We are down to the final two major fantasy baseball draft weekends. It is time to fine-tune the players we target on draft day. We all know the early-round picks are good players but the middle and end rounds are where drafts can be won and lost.
The middle rounds are clutch, as you can find many picks that have the potential to be early-round picks by season’s end. Below I highlight some of my top targets in the middle rounds (round 11-20 in a 12-team league).
Fantasy Baseball Mid-Round Targets
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B – CIN)
Christian Encarnacion-Strand was a highly-touted prospect entering the 2023 season. He was crushing it at Triple-A, hitting 20 home runs while hitting .331 over 67 games. He finally got the call to the bigs, and over 63 games, he hit 13 home runs while hitting .270. Encarnacion-Strand struck out nearly 29% of the time with the Reds, up from 21.8% at AAA, but that can still improve. His power transferred nicely to the majors and was supported by a 10.5% barrel rate and 48.4% hard-hit rate.
The biggest question entering draft season would be playing time as Noelvi Marte would play third base and the Reds signed Jeimer Candelario to play first base, not to mention a lot of other mouths to feed. The playing time concerns have been eased as Marte is suspended for 80 games for PED use and other injuries to the Reds in Spring Training. Encarnacion-Strand should now play 130+ games this year, which could lead to 30+ home runs with solid counting stats and an excellent batting average. First base is a deep position but Encarnacion-Strand stands out as a player that could move up to a top-tier first baseman by season’s end.
Thairo Estrada (2B, SS – SF)
Thairo Estrada was a primary target of mine last year. It worked out in 120 games. He only played in 120 games due to a hit-by-pitch fluke injury. He still hit 14 home runs and stole 23 bases while hitting .271. Estrada is back and healthy entering 2024 and should be the primary second baseman for an improved Giants team. He may not lead off with the addition of Jung Hoo Lee but at-bats should be widely available. If he can play over 140 games, aka stay healthy, then a ceiling of 20 home runs and 35 steals could be in play, which is outstanding at his current average draft position (ADP). He is also one of the last-second basemen that makes you feel comfortable in the position as the draft progresses.
Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B – PIT)
Since joining the Pirates, we have been waiting for Ke’Bryan Hayes to do two things: Stay healthy and start elevating baseballs. The health part may still be up in the air but he was healthy in the second half of the season, which was great. When healthy over that second half, Hayes also elevated the ball, increasing his power output. Over the second half of the season, Hayes hit .299 with 10 home runs. He barreled the ball 8.5% of the time with a hard-hit rate of 50.6%. Hayes has carried over those power gains this spring. A monster breakout could be in store in 2024.
Logan O’Hoppe (C – LAA)
There were some solid expectations for Logan O’Hoppe entering 2023 but a severe injury nearly ended his season. Initially, there were thoughts he might not return, but he did in August, and it could not have gone any worse. Things did change as he became healthy. O’Hoppe appeared to get going in September as he hit .258 with nine home runs. O’Hoppe had a 20.9% barrel rate and 47.8% hard-hit rate to go with a .323 ISO. O’Hoppe showcased his actual skills — skills we should expect to see in 2024. He is being drafted far too low and is my favorite catcher at his price on draft day.
Christopher Morel (OF – CHC)
Christopher Morel is a pure upside on power target in the draft. In 107 games for the Cubs last season, Morel hit .247, 27 home runs, 70 RBIs and 62 runs. He also stole six bases. I’ll take that sort of production in 2024. Morel does strike out a lot at 31% of the time. Hopefully, he can improve in that department. Morel is a power monster that can also supply some steals and makes for an excellent upside target at this point of the draft as an OF3 or OF4.
Maikel Garcia (3B – KC)
I have been preaching about Maikel Garcia as a late-round value all draft season as people look at projections. The predictions are wrong, though, as Garcia should lead off for the Royals this season. He’s been leading off for the Royals for nearly all spring. Last year, Garcia hit four home runs and stole 23 bases over 123 games as he played more of a utility role. This year, he should lead off and play third base every day, giving him 35+ steal upside with 90+ runs, a solid batting average and some pop. If you miss at third base or need some steals later in your draft, Garcia should be a primary target.
Ezequiel Tovar (SS – COL)
In his rookie season, Ezequiel Tovar hit 15 home runs while stealing 11 bases over 153 games. That’s a nice first run as the regular at shortstop for the Rockies. We can expect more from Tovar. He could get to 20 home runs, but more importantly, he’s a 20-25 stolen base player. Coors Field will help Tovar hit for average, and if he can hit toward the top of the order some more, he may score more runs. Shortstop begins to dry up after Tovar, so he’s a solid option as one of the last shortstops or an MI option in his age-22 season.
Brandon Pfaadt (SP – ARI)
I like a lot of bats in the mid-rounds but here is a pitcher I am targeting everywhere. Brandon Pfaadt entered 2023 with high expectations but it took him a while to get going. After a few trips back and forth between Triple-A and the bigs, Pfaadt finally locked into a solid role. When recalled in late July, he compiled a 4.22 ERA the rest of the way, which was better than his nearly 10 ERA in the first half of the season. He also improved his K-BB% to 19.1% from 9% in the first half. Pfaadt kept improving in the postseason, and hopefully, it will carry over into 2024. I’ll take that chance as my SP5 in drafts.
Kyle Harrison (SP – SF)
Kyle Harrison is a pure upside target in the back end of the middle rounds. He threw over 100 innings between the minors and majors last year and will be locked into the Giants rotation until he hits an innings limit. Harrison has a substantial strikeout upside but walks are a concern for many. He improved on those walks as the season went on, especially with the Giants once he was called up. Learning from Logan Webb and Blake Snell could help Harrison tremendously as well. I love the gamble on this young arm later in drafts.
Taylor Ward (OF – LAA)
There is no reason Taylor Ward should be going this late in drafts. He was going higher in drafts last year but some must be looking at his overall stats to draft him this late. Sadly, the stats are skewed, as he missed a lot of time after being hit in the face with a baseball. He seems comfortable this spring and a healthy Ward should be a solid asset to fantasy rosters. Ward can provide a quality batting average and 20+ home run power, which works well for your OF3 or OF4.
Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
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