NFL Free Agency is almost here! Let’s dive into this year’s class of NFL Free Agents as well as their fantasy football outlook.
- Erickson’s Free Agency Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- NFL Free Agent & Draft Needs for Every Team
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
2024 NFL Free Agents
Calvin Ridley
Ridley’s 2023 season deserves a deep dive. It’s as bizarre as they come.
Ridley secured a pivotal role in the Jaguars’ offense, catching 76 passes on 136 targets for 1,016 yards, averaging 13.4 yards per reception. Nearly 1,800 air yards on a 22.5% target share and 36% air yards share. He scored 8 touchdowns, highlighting his red-zone effectiveness (3rd in red-zone targets).
Across 17 games, he totaled 191.9 fantasy points, averaging 11.3 points per game, making him a solid WR2 in fantasy formats. WR17 overall but WR26 in points per game.
But anybody who rostered Ridley knew this was a roller coaster season for a player who had missed so much time before this year. He and Trevor Lawrence were constantly not on the same page. Especially in high-leverage situations.
Ridley led the entire NFL in end zone targets (24). He was the WR10 in expected fantasy points per game. But he never fully took advantage of his elite opportunities to churn out a fantasy WR1 season, even though it was there for the taking.
When he and Christian Kirk were both healthy Weeks 1-12, Kirk was the target leader (21% vs 20%), while Ridley was the primary downfield threat. However, his fantasy points per game were the same at 11.3 versus Kirk’s 11-point average.
There’s no doubt that rhetoric around Ridley will be negative heading into 2024 after the human hype piece failed to deliver. But the only reason Ridley “busted” was because he was getting impossible expectations placed on him for a player who hadn’t played since 2021. He showed enough “good” in my estimate to acknowledge that the talent is still there and that we, as a drafting community, may have just been a year too early on Ridley. He won’t turn 30 until late December. I’d buy the dip. Assuming he returns to the Jaguars as an unrestricted free agent.
If the Jaguars re-sign Ridley, the 2024 3rd-rounder they sent to Atlanta will escalate to a second-round pick in this year’s draft.
His QB and GM have been vocal about ‘wanting’ to keep Ridley in the building. Given the gambling suspension and inconsistent play in 2023, hard to imagine Ridley getting any better deals – especially long-term – from an outside party. Think he knows he still has a lot to prove.
Marquise Brown
The 2024 free agent had a year to forget in 2023.
He struggled with bad Cardinals quarterback play before Kyler Murray returned to the starting lineup as the WR21 overall and as the WR34 in points per game (10.2). But after Murray returned, the Cardinals WR still didn’t produce. 5.8 points per game in three full, healthy games before ultimately missing the remainder of the season due to injuries.
Overall, Brown hauled in 51 receptions on 101 targets, accumulating 574 yards at an average of 11.3 yards per catch. He found the end zone four times during the season.
He scored 109.2 points over the season, averaging 7.8 points per game (53rd) in 13 games played. The lack of production was shocking, considering Brown posted nearly 1,200 air yards, a 25% target share, and 39% air yards share with the 16th-highest weighted opportunity rating.
After flaming out with his old college QB, it will be interesting to see how the market feels about Brown, especially with injuries riddling his production the last two seasons.
KC loves speed WRs, so Brown could be a fit there. The Chargers also desperately need speed at WR, and Brown has ties to the new OC in Los Angeles, Greg Roman, from their time spent in Baltimore.
Gabe Davis
Gabriel Davis did not play in the final two games of the Bills’ season. The 2024 free agent will hit the open market in a relatively weak WR free agent class, which will likely create the demand for the extremely boom-or-bust WR. He finished the season as the WR40 in total points, averaging 8.2 points per game as the WR50. Davis posted 5 games with 20-plus fantasy points in 2023 to go along with 7 TDs and 1,200 air yards (30th), but he also went completely catch less in four of his last 8 games played. Even if he goes to a new team where he can improve on his 2023 15% target share (85th), Davis’ body of work as a boom-or-bust player will be hard to knock. One could argue that with a step back in potential QB play, his spiked weeks might also not be nearly as big, even if he is slightly more consistent on a week-to-week basis.
The Giants are a logical landing spot -given their need for WR and his relationship with former Bills coaches there – as is Cleveland. Ken Dorsey is the new OC for the Browns and oversaw Davis’ entire career in Buffalo.
The Jaguars might be the most logical landing spot if they don’t retain Calvin Ridley. Their WR coach, Chad Hall, was with Buffalo as their WRs coach during Davis’ first three seasons in the NFL.
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