With NFL Free Agency largely in the rearview, it’s time to look at fantasy football draft values. There were players that were helped and others hurt during the NFL free agency process. Let’s dissect which players are trending up and who is trending down.
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Players Trending Up
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
One of the biggest sources of frustration over the last three years has been Kyle Pitts, who was viewed as a generational talent coming out of college with people arguing you could draft him at the 1.01 in Superflex rookie drafts, despite quarterbacks being so valuable. What nobody saw coming, however, was Arthur Smith, a man content to pour high-end draft capital into offensive weapons and then just let them languish under horrendously average quarterback play. In 2022, only 59% of Pitts’ targets were deemed catchable, way down from the league average of 79%. Despite increasing to 69% in 2023, it was still well below the league average. Pitts finally has a good quarterback for the first time in his NFL career and will be in a more pass-focused attack. Kirk Cousins has helped Jordan Reed and TJ Hockenson get to the cusp of 1,000-yard seasons. The new coaching staff needs Cousins to target Pitts plenty so they can evaluate his future with the team. It’s now or never for Pitts.
Joe Mixon (RB – HOU)
The writing was on the wall for Joe Mixon in Cincinnati. After seven years with various off-the-field headlines and the team searching for more explosivity, a change of scenery was needed for all involved. However, most people didn’t expect Mixon to latch onto a new team in the Texans quite as quickly as he did or for said new team to reward him with a three-year contract for $27 million. The Texans provide no competition for Mixon outside of Dameon Pierce, who failed to impress under the new offensive scheme in 2023, finishing the year as a special teams-only player. Mixon relies on high-value touches like receptions and touchdowns at this point in his career. With little competition, though, he should still survive as a top-24 RB for at least one more year.
Derrick Henry (RB – BAL)
It’s uncommon for 30-year-old running backs to get multi-year deals in the NFL. Derrick Henry has been unusual at every point of his career, though. Henry has faced 120 more eight-man boxes than the next nearest running back over the last three years. While that could work against Tennessee, two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson ranked first in EPA against loaded boxes last year and will keep defenses more honest. Henry continues to be excellent after contact and while his yards per game has decreased for four straight years to 68.6, he still hasn’t rushed for fewer than 4.2 yards per carry across any season of his career. Henry has scored double-digit touchdowns in six straight years and now gets to run as part of an offense that helped Gus Edwards score 13 touchdowns in 2023.
NFL defenders halfway through a game with Lamar Jackson & Derrick Henry in the same backfield: pic.twitter.com/s5fa2K2jwQ
— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) March 12, 2024
Gus Edwards (RB – LAC)
Speaking of Gus Edwards, the former Raven found himself on the free agent market for the first time since joining the Ravens as an undrafted free agent in 2018. Edwards scored a career-high 13 rushing touchdowns in 2023, the first time he’d scored more than six in his career. However, Edwards looked like he’d lost a little juice, rushing for below 5.1 yards per carry on the season for the first time in his career, with his average dropping to a still respectable 4.1. With the Chargers moving on from nearly all their pass-catchers and Greg Roman set to install his run-heavy offense, a reunion with Gus Edwards made sense after their history in Baltimore. Edwards lacks the ceiling we’d truly love for fantasy football, but he’s in an ideal scheme and will have the trust of his coaches, which can often be enough for weekly Flex consideration.
Gus Edwards scored 13 TDs last season:
7 yards
4
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 13, 2024
Caleb Williams (QB – USC)
The presumed future Chicago Bears quarterback has had a fantastic week without lifting a finger. The Bears came to terms with pass-catching running back D’Andre Swift as soon as the legal tampering window opened. They then followed that by adding Gerald Everett, who worked with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron for four seasons with the Rams. The icing on the cake was trading for 2023’s WR3 in points per game, Keenan Allen, who worked with wide receivers coach Chris Beatty in L.A. for the last three years. Allen will be an ideal safety blanket for Williams, who has a far better chance of success than Justin Fields ever did in Chicago.
