NFL Free Agency is almost here! Let’s dive into this year’s class of NFL Free Agents as well as their fantasy football outlook.
- Erickson’s Free Agency Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- NFL Free Agent & Draft Needs for Every Team
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
2024 NFL Free Agents
Saquon Barkley
After playing the 2023 season on the franchise tag, Saquon Barkley is seeking a long-term deal from the Giants. Reports have stated that Big Blue will let him test the waters of free agency, and the 27-year-old will allow New York to match or exceed the best offer.
Despite missing three games due to a high ankle sprain, Barkley finished as the RB16 heading into Week 18, averaging 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game (RB11).
He posted the 3rd-highest snap rate in the NFL at 80% behind only Kyren Williams and Christian McCaffrey. 8th in touches (288) at 20.6 per game.
Barkley compares his talent to that of McCaffrey (one year younger), and we saw CMC go nuclear in the 49ers offense the past two seasons. If Houston – 5th-most available cap space – wants to take their offense to the next level, adding Barkley could be the exact move they need to make to upgrade from Devin Singletary/Dameon Pierce.
Barkley could benefit from a better-supporting cast, given his 40% rushing success rate, ranked 4th-worst in the NFL in 2023. He was still 7th in rushing yards per game (69).
The Giants are the current favorites (-150) to re-sign the talented running back, followed by the Texans (+275), Chargers (+400) and Bears (+1600).
Josh Jacobs
Jacobs had a rollercoaster 2023 season, starting slow but then performing well until a quad injury knocked him out of the last four games of the season.
Jacobs was on my do-not-draft list during the offseason, as the track record of RBs leading the NFL in touches the year before was horrible. Jacobs, unfortunately, lived up to the billing, finishing the year as the RB23 overall averaging 12.5 points per game (RB19).
He was at his best in three of his four starts under Antonio Pierce, seeing carry totals of 27, 26, 20 and 14 while averaging 14.9 points per game (RB6).
Las Vegas has interest in a reunion with Jacobs, but it will have to be at the right price given how well Zamir White played the last part of the season.
Current betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbooks have Jacobs at -200 to remain in Las Vegas. Then it’s the Chargers (+750), Texans (+850) and Ravens (+950).
Jacobs is by far one of the top free-agent running backs available at 26 years old. I wouldn’t read too much into Jacobs’s brutally inefficient season as a rusher in 2023 – as it looks more like a complete outlier compared to the rest of his career. If anything, it’s just another reason to fade the RB coming off a year after leading the NFL in touches. 2023 leader in touches? Christian McCaffrey. Second? Rachaad White at 336.
D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift surprised many during the 2023 season, outperforming expectations as a rusher.
He was the RB17, averaging 11.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, accounting for nearly 70% of the backfield rushing attempts for the Eagles. RB25 in points per game.
Still, on the year, Swift was never fully emphasized as a receiver, being swapped for Kenneth Gainwell at times of third downs and inside two minutes. As a result, he only ran a route on 37% of dropbacks (29th) – although he posted a strong 21% target rate per route run.
Similar to last season, the entire Eagles backfield are free agents, aside from Gainwell, who will be entering the final year of his contract. Gainwell-stans had about the worst run-out possible in 2023 because Kenny G was the RB1 in Week 1 before getting hurt. And once Swift got the RB1 job and stayed healthy, he was the Eagle’s primary rusher all season, giving Gainwell no chance at getting the job back.
But the Eagles’ trust in Gainwell this past offseason should not be forgotten about, as they entered the year with Gainwell as the starter. However, Gainwell’s status as PFF’s last-graded rusher among RBs with at least 80 carries does not project in his favor.
Regardless, Philly is a prime landing spot for an FA RB or rookie RB in the draft.
With how this run game struggled down the stretch, it’s beyond me why they never opted to give Rashaad Penny a chance to play. Penny will also be a free agent in 2024.
Swift also fell victim to the Eagles’ late-season tailspin. After starting the season as a back-end fantasy RB1, he fell to RB30 from Week 11 onward, averaging under 10 fantasy points per game (9.3). He started the year (aside from Week 1 when he barely played) averaging five more points per game (14.3).
Only time will tell whether Swift will return to Philly, but there’s no denying that his career statistical year should not be overlooked by RB-needy teams. He was healthy the entire season, which allowed him to hit career-highs in offensive snaps, carries, yards (1,083 rushing yards, 5th in the NFL), etc. He proved he could handle a heavy workload – 282 touches – while maintaining high-end efficiency (4.5 yards per carry).
He’s only 25 years old and has plenty of gas left in the tank. Had it not been for the dreaded Eagles “tush push,” Swift could have easily flirted with double-digit TDs instead of settling for just 6 scores (5 rushing).
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