2024 Valspar Championship: One-and-Done Picks & Predictions

It’s going to be difficult following up the epic finish we saw play out during the 50th edition of The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass this past Sunday. Scottie Scheffler’s final round at eight-under-par was just enough to win by one stroke outright at -20-under-par, as Wyndham Clark’s birdie putt went halfway down before going out on the 18th hole.

Moving on from the high-stakes drama in Ponte Vedra Beach, over 150 golfers now relocate outside for the Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, Florida at Innisbrook Resort on the Copperhead course. Notorious for its closing 3-hole sequence, dubbed the “Snake Pit”, players will have to overcome two par 4s and a par 3 in-between after being fed four par 5s throughout the round.

We’ve seen several players perform well at Valspar in recent years, namely, Sam Burns, who won back-to-back in 2021 and 2022 before notching a sixth-place finish (-5) in 2023. PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is back to reveal his favorite golfers to use in one-and-done pick leagues during the 2024 Valspar Championship.

Big Guns

Sam Burns

We’ve already covered the bases on Sam Burns. He’s dynamite at Valspar, either winning outright or finishing no lower than sixth on the leaderboard in each of his past three appearances. Chances are high that Burns is still available to use in pick ’em leagues, especially since his 10th, T3, T10 finishes at Pebble Beach, the WM Phoenix Open, and Genesis were all over a month ago. Finishing T30 and T45 in his past two events means Burns is due for a bounce-back at one of his favorite courses on the PGA Tour.

Justin Thomas

Justin Thomas’ skill is unquestionable. However, we’ve seen the 15-time PGA Tour winner struggle quite a bit in the past calendar year. Fortunately for Thomas, he’s back on a course that has treated him well, including a T10 finish (-3) in 2023. Putting has been a weak point for Thomas during his streaky slump, but his irons and short game around the green justify using him as a pick at Valspar this week.

Secondary Options

Xander Schauffele

We haven’t seen much of Xander Schauffele on the Copperhead course at Innisbrook, however, he did manage a T12 finish here two years ago. Coming off of a strong effort at TPC Sawgrass, winding up T2 at -19-under-par, expect the California native to pick up right where he left off. Being ranked 20th or better in all strokes gained metrics, excluding putting (SG: 80th), makes Schauffele a good investment if he’s still available.

Jordan Spieth

Jordan Spieth offers plenty of anxiety during his rounds. We hardly can predict whether he’s hitting a birdie or a bogey on any given hole. Spieth’s been solid at Valspar over the years though, finishing T3 in 2023, staying under par in all four rounds, which is a tough feat at a course like Copperhead. We won’t get many more courses where Spieth has performed consistently well at after Valspar is over, so he’s certainly worth consideration as the golfer to plug in for one-and-done pick league this week.

Sneaky Plays

Nick Taylor

I’ve been all over Nick Taylor this season and he’s delivered, especially during his playoff win at the WM Phoenix Open, opening at +17000 in the outright betting market. The Canadian and four-time PGA Tour winner was making a run at the top of the leaderboard at TPC Sawgrass before imploding with a +4 round on Saturday, which may keep a lot of bettors off of him at Valspar this week. A T10 finish here a year ago, plus ranking 11th SG: Putting and 9th SG: Approach makes Taylor the definition of a sneaky play.

Sam Ryder

Sam Ryder was a birdie machine at TPC Sawgrass, especially on Sunday, but water hazards wound up keeping him from serious contention. Ryder is still winless in his six-year PGA career, although he’s logged two runner up finishes. He finished T19 a year ago after missing the cut in 2022. Natural progression would indicate that Ryder is due to crack the top-ten entering the final round, relying on his 37th SG: Approach and ranking 11th in driving accuracy rate.

Favorite One-And-Done: Nick Taylor

Nick Taylor is our guy this week at Valspar. Yes, he’s already won once this season and folded after surging up the leaderboard at The PLAYERS Championship last weekend, but Taylor has an elite approach game and red-hot putting to put the field on notice. If you missed out on Taylor at the WM Phoenix Open, Innisbrook presents another great opportunity to tag him as the primary one-and-done pick at Valspar ahead of Thursday’s opening round tee times.