Spring Training is in full swing, marking the true start of fantasy baseball draft season. Each new season brings the hope of a title to every team, the fans, and fantasy baseball managers. However, a gigantic step in achieving that fantasy championship is nailing the draft, and your chances of doing so increase when you find the undervalued players and avoid the ones who are most likely to bust.
Our featured analysts are back today to share who they’ve identified as 2024 fantasy baseball sleepers and who they’re avoiding as 2024’s busts. Read on to help you in your upcoming drafts.
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2024 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Busts
Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy baseball sleeper, and why?
Bo Naylor (C – CLE)
“My biggest fantasy sleeper is Bo Naylor. Catcher is as wide open as it has ever been, with only Adley and Will Smith safely at the top. Naylor’s power/speed blend makes him a unicorn at catcher with a 20/20 season firmly on the table. Achieving this would put Naylor into the conversation for #1 overall catcher.”
– Chad Simpson (Fantasy Six Pack)
Jarred Kelenic
“In 2023, Jarred Kelenic posted a career-high 45.5% hard hit percentage that he paired with a .264 xBA. The xBA was not only a career-high but over 10 points higher than his actual average. Kelenic put up 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases in his first 84 games before getting hurt. He takes this more advanced approach from the worst ball-park factors in baseball to a top-15 for left-handed hitters. Kelenic has a legit shot to go 20/20 with an ADP outside the top 200. ”
– Christopher Welsh (FantasyPros)
Tyler O’Neill (OF – BOS)
“Tyler O’Neill is certainly up on the list for me. If he can stay healthy – big IF – O’Neill’s right-hand power should play up in Fenway Park. He was on the shelf much of last season, but the metrics from when the 28-year-old was in the lineup were encouraging. O’Neill posted career bests in K%, BB%, Contact%, and Z-Contact% while maintaining a 43.3 HardContact% in 2023.”
– Nate Miller (FantasyPros)
Sal Frelick (OF – MIL)
“Sal Frelick will have a big year. Despite tearing a thumb ligament before coming up to the bigs, Frelick’s first 191 at-bats prorated over a 600-AB season would have produced 91R, 9HR, 75RBI, 22SB, .246AVG. Healthy this year I expect a breakout line. If he adds infield eligibility, watch out.”
– Jesse Severe (Fantasy Hockey Life)
Wyatt Langford (OF – TEX)
“Wyatt Langford played at four minor-league levels after the Rangers picked him fourth overall in the 2023 MLB Amateur Draft, raking at every level and finishing the campaign in Triple-A. He’s continued to tear the cover off the ball as a non-roster invite in spring training. Langford is pushing to break on the Opening Day roster and has the tools to be a legitimate five-category contributor. His elite command of the strike zone (18.0 BB% and 17.0 K% in 200 plate appearances in the minors) should help him quickly transition to hitting big-league pitching. Langford’s upside is sky-high.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)
Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY)
“Giancarlo Stanton is one of my favorite sleepers this year. The Yankees’ slugger is only two years removed from .273 BA and 35 HR. Stanton still hits the ball hard (15.7% barrel rate) and showed up to camp noticeably lighter. I’m in on a bounce-back for the 34-year-old in a stacked Yankees lineup.”
– Frank Ammirante (The Game Day)
Brandon Lowe (2B – TB)
“Brandon Lowe is a player I keep drafting later. There is certainly injury risk with him, but that is built into his 265 consensus ADP. The upside is that he leads all second basemen in home runs. That’s a great value for a player who can be drafted as a middle infielder in a 15-team league.”
