In a perfect world, fantasy baseball managers can draft any player they want. Sadly, it’s not a perfect world. Managers will have to make hard decisions on draft day, inevitably watching talent fall into the hands of rival teams. Luckily, according to Zeile Consensus Projections and stats from recent seasons, many good players who slip away have alternatives who can perform at a similar level with less draft cost according to their average draft positions (ADP).
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2024 Batter Comparisons at Different ADP
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR): ADP 27 / Christian Walker (1B – ARI): ADP 77
| Zeile Projections | PA | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | H | BB | SO | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero | 662 | 582 | 92 | 32 | 100 | 6 | .284 | .358 | 165 | 67 | 99 | .508 | .866 |
| Christian Walker | 642 | 566 | 82 | 28 | 93 | 6 | .254 | .328 | 144 | 62 | 129 | .462 | .790 |
Perhaps the cover of MLB The Show 24 is not the best pick in fantasy. Guerrero is certainly a top player, but Zeile predicts Christian Walker to have a very close season. Walker, who turns 33 on Opening Day, has been underrated throughout his career. However, the first baseman is finally getting respect on draft radars after back-to-back seasons of 30-plus homers and headed into a contract year.
It is hard to say no to Guerrero. The Dominican slugger had a jaw-dropping 2021 season when he came in second in MVP voting after a performance akin to his Hall-of-Fame father. Disappointingly, if one looks at his stat pages, that 2021 season is starting to look like an outlier instead of a norm. Guerrero led the league in 2021 with a 167 OPS+ but has had an average 118 OPS+ in the other four years of his career. This is a very impressive number, yet it is not on par with the MVP form managers expect from Guerrero every year.
In a vacuum, Guerrero is the better player. This is not a vacuum, though, and drafting Walker could allow a team to take a slight hit in production in return for an overall better roster.
Randy Arozarena (OF – TB): ADP 41 / Brandon Nimmo (OF – NYM): 182 ADP
| Zeile Projections | PA | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | H | BB | SO | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 644 | 560 | 89 | 24 | 82 | 26 | .260 | .337 | 146 | 65 | 156 | .448 | .785 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 645 | 554 | 89 | 19 | 67 | 5 | .267 | .353 | 148 | 74 | 129 | .439 | .793 |
Arozarena’s balanced talent makes him one of the best outfielders and earns him this early draft position. The Rays star is especially valuable in category leagues due to his three-season long 20-20 streak and overall ability to contribute to many categories.
Nimmo is also one of the best outfielders in the game. The Mets leadoff hitter is one of the most underrated bats in fantasy. Drafters should take advantage. The Zeile Projections show the true extent of Nimmo’s quiet talent – he has Arozarena beat in quite a few categories despite going almost 150 picks later in the draft. Projections are just projections, but Nimmo has consistently put together good seasons when healthy. Although Arozarena possesses a more well-rounded skill set, Nimmo can provide similar value much later in the draft.
J.T. Realmuto (C – PHI): ADP 73 / Jonah Heim (C – TEX): ADP 185
| Zeile Projections | PA | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | H | BB | SO | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto | 514 | 462 | 66 | 19 | 67 | 15 | .256 | .312 | 118 | 38 | 125 | .446 | .758 |
| Jonah Heim | 495 | 449 | 56 | 18 | 64 | 2 | .246 | .307 | 110 | 40 | 95 | .422 | .730 |
Realmuto is currently the second-highest catcher in ADP, trailing only Adley Rutschman. The 33-year-old has proven that he is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, but fantasy managers must discern if drafting him this early is a good decision. Yes, he is projected to post great stats as a catcher, but there are decent options far deeper into the draft class. The difference in projected performance between Realmuto and Jonah Heim is much smaller than the large gap in ADP suggests.
Heim had a 2023 breakout campaign that recognized him as an All-Star. The Rangers backstop is very enticing at this position, but if a manager is unsure that he is legitimate then there are many other catchers in this range, such as Francisco Alvarez, Mitch Garver and Keibert Ruiz. Realmuto is also known for his speed, a part of his game that will deteriorate as he ages.
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