Marquise Brown (WR – KC)
The wide receiver market was slow to pick up with the cream of the crop being retained by their teams and a strong rookie class quelling the interest in paying up for the position right now. Marquise Brown was looking for his third team on the expiration of his rookie contract after a lackluster couple of years in Arizona. Brown has spent his NFL career in offenses that preferred to run the ball. Passing was rarely a priority under Kliff Kingsbury as the Cardinals ranked 16th in pass rate during his tenure. It was even worse in Baltimore where Greg Roman’s offense passed at the fourth-lowest rate. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have ranked first in that category for the last five seasons. Even as the third option for Patrick Mahomes, Brown can shine in this offense.
Players Trending Down
Kenny Pickett (QB – PHI)
The writing was on the wall for Kenny Pickett when he returned from injury and the team elected to continue to start Mason Rudolph in must-win fixtures. There are few ways back from a benching of that variety but the Steelers can be hard-headed. Just look at their continued use of Najee Harris over Jaylen Warren for further proof. All the noise out of Pittsburgh this offseason was that the Steelers retained some faith in Pickett and he would have a chance to compete for the starting job once again. When Russell Wilson was signed and promised the first snaps, Pickett threw his toys out of the stroller and wanted out of the Steel City. Pickett is a soon-to-be 26-year-old quarterback who showed zero signs of development in his two years as the starter, throwing 13 touchdowns in 24 starts. He has now shown no willingness to compete for a job and is unlikely to be fantasy relevant ever again.
38-year old Joe Flacco has 13 passing touchdowns this December.
Kenny Pickett has 13 touchdowns in his career.
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) December 29, 2023
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
The Vikings seem to have a succession plan for their quarterback position, allowing Kirk Cousins to walk for nothing and trading up to the 1.11 in next month’s NFL Draft. They now own two first-round picks and have enough capital to get as high as the third to fifth pick depending on how teams value their current spots. Whomever the new quarterback is, they’ll likely be a better option than Sam Darnold. Over the past three seasons, Darnold ranks 35th in catchable throw rate out of 38 QBs and 37th out of 38 QBs in turnover-worthy throw rate. Regardless of who the quarterback is, it will likely be a downgrade from Kirk Cousins, who has been a highly accurate quarterback at all levels of the field. If there is any drop-off in efficiency the team will have fewer plays per game and struggle to stay on the field, making life very hard for Justin Jefferson to repay first-round draft capital.
Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN)
Not too long ago the Titans leadership was referring to Tyjae Spears as “made of the right s–t” and talking up his chances to touch the ball an awful lot in 2024. Fast forward to the first day of legal tampering and the Titans saw fit to give Tony Pollard a three-year, $24 million deal that left us with nothing but question marks. Spears and Pollard fit similar roles and it’s hard to second-guess how the Titans envision this backfield split. Tennessee had to spend their abundance cap space but pouring resources into running back as a priority is confounding on many levels. It’s anyone’s guess who the most relevant player will be in 2024.
Tyjae Spears’ RB1 relevance
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) March 11, 2024
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
It’s unavoidable just how bad a couple of weeks it has been for Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ passing offense. Austin Ekeler, an elite pass-catching back, has been replaced by Gus Edwards. Gerald Everett and Keenan Allen are in Chicago. Mike Williams is now a free agent. Herbert is doing his best Fresh Prince impression staring at an empty room and wondering who he’s supposed to pass the ball to in 2024. Allen led the league with 11.5 targets per game in 2023, as Quentin Johnston couldn’t catch anything and Josh Palmer was inconsistent. The Chargers reshaped their tight end room bringing in Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst — neither have any yards after the catch ability. Without substantial upgrades soon, Herbert will plummet in average draft position (ADP). We’ve seen quarterbacks be efficient in Greg Roman’s offense but Herbert needs something to work with.
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