NFL free agency has been in full swing for a week, and it has been quite a ride for many fantasy-relevant players. From the Falcons securing a competent QB to the Steelers securing two QBs with plenty of question marks, fantasy managers will need to sort through the changes in preparation for the 2024 fantasy football season.
We asked several experts which players have seen their stock go up after free agency as well as whose has gone down. Here are their responses.
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NFL Free Agency Stock Up, Stock Down
What player has seen his fantasy value increase the most as a result of a recent transaction and why?
ATL: Drake London (WR), Kyle Pitts (TE) & Bijan Robinson (RB)
“Atlanta Falcons. All of them. Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson are all viewed in a much higher regard than they were to start the offseason after the Kirk Cousins acquisition. I am all for moving these guys up the rankings, but there’s reason to believe that they might become too overvalued with all the hype.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Drake London is one of the more talented young wide receivers in the NFL. However, he has averaged only 8.6 career half-point PPR fantasy points per game because of poor quarterback play. Kirk Cousins isn’t an elite quarterback but has been outstanding for fantasy players, producing multiple WR1s in the same season. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen were top 12 wide receivers in 2018, while Justin Jefferson and Thielen were top eight in 2020. Fantasy players can finally draft London as a high-end WR2 and feel good about it.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“Drake London has to be the happiest receiver in the NFL! His talent and metrics are amazing, but he had the likes of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke throwing him the ball. Now he has Kirk Cousins, who isn’t a world-breaker but is a consistent 4,000-yard passer who throws a hefty amount of touchdowns. Last year, London had 69 receptions on 110 targets for 2 touchdowns. ALL those numbers should increase with Cousins at the helm. London could easily push for discussion at a WR1 by the end of the 2024 season!”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
“TE Kyle Pitts – The Falcons ponied up for the best QB in free agency when they went out and signed veteran Kirk Cousins to a huge deal. Captain Kirk will be the best QB Kyle Pitts has ever played with, and the upgrade should help the Falcons’ offense boldly go where no man has gone before: The end zone! Atlanta also fired head coach Arthur Smith and brought in Raheem Morris to replace him, with Zac Robinson serving as his offensive coordinator. Smith was known for his run-heavy offensive philosophy, whereas Robinson wants to run a quicker, up-tempo offense that is more pass-oriented. Pitts was unstoppable in college, and as long as he and Cousins can stay healthy, it’s logical to think that Pitts will not only dominate this season but for many years to come. “Helm, lock phasers on Kyle Pitts (Ringo’s favorite draft target in 2024)…..Fire Mr. Sulu!””
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
“I don’t know how this could possibly be anyone other than the Falcons skill position players. I’ll pick Kyle Pitts over London for the purposes of this answer, but obviously both take huge steps forward with the QB upgrade from the Kirk Cousins signing. Drake London can be *a* WR1 now, but Pitts can be *the* TE1. I wouldn’t rank him that way just yet, but the upside is there with an above-average QB and likely improved offensive scheme. I’ve been burned by Pitts multiple years in a row, but after this free agency period, I’ll be going back to that well come August.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
“Drake London ranked mid-pack last year in catchable target rate (77%). That number should jump up alongside Kirk Cousins, giving the 22-year-old (in July) a chance at WR1 status. London’s just not a value in early drafts with an Underdog ADP of WR14.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
“Drake London was a huge winner in free agency as he got a massive quarterback upgrade going from Desmond Ridder to Kirk Cousins. Historically, Cousins has been much more capable of delivering an accurate ball to his pass-catchers, and this should allow the Falcons to be less of a run-first option and attempt to use their talented pass-catchers like London and Pitts, who is also a big winner. With Cousins under center for the Falcons, London should easily find himself inside the top-20 receivers come season’s end as his talent gives him the ability to outproduce Jordan Addison‘s numbers with Cousins in 2023.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)
Derrick Henry (RB – BAL)
“Derrick Henry could not have landed in a better spot, going to the Baltimore Ravens. We know Henry is likely to see his insane workload continue to decrease after earning 70 fewer carries in 2023 than he had in 2022, but he was still highly efficient behind a bad Titans line. Now in Baltimore, a much better line and the threat of Lamar Jackson‘s legs will open up massive holes in the defense for Henry to barrel through. With another RB1 season locked in, assuming health, the 30-year-old Henry has risen from his presumed fantasy grave and could be an elite RB option for another few years. ”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
Christian Kirk (WR – JAC)
“Calvin Ridley‘s exodus from Jacksonville leaves Christian Kirk with the opportunity to seize the clear WR1 role. With Calvin Ridley gone, Kirk should compete with Evan Engram for Jacksonville’s weekly target lead. Last season, Kirk opened Week 1 as a part-time player (three targets, 60% snap rate), but Jacksonville quickly remedied that. In Weeks 2-12, when he was healthy, Kirk was the WR19 in fantasy, ranking 23rd in target share and 20th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Kirk will be drafted as a WR3, but he offers steady WR2 production for 2024. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Will Levis (QB – TEN)
“Let’s go with Will Levis. He was good at about one thing last year – pushing the ball downfield. He was top 5 in completed air yards per attempt. He should have clean pockets in 2024 with line issues being addressed through legendary coaching and new bodies. After Chigoziem Okonkwo was the Titans second most targeted player in 2023, the schematic refresh that comes with a new head coach and skill players are welcome changes. Sink or float time for Will Levis.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
Zamir White (RB – LV)
“The biggest rise has to be Zamir White on the Raiders. The Raiders allowed Josh Jacobs to walk, and the team only brought Ameer Abdullah back into the fold. White showed he could handle a workhorse role at the end of the 2023 season. While the team could draft someone, the draft class is weaker than the last few years. White was a nice asset to have sat on in dynasty, and if all goes well, his already rising value could rise to a top 50 pick in redrafts for 2024. ”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
“Zamir White has seen his fantasy value skyrocket following the signing of Alexander Mattison. White enters his third NFL season as the clear lead back in Las Vegas after finishing the final four weeks of the 2023 season with 15.2 fantasy points per game. While most of his damage is done on the ground (4.7 yards per carry over the aforementioned period), White is a capable pass-catcher and can serve as a safety valve for whoever lines up under center. Mattison, on the other hand, almost immediately ceded touches to Cam Akers in 2023 only to be released for Ty Chandler and eventually Aaron Jones to lead the Vikings backfield in 2024.”