– Corey Pieper (Fantasy Six Pack)
Triston Casas (1B – BOS)
“I see Triston Casas as a player who will skyrocket in value in his first full season. In 2023, he flashed his potential and showed why he was labeled as a highly touted prospect as he posted a 13.1 Barrel rate, a near 50 percent Hard Hit rate, and great expected statistics and wOBA and Slugging. Along with his bat skills, Casas exhibited great plate discipline, sporting a 14% BB rate and a 23% Chase rate. Although he does need to work on his strike-out rates, all of his other metrics point toward more positive regression in the 2024 season, and I can easily see Casas finishing above, at minimum, the top 70 percentile in all Statcast Batting Statistics. ”
– Rex Rutchik (Left Turns)
Riley Greene (OF – DET)
“I keep drafting Riley Greene, and I don’t have any regrets about it. (Of course, the season hasn’t started, so there’s that.) His current ADP is 149, and I feel like that’s a deal at this point. In 2023, the 23-year-old improved his all-around batting performance, slashing .288/.349/.447 across 99 games. He is currently slotted in the lineup second, just ahead of Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter, who will be happy to drive him in 80-90 times. Greene offers too much upside to ignore, and I feel like he could be a Top 70 player when it’s all said and done.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Henry Davis (OF – PIT)
“Henry Davis isn’t as exciting as he was upon his call-up last season, mainly because he’s no longer catcher-eligible in most fantasy leagues. That should change soon, as Yasmani Grandal is dealing with foot issues and is no longer the player he used to be anyway. Davis has worked on his defense all offseason, will be needed behind the plate, and should be able to slot in at catcher before long. That makes for a power bat with 25+ HR upside at a premium position. Davis has torched the ball this spring and could be a huge run-producer in the heart of the Pirates’ order.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
Aaron Civale (SP – TB)
“Aaron Civale is a sleeper after being traded to Tampa Bay at last year’s deadline. The Rays are one of the best organizations in baseball when it comes to pitching, and if they show interest in a player, it’s a good idea to buy in. Zach Eflin signed as a free agent in 2022 with them and subsequently had the best season of his career. Eflin took a step forward when he ditched his fastball and leaned into his sinker, curve, and cutter. Civale uses these same pitches at nearly the same usage rate as Eflin when he was on the Phillies. Civale pitched to a 5.36 ERA and 1.37 WHIP after his trade, but his xFIP was two full runs lower. If Tampa Bay’s coaching staff can get Civale on the Zach Eflin plan, his ADP of 213.8 is way too low. ”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)
Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy baseball bust and why?
Bobby Miller (SP – LAD)
“My biggest fantasy bust is Bobby Miller. Currently being drafted in the top 80, Miller is one of many young 2nd and 3rd year pitchers lumped into a tier below the aces of the position. The problem is he’s often going 30-50 places before the next person in is tier. This is a problem when it is a player who tipped pitches in 2023, lacked confidence in his stuff at times and plays for a team that has repeatedly tossed aside scuffling starters for their next guy up. I am an outlier on this but I expect Bobby Miller to not be on the MLB roster at end of season for the Dodgers ”
– Chad Simpson (Fantasy Six Pack)
Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA)
“Though Logan Gilbert raised his K% while lowering his BB%, Gilbert’s upside might be fading. Every pitch he threw had a higher xBA against. His fastball lost spin and became less effective as a put-away pitch, while getting hit hard. Where Gilbert can still be serviceable, the ADP around 65 is something to avoid with the amount of pitcher upside that follows. There legit might 15-20 pitchers going after him that prove to be more valuable.”
