging and .221 wOBA. He must improve against lefties to graduate from a streamer or bench option to start only against righty-heavy lineups to a genuine break-out hurler. Woo’s price is cheap enough to roll the dice on improvement against left-handed batters.
Brandon Pfaadt (SP – ARI) | 205.8 ADP
Brandon Pfaadt was destroyed in his first six starts of his rookie campaign in 2023. He had a 9.82 ERA. After more minor-league seasoning, Pfaadt made massive strides down the stretch. In his final 12 starts spanning 70.1 innings in the regular season, the young righty had a 4.22 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA, 1.24 WHIP, 5.4 BB%, 24.4 K%, 28.4 CSW%, 102 Stuff+, 106 Location+ and 107 Pitching+.
Pfaadt’s solid-if-unspectacular underlying data and eye-catching pitch modeling at the end of the season would be enough to warrant speculating on Pfaadt this season at his cheap ADP. Yet, his outstanding postseason makes that decision a no-brainer. In five starts tallying 22.0 innings in the playoffs, Pfaadt had a 3.27 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 2.96 SIERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.7 BB% and 29.9 K%. He’s locked into the rotation to begin the year and is confident after succeeding in the postseason. Finally, after pitching 178.2 innings last season, Pfaadt can be a workhorse if his improvement late last season sticks.
Mason Miller (SP – OAK) | 269.6 ADP
Mason Miller was featured in 10 Must-Have Pitchers to Draft and 3 SP-Eligible Relief Pitchers to Draft, and I’ll pound the table one more time for him. The flame-throwing righty is toying with hitters in spring training. In four relief appearances totaling 4.0 innings, he’s had a 0.00 ERA, 0.55 xFIP, 0.25 WHIP, 83.3 GB%, 0.0 BB%, 53.8 K% and 26.7 SwStr%.
Miller’s dominance isn’t a product of smoke and mirrors, either. Instead, he’s lighting up the radar gun.
hey mason miller pitched today pic.twitter.com/fupyAcP1cd
– Codify (@CodifyBaseball) March 11, 2024
Miller’s electrifying stuff will play well at the end of Oakland’s bullpen. The Zeile consensus projections peg him for 61.4 innings, a 3.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, three wins, 16 saves and 79 strikeouts. Even if Miller shares closing duties early in the year, he can help enough in ratios and strikeouts to warrant rostering as a non-closing reliever. Gamers should bet on Miller’s talent, allowing the cream to rise to the top.
Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
- The Welsh’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Joe Pisapia’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Justin Mason’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- KC Bubba’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Blake Meyer’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Mason’s High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy (Premium)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