– Chew Russell (Going For 2)
Greg Dortch (WR – ARI)
“Greg Dortch looked like a fantasy non-factor after a modest 2023 season with 24 catches and 280 yards. But the long-time backup may have a starting slot job after the Cardinals traded Rondale Moore to the Falcons. And Dortch teased a high ceiling with 6.7 catches and 63 yards per game in the seven games Moore missed in 2022.”
– Scott Spratt (FTN)
Chase Brown (RB – CIN)
“Joe Mixon‘s departure from Cincinnati creates an exciting opportunity for Chase Brown, who looked terrific last season in limited opportunities. Brown had 44 carries for 179 yards and no touchdowns as a rookie, but he was electric when the Bengals used him in the passing game, where he caught 14-of-15 targets for 156 yards and a touchdown. That works out to 10.4 yards per target. Granted, it’s a small sample, but Brown is fast and shifty, and he’s proven capable of handling a big load, having averaged 27.3 carries a game in his final college season at Illinois. The Bengals signed Zack Moss, and it’s possible they’ll draft a running back. But with Mixon out of the picture, Brown is going to get more touches in 2024 and could become a valuable fantasy asset.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
What player has seen his fantasy value decrease the most as a result of a recent transaction and why?
Justin Fields (QB – PIT)
“Justin Fields was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers. From a potential top-5 fantasy QB to Russell Wilson‘s backup…Fields’ stock has been nuked over the past month. In a dynasty, it’s hard to believe he can recover. But for 2024, it’s hardly a stretch to forecast him in for starts where he can be extremely fantasy-viable. He scored over 22 points per game last season.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“It has to be Justin Fields. While there is still a chance Fields could end up starting, I think the Steelers want a safer play with Wilson. Fields comes from a weekly starter due to his rushing upside to being a backup for the Steelers. While they say there is a battle, I think Wilson comes away with the job because the Steelers want a veteran approach who can game manage this team with a good defense. Fields’ value is dropping in dynasty, and he won’t be on redraft radars unless something happens to Wilson.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
“Name a young, starting quarterback who got traded (Mac Jones, Sam Howell, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Justin Fields). All were starters last year and are now backups in all their locations. The biggest hit for fantasy owners THIS YEAR is Justin Fields. This once top 5 dynasty quarterback had a down year in 2023 by most standards, but he still managed 657 yards on the ground, which is where his value resides. Now, he is the backup to Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh and will more than likely hold a clipboard this year. (If you are looking ahead, he could be the starter in 2025, as he will make $25 million that year.)”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Calvin Ridley (WR – TEN)
“Although the Titans gave Calvin Ridley the bag in free agency, he’s now in one of the worst possible spots imaginable for a wide receiver. Will Levis still appears as though he’ll need some time to develop. DeAndre Hopkins will also challenge Ridley’s alpha status, while RBs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, and TE Chig Okonkwo are all capable pass catchers who will earn looks in the short area of the field. Additionally, the Titans’ offensive line is still in need of an upgrade or two, meaning intermediate-to-deep area opportunities could be few and far between. Though the reality fit here benefits the Titans a ton, Ridley’s fantasy fit, unfortunately, takes a huge hit.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
“Calvin Ridley got a four-year, $92 million deal from the Titans that includes $46.9 million in guaranteed money, but you can’t buy high-quality targets. Will Levis’ rookie season was the oft-used Chris Farley gif — brief excitement followed by confusion and dismay. Levis threw four TD passes in his first start for the Titans, then needed eight starts to throw four more. The rookie quarterback completed 57.5% of his passes over his last eight games and had a passer rating of 77.5. Not only does Ridley get a QB downgrade, but he now has to compete for targets with DeAndre Hopkins. Ridley wasn’t fabulous last season, but he wasn’t bad either, with 76 catches for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns in his first full season since 2020. Ridley might have been drafted as a WR2 this fall had the landing spot been better, but Tennessee is going to be kryptonite for his fantasy value.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Austin Ekeler (RB – WAS)
“Landing in Washington, Austin Ekeler will be the passing-down complement to Brian Robinson and shouldn’t be considered the favorite for goal-line work. Head Coach Dan Quinn has already talked up Robinson in the media, and I expect him to be the favorite for the short-yardage work with his size and skill set. If Washington drafts Jayden Daniels, Ekeler is in even bigger trouble because all of the short check-down options that have helped to fuel his recent monster seasons will be minimal. From a yearly RB1 to an RB3 in 2024, the fall from grace struck Ekeler quickly. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)