– Christopher Welsh (FantasyPros)
Elly De La Cruz (SS, 3B – CIN)
“At just 22, Elly De La Cruz is certainly already one of the most electric young players in the league. He added 13 HR to his 35 SB across 98 games as a rookie in 2023. He has the potential to put up a 20 and 50, respectively, in those categories this year, and that would make him a very valuable fantasy producer. Still, for as high as he’s going in many drafts, De La Cruz is still an unpolished hitter that strikes out a ton (33.7%). He’s also much more likely to be a drain in AVG (.235) than an asset. The ceiling is quite high to be sure, but De La Cruz is no sure thing right now. ”
– Nate Miller (FantasyPros)
“Elly De La Cruz’s elite combination of power and speed is easy to dream about. Sadly, those tools won’t matter if his strikeout rate undermines them. According to FanGraphs, De La Cruz had a 30.3 K% in his first 99 plate appearances in The Show, but a .407 BABIP helped him post a .293 batting average. De La Cruz had a 34.8 K% and .312 BAIP in his final 328 plate appearances for the Reds last year. As a result, his batting average cratered to .216. De La Cruz’s upside is undeniable, but his price is too steep for a profile with his considerable bust potential. ”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)
“Elly De La Cruz at an ADP of 29 feels like a bust. Don’t get me wrong – I think he is an elite talent with the type of profile that is fun to have on a fantasy team. But I’m not buying that he will perform at his potential across all of 2024. The flashy, fun stuff masks the K% above 30 and an OBP hovering around .300. Additionally, the suspension of Noelvi Marte means that when he does get on base, he’ll be relying on inconsistent hitters like Jeimer Candelario and Spencer Steer behind him to drive him in (after he steals two bases, most likely). Again, to state clearly, I think he’s a great fantasy player who will be worth an ADP of 29 someday. I just don’t think it’s this year.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Tyler Glasnow (SP – LAD)
“Tyler Glasnow went to the Dodgers, and everyone seems to expect an immediate ace. He looks the part, but he’ll turn 31 this summer and has never surpassed 120 MLB IP in a season. Also, who is the last player Tampa traded away who got better in a new environment?”
– Jesse Severe (Fantasy Hockey Life)
Zac Gallen (SP – ARI)
“Zac Gallen is one of my busts because he ace threw 243 innings combined between the season and playoffs last year. I’m a bit concerned by that workload along with a shaky second half. There are also other pitchers I prefer over Gallen at his ADP, like Logan Webb.”
– Frank Ammirante (The Game Day)
Nico Hoerner (2B – CHC)
“I don’t trust Nico Hoerner to return his draft value. He is one of the best contact hitters in the game, which gives him a safe floor for a batting average. The question is, what else does he offer that separates him from other second basemen? The easy answer is to point to the 43 stolen bases that he had last season. While that is true, I’m much more likely to target later options at second base like Thairo Estrada or Andres Gimenez, who can essentially provide the same statistics.”
– Corey Pieper (Fantasy Six Pack)
Cody Bellinger (1B, OF – CHC)
“I believe that Cody Bellinger is a candidate to be a significant bust this fantasy season. Expected statistics are to be taken with a grain of salt; however, it’s certainly worth noting that, per BaseballSavant, Bellinger was 8th worst in the MLB last season in BA/xBA difference and 5th last in both SLG/xSLG and wOBA/xwOBA. Along with this, Bellinger’s overall quality in contact (Exit velocity and Barrel rate) has remained around the 20th percentile, and his Hard Hit rate has hovered around the 10th percentile. If his numbers even out with his expected statistics and he fails to notably improve his contact metrics, he will be a fall-back candidate. ”
– Rex Rutchik (Left Turns)
Blake Snell (SP – FA)
“Whenever Blake Snell signs with a team, he’ll get a bump in ADP, and many will expect a repeat of his Cy Young performance from last year. That assumes he will be in regular-season form quickly despite getting no work in spring training. It also assumes that he will land in a spot where he can pitch in a home park as favorable as San Diego or Tampa Bay. Snell is also notoriously volatile due to a career 10.9% walk rate that ballooned to 13.3% last year. There are far more factors pointing to a down season than a repeat of 2023, and I’m not willing to pay a top-100 draft price betting on the latter.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
Luis Robert Jr. (OF – CWS)
“Luis Robert Jr. is going to be this year’s biggest bust. He broke out last year with 38 homers and 20 steals with 170 combined runs and RBI, but his underlying numbers weren’t that far off from his 2022 season, where he finished with 12 HR and 11 SB in 98 games. His Max EV, Avg EV, K%, and HardHit% were all down a bit in ’23 compared to ’22, and his BB% was in the bottom seven percentile. The team around him doesn’t provide much protection, and pitchers can expose the holes in his swing. His career-high was only 98 games played before 145 last year, and he still carries plenty of injury risk. Even if he doesn’t miss time due to injury, there should be some regression.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)
Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
- The Welsh’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
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- Justin Mason’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- KC Bubba’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Blake Meyer’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
- Mason’s High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy (Premium)
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