The NFL recently announced the salary cap will increase by $30.6M in 2024. The timing is perfect, with many big names hitting the market in 2024.
Let’s take a look at my top-three NFL Free Agency predictions for 2024.
- Erickson’s Free Agency Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
2024 NFL Free Agency Predictions
Over Five Significant Changes for Running Backs
This year’s Free Agency class at running back is star-studded! After the dramatics around franchise tags and contracts in 2023, the most likely scenario is multiple running backs signing with new teams in 2024. Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs sit at the top of the class, followed by older veterans Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler. There’s also a variety of backs that can function in both three-down back roles or committee roles, including D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, Devin Singletary, JK Dobbins, AJ Dillon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, Zack Moss and more. Teams have a true smorgasbord, depending on their budget and needs.
The Giants are unlikely to franchise tag Barkley, meaning Barkley should seek a multi-year deal elsewhere. Jacobs, Henry and Ekeler have expressed openness to returning to their teams, but with Las Vegas and Tennessee having backup running backs primed to take on a bigger role – Zamir White and Tyjae Spears – both Jacobs and Henry should move on to new teams. Ekeler’s situation is a bit murky with a new run-heavy coaching regime and no true heir-apparent in the backfield. Still, if Ekeler is seeking a multi-year deal, he’ll hit the market as well.
Free Agency will look like musical chairs at the running back position, and as the big names vacate positions, keep your eye on the lower-tier backs signing cheap contracts.
Quarterback Free Agency Is Boring; Teams Fill Needs Through Trades & the Draft
I’d love to make flashy quarterback predictions, but I anticipate Kirk Cousins remaining in Minnesota and Baker Mayfield returning to Tampa Bay. The big moves will come with Justin Fields, Russell Wilson and teams trading up for potential first-round draft picks to draft a quarterback.
In addition to Cousins and Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew, Joe Flacco and a variety of backup signal-callers are on the market. Teams looking to take a risk will focus in on Fields. Win-now teams or bridge teams will look at Wilson. Rebuilding teams will focus on the draft.
Focus on rumors during the Combine. The top-three prospects won’t throw or participate in drills, leaving focus on players like J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. and Spencer Rattler. If those quarterbacks fail to impress, teams will feel more inclined to retain their free-agent quarterbacks, and movement will be limited to Fields and Wilson.
More 2024 NFL Free Agency Coverage
- NFL Free Agent & Draft Needs for Every Team
- Erickson’s Free Agency Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Most Important Players of the Offseason
- 3 Ideal NFL Free Agency Landing Spots
- 6 Bold Predictions for 2024 NFL Free Agency
- Top 20 NFL Free Agents
- Top 10 NFL Free Agent Running Backs
- Top 10 NFL Free Agent Wide Receivers
- Top 10 NFL Free Agent Quarterbacks & Tight Ends
- 8 NFL Head Coaching Changes & Fantasy Impact
- 13 NFL Coordinator Changes & Fantasy Impact
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