“Dak Prescott. It’s always a good process to fade pocket quarterbacks coming off great seasons, but we have a couple more reasons to do so in Dallas. Tyron Smith just left in free agency. He was PFF’s highest-graded pass blocker in 2023. And unsung hero Tony Pollard. He was impressively inefficient with his goal-line work in 2023. It’s a number that should regress regardless of the running back in 2024. When that causes Dak’s TDs to fall from the mid-30s to the 20-30 range, he becomes a non-difference maker at a cost in 2024 drafts.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
“Justin Herbert’s fantasy value has tanked over the past few weeks, with Jim Harbaugh reshaping the roster to fit Greg Roman’s offense. The Los Angeles Chargers traded away Keenan Allen, released Mike Williams, and let Austin Ekeler walk in free agency. They have replaced the three star players with a pair of blocking tight ends and Gus Edwards. While the Chargers could add a wide receiver with their first-round pick in the NFL Draft, Quentin Johnston or Joshua Palmer currently is Herbert’s No. 1 pass catcher.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
“For me, this is a tie between the Justin Fields and Justin Jefferson. I guess you could say Ringo thinks their fantasy outlooks are “Just-in” trouble haha! Anyway, I digress, Jefferson lost his QB, Kirk Cousins, to free agency and for the time being, it’s Sam Darnold throwing him the rock (*note- the most TDs Darnold has ever thrown in a season is 19!). However, if Minnesota drafts highly regarded rookie Drake Maye or even Michigan star J.J. McCarthy, that changes things. I’ll reconsider if either QB has a solid preseason and starts sooner rather than later, but until then, I’m not as confident in Sam Darnold running the Vikings’ offense as my peers in the fantasy industry are. As for Fields, Steelers’ head coach, Mike Tomlin, was adamant that Russell Wilson is the starter and Fields is the backup, which kills Fields’ value unless this situation changes.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)
“Jordan Addison – A bad quarterback does not always sink a No. 1 receiver in fantasy, and I suspect Justin Jefferson will balance fewer on-target team pass attempts with a higher target share and survive the downgrade from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold. I’m less confident about Addison. The sophomore receiver excelled despite Cousins’ injury in 2023, but he enjoyed much of his second-half success as a temporary No. 1 with Jefferson also injured. I’m skeptical Darnold can keep the chains moving and rack up 600-plus pass attempts to support two different receivers in fantasy.”
– Scott Spratt (FTN)
Chase Brown (RB – CIN)
“Chase Brown has seen his fantasy value take a noticeable dip after the signing of Zach Moss. The signing of Moss is in line with the pay cut requested of Mixon last year and the signing of Mike Gesicki, which is to say the Bengals want to be cost-effective at certain positions. I expect the Bengals to draft a rookie RB with a Day two or three pick. But what is more important is that Moss carried the load in Jonathan Taylor‘s stead, while Brown merely complimented Mixon’s workload. Brown is an electric back but he is not likely poised to take over the Bengals backfield.”
– Chew Russell (Going For 2)
Tony Pollard (RB – TEN)
“Most analysts are rightfully putting Tyjae Spears in this category, but I’m going with his new backfield-mate Tony Pollard. Obviously, last season was a disappointment from the Cowboy as he learned how to live without Zeke Elliott and also worked his way back from his leg injury, but I had tons of optimism for a big 2024 from the RB. Now he heads to a team with a first-year head coach, a terrible OL, a young QB with a *lot* of question marks, and a young RB who does a lot of the same things Pollard does. I still love the player, but even after Tennessee committed real money to Pollard, count me out on the situation.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Treylon Burks (WR – TEN)
“I was hopeful that Treylon Burks would make strides under new HC Brian Callahan. Maybe he still does – but it’s hard to envision a meaningful fantasy contribution. The Titans signed Calvin Ridley to a four-year deal with nearly $47 million guaranteed. He joins a suddenly-deep offense that’ll also funnel touches to DeAndre Hopkins and Tony Pollard.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
Kirk Cousins (QB – ATL)
“While his new pass-catchers have seen their stock rise significantly, the change of scenery is not nearly as beneficial to Kirk Cousins. Cousins goes from a group of weapons that included Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson and will now find himself throwing to only Drake London and Kyle Pitts. While London and Pitts have loads of potential and could still keep Cousins fantasy relevant, they are nowhere near as good as the superstar duo of Hockenson and Jefferson.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)